If a new referendum on Britain’s EU membership were held today, Brexit would be reversed, a new poll suggests.
A clear majority of all voters say they would choose to rejoin the EU.
Strikingly, support for reversing the UK’s decision to cut ties with Brussels among Generation Z – who were too young to take part in the 2016 referendum – is two to one.
The public believes that Brexit has made almost everything worse: from the economy to immigration, the cost of living, health care, wages, exports and Britain’s position abroad, to hopes of keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the union.
Although Brexit has become less popular among the general public, it seems likely that a second referendum will take place at some point.
The findings of a study by Redfield & Wilton follow Sir Keir Starmer’s initiatives to strengthen Britain’s ties with the EU.
Although the Prime Minister is a staunch opponent of Brexit, he has made it clear he has no intention of reviewing the decision, which was passed by a 52-48 majority in a referendum eight years ago.
In an interview with reporters in Wales two days before the general election in July, Sir Kier said: “I have been very clear that I do not want to go back to the EU, the single market or the customs union, and I do not want to go back to the free movement of people.
“I have also made it clear that I believe we can get a better deal than the failed deal we got under Boris Johnson – on trade, research and development and security.”
Sir Keir’s supporters say a second referendum would be divisive and distract from his main goal of repairing public finances and public services.
Other prominent figures within the Labour Party were more outspoken.
In an interview with The Independent Editor-in-Chief Geordie Greig and former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair said Brexit had failed and had caused “unprecedented mass immigration”.
Redfield & Wilton’s research provides fresh ammunition to those who argue that Brexit has not been a success.
In total, 56 percent say they would vote to return to the EU if a new referendum were held today.
This applies to almost one in four (23 percent) of those who voted for Brexit in 2016.
In total, 44 percent say they would vote to stay out. This includes 17 percent who voted Remain eight years ago.
In fact, the number of people wanting to rejoin has been even higher in the past, down five percent since June, before the election.
Among 18- to 24-year-olds, including Gen Z, a total of 61 percent would vote to rejoin, while only 28 percent would vote to remain outside the party.
There is similar support for re-entering the EU among 25- to 44-year-olds. Support for remaining outside the EU is most prominent among those aged 55 and over.
More than half (52 percent) of voters want a new Brexit referendum within five years, including 73 percent of those who voted Remain in 2016.
In total, 34 percent are against a second referendum.
For the first time since Redfield & Wilton began conducting this type of polling in 2021, voters believe another referendum is likely within the next 10 years.
In total, 34 percent expect a second referendum within ten years; 31 percent disagreed.
Regardless of whether people want another referendum or not, they overwhelmingly believe that the situation in Britain has deteriorated as a direct result of Brexit – on all fronts.
When asked whether the economy is stronger or weaker than it would have been if Brexit had not happened, 43 percent said the economy is weaker; 22 percent said the economy is stronger.
When questions were asked in similar terms on a wide range of other issues, the same picture of a Brexit-induced decline emerged:
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39 percent said immigration is higher because of Brexit, compared to 21 percent who said it is lower
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58 percent said the cost of living is higher, compared to 18 percent who said it is lower
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31 percent said wages are lower, compared to 18 percent who said they are higher
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41 percent said it had become harder for Britain to sell goods abroad, compared to 17 percent who said it had become easier
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40 percent said Britain had less influence on the world stage, compared to 21 percent who said it had more influence
The research tellingly suggests that voters believe they have been misled by Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson, who toured the country in a red bus with the slogan that the NHS would get an extra £350m a week once the UK left the EU.
Overall, 45 percent say the NHS has gotten worse as a result of Brexit, while just 13 percent say the situation has improved.
When asked whether Brexit has had a negative or positive impact on the UK so far, 34 percent said it has been negative, while 31 percent said it has been positive.
Voters by a small majority think that Brexit has increased the chances of Scotland becoming independent at some point and Northern Ireland joining the Republic of Ireland.
Despite the largely gloomy view of Brexit in the polls, 35 percent said the UK had been given more say over its own affairs, compared with 30 percent who said the country had less say, in line with the Brexiteers’ mantra of taking back control.
And fewer than one in four consider Brexit an ‘extremely’ important issue.
Furthermore, 38 percent said they believe Brexit will have positive consequences for the UK in the future, although the current impact is seen as negative. Only 33 percent said it would have negative consequences.
Overall, 44 percent said they saw the 2016 referendum as the final say on Brexit, while 40 percent said they did not believe it would resolve the issue.
Philip van Scheltinga of Redfield & Wilton said: “The polls are certainly favourable for a ‘re-entry’, but they do not point to a slam dunk.
“While voters are generally disappointed with Brexit, they have other priorities.
“It is for the government to judge whether pursuing change in the UK’s relationship with the EU is consistent with those higher priorities.”
Mr Van Scheltinga questioned whether Sir Keir would want to use his “hard-earned political capital” to reopen the Brexit debate and risk “getting seriously bogged down” by it.
Redfield & Wilton interviewed 2,000 adults in the UK online on August 19.