Rachel Reeves will announce Labor’s first budget in 15 years on October 30, as speculation mounts over what measures could be included.
The Chancellor faces a difficult task as the Budget event plays out against the backdrop of the £22 billion ‘black hole’ of public spending she announced at the end of July.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has also warned that the Budget event will be “painful” but that there is “no other choice given the situation we find ourselves in”.
Many experts assume this means tax increases are in the offing, along with possible spending cuts. But with an absolute pledge not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT – the three biggest sources of revenue – the chancellor will have to look elsewhere to raise vital revenue.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said she has a difficult task ahead of her because she has “given herself little room to manoeuvre”.
“Many of the tools best suited to the task of generating significant revenues have been put out of reach,” IFS economist Isaac Delestre added.
In light of this, Ms. Reeves’ announcement is likely to be lengthy, with smaller changes and adjustments that, when combined, could make a big difference.
Here’s a look at some of the announcements the Chancellor could consider in her first Budget.
Capital gains reform
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset that has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things such as the sale of personal property worth more than £6,000 (excluding a car), property that is not the seller’s main residence, shares and business assets.
Taxpayers on a basic rate will be charged 10 or 18 percent, and 20 or 24 percent for those on a higher or additional rate. There is a tax-free allowance of € 3,000.
There are several ways in which CBT can be modified. In the run-up to the election, both the Lib Dems and Greens said they would reconsider tax bands to become more similar to income tax, which would raise an estimated £5.2 billion a year.
Taxing pension savings
Pension tax relief is a reduction in the tax paid on private pensions. It helps employees save for retirement by increasing their pension pots.
The amount of tax relief a person receives is based on their income tax. It will effectively remove tax on pension contributions up to a maximum of £60,000.
After this, the contributions are taxed at 20, 40 or 45 percent, depending on the income tax rate the employee falls under.
However, the Chancellor is thought to be considering a flat-rate pension tax cut of 30 per cent. This would mean that higher income earners would actually pay 10 percent tax, while those with the additional rate would pay 15 percent.
The measure would raise around £3 billion a year, with seven million earners paying more tax. But it would be better news for people on basic wages, who would effectively get a 10 percent increase on their pension contributions.
Reviewing the idea last year, the IFS said it would “redistribute the tax burden from the bottom 80 percent to the top 20 percent of earners.”
Inheritance tax reform
Inheritance tax is a levy on the estate of someone who has died. These are their assets, money and assets. Crucially, no payment will be made if the value of these items is less than £325,000.
The tax rate is 40 percent, but is only levied on the portion of the estate that is above the threshold. In 2023/2024, just 5 percent of deaths generated an inheritance tax bill, raising around £7 billion.
However, the IFS writes that the tax measure is “littered with special exemptions”. This includes an entrepreneur’s deduction, the option to pass on agricultural land tax-free and the tax-free passing on of pension pots.
The economic think tank says ending these measures alone would save £4.8 billion a year by 2029.
Cuts in welfare spending
Labor has made no secret of its ambition to cut the government’s social spending, so Ms Reeves is likely to use the Budget as her opportunity to do so.
Speaking at the Labor party conference, the Prime Minister said: “We will get the welfare bill down because we will tackle long-term illness and get people back to work.”
What has been confirmed is a crackdown on benefits fraud, which could save £1.6 billion over the next five years. Also possible is the proposed reform of Personal Independence Payments (PIP) to provide cash vouchers or expenses in lieu of regular payments – a Conservative-era policy that Labor has refused to rule out.
Increase in fuel tax
Fuel excises, or taxes, apply to the purchase of gasoline, diesel and a variety of other fuels used both for vehicles and for home heating.
The amount of fuel excise duty depends on the type of fuel used. A fuel excise duty of 52.95 cents applies to a liter of petrol, diesel, biodiesel and bio-ethanol. It was cut by 5 cents by the Conservatives in 2022, after being frozen at 57.95 cents since 2011.
It represents a major source of revenue for the government, which is expected to generate £24.7 billion in 2023-2024 – equivalent to 2.2 per cent of all revenue – according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Removing the 5p cut would save the government an estimated £2 billion. However, this would not automatically force fuel retailers to reduce costs, which would likely mean higher rates for motorists, at least in the short term.
Business rates reform
In its election manifesto, Labor said it was committed to reforming the current business rates system “so we can generate the same revenues, but in a fairer way”.
What this means has not been explained by the party, but it says the new system will be designed to “level the playing field between the high street and the online giants, better stimulate investment, tackle vacant properties and encourage entrepreneurship.” to support”.
It is thought this could take the form of an immediate cut in rates, while also closing loopholes that allow some companies to avoid tax. This will be welcome news for smaller business owners, but Labor will ensure their reforms maintain a net zero monetary level.
Chancellor of the Exchequer James Murray MP confirmed this at a side event to the Labor conference organized by the British Retail Consortium, saying: “It is within the current envelope. It’s all about raising the same amount in total, that’s the stakes.”
Private equity profits
In another manifesto, Labor said it will announce more details of plans to close the private equity tax loophole in the October budget.
As a result of the carried interest law, private equity fund managers pay only 28 percent tax on their income, which is treated as capital gains. This was the result of a successful lobbying campaign in 1987.
Labor has promised to change this by making managers pay the 45 percent higher rate of income tax. It is estimated that the change will save around £600 million a year, with only a few thousand people affected.