The NASA-led Artemis-3 mission will place the first human boots on the lunar surface since Apollo 17’s Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface in December 1972.
The goal of the Artemis program is to establish a permanent human presence on Earth’s natural satellite and an economy based on the moon. Artemis-3 is scheduled to launch no earlier than September 2026. However, further delays are likely and there are still many technical challenges to overcome. Some may wonder if this will happen at all.
I am confident that this will be the case because, unlike the Apollo program, which would be prohibitively expensive in the current climate, the current lunar effort will pay off in financial and exploration terms. Extracting water ice from craters at the moon’s south pole could facilitate travel from the moon to other destinations such as Mars, reducing the cost of space exploration.
This is why the booming space industry currently seems fixated on the moon as a destination – countries simply cannot afford to miss this boat. The space sector can boost entire economies.
In the 1960s, the space race was mainly driven by political and military muscle from the Cold War. There’s still some of that, along with the rush for resources. After 1972, human spaceflight was limited to low Earth orbit when the US switched from the Apollo spacecraft to the space shuttle. But in the 2000s, the US announced it would build new space vehicles to transport astronauts to deep space destinations such as the moon.
Private pioneers
That same decade, the US also made a strategic decision to leverage the ingenuity and cost-effectiveness of young companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin. Owned by some of the richest entrepreneurs in the world – Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos respectively – they are outwardly characterized by passion and risk-taking, but are based on solid business models.
SpaceX’s massive Starship vehicle was contracted by NASA to transport Artemis astronauts between the proposed lunar-orbiting Gateway station and the lunar surface. Starships were destroyed during each of their first three test flights. However, the pace at which the problems are corrected is remarkable, and a year later during Starship’s fourth integrated test flight, both the upper stage and the Super Heavy rocket made soft landings.
This reaffirms SpaceX’s competence in breaking boundaries in innovation and delivering reliable, affordable services. It is known for its upright launch vehicle return landings – essential for human missions to and from the surfaces of the moon and Mars. However, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has been contracted to land the Artemis-5 crew on the moon later this decade, with its own lander. NASA clearly doesn’t want to put all its eggs in one basket.
National and commercial ambitions
Recent attempts to land on the moon have highlighted the fine line between success and failure. A fuel leak ended a mission by the private company Astrobotic in January 2024. It was part of a NASA program aimed at establishing private transportation services to the moon.
A thrust failure caused Russia’s Luna 25 to crash during an attempted first landing near the moon’s south in August 2023. It came as Russia appears to be losing its front-row seat in scientific and commercial space activities. A few days later, India’s Chandrayaan 3 lander successfully landed, making them the fourth country to land softly on the moon.
Japan followed suit in January 2024 when their Slim mission landed. Soon after, Houston-based Intuitive Machines later became the first private company to make a soft (albeit shaky) landing on the moon. The Odysseus lander confirmed NASA’s belief in private sector involvement as the future for sustainable exploitation of the moon.
Long-standing aerospace companies such as Boeing are deeply involved with Artemis. But it seems only a matter of time until relative novices can go it alone, without the burden of a space agency’s bureaucracy and the vagaries of congressional approval.
China is joining the fight
There are two other relevant players in the moon race. The China National Space Administration’s (CNSA) manned space program is catching up quickly. It operates its own Tiangong space station and has replaced Russia as NASA’s main competitor.
China wants to place boots on lunar soil by 2030 and build a base called the International Lunar Research Station. They will work with Russia and several countries with little or no previous space experience, such as South Africa and Egypt. CNSA’s lunar program has been flawless, with the unmanned Chang’e 6 spacecraft landing softly on June 1, 2024. The goal is to return samples of soil and rock from the far side of the moon.
The other player is the US Department of Defense. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Novel Orbital Moon Manufacturing Materials and Mass efficiency Design program are focused on developing the ability to build things in space. The Lunar Architecture study LunA-10, which will be conducted over a period of ten years, aims to develop infrastructure for the lunar economy, such as transportation, wireless power generation and a communications network.
But this intense effort raises ethical questions and the need for enforceable laws and regulations. Is it right to mine the moon? Who owns the land there?
We also need to consider whether the water at the moon’s south pole should be consumed until there is nothing left. The UN Outer Space Treaty dates back to 1967 and stipulates peaceful activities in space and on other celestial bodies. But these are non-binding principles that say little about economic activity. This also applies to the American Artemis Accords, which were signed by 42 countries in May 2024. This does not include China and Russia.
It is almost certain that two moon bases will be in use by the mid-2030s. Private and state-owned companies will exploit the resources, manufacture products, generate energy and provide accommodation options for tourists.
All this is accompanied by technological innovation that can provide solutions on Earth. The race to the moon offers opportunities for peaceful international cooperation and shared economic prosperity. It will also inspire a new generation of engineers and entrepreneurs. For better or for worse, it will be a milestone in the evolution of our species and put Mars within reach as our next destination.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Jacco van Loon does not work for, consult with, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant relationships beyond their academic appointment.