NASA management has been debating at length this week whether to send the agency’s astronauts back into Boeing’s malfunctioning Starliner capsule or opt for the alternative of using a SpaceX craft to rescue the crew.
The agency’s concerns about Starliner, which flew NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station in early June, stem from the fact that no cause has been found for the failure of some of the spacecraft’s thrusters during docking, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.
NASA this week discussed the possibility of sending Starliner back empty and instead using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft to return its astronauts. There is no consensus among those responsible for making the decision, the person said, calling the outcome of NASA’s ongoing discussions unpredictable given the variety of factors involved.
The Starliner capsule “Calypso” has now been in space for 59 days and counting. The mission is intended to serve as the final step in proving that Boeing’s long-delayed spacecraft is safe to fly long-duration crew missions to and from the ISS.
The Boeing crew flight was originally scheduled to last at least nine days. But it has been extended several times as the company and NASA conduct tests both on the ground and in space in an attempt to understand the thruster problem.
While NASA and Boeing leadership have publicly described the extensions as a data-gathering exercise, concerns raised in recent days indicate there is less internal confidence in the safety of Starliner to return astronauts than the agency has disclosed.
Ars Technica was the first to report NASA’s mixed opinion on the Starliner situation. NASA previously noted that SpaceX is serving as a backup, but has attempted to downplay that possibility, calling Boeing’s spacecraft the “primary option” for return.
Boeing, for its part, says it has the “flight rationale” to return the Starliner with the astronauts on board, meaning the company believes the spacecraft can return without too much risk.
“We remain confident in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to safely return with crew. We support NASA’s requests for additional data, analysis and data reviews to confirm the spacecraft’s safe undocking and landing capabilities,” a Boeing spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC on Friday.
If Starliner returns empty, the most likely alternative would be to bring the astronauts back on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, removing two astronauts from the Crew 9 mission — currently scheduled to launch four people in the coming weeks. That would free up two seats for Wilmore and Williams.
NASA did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the ongoing Starliner discussions, but told Ars Technica in a statement that the agency is “evaluating all options for return.”
“No decisions have been made and the agency will continue to provide updates on planning,” NASA said.
Trust in the thrust
After testing over the weekend, NASA noted that 27 of Starliner’s 28 thrusters appear to be healthy. The thrusters, also known as reaction control system engines, or RCS, help propel the spacecraft into orbit.
But from a technical perspective, no cause has been found for the failure of five thrusters during the flight to the ISS. This means that there is a risk that more thrusters will fail during the return flight.
Boeing’s Mark Nappi, vice chairman of the Starliner program, said at a July 25 press conference that testing of the boosters had produced “very significant” findings that “are likely the root cause.” But despite that, the company has not yet identified the root cause.
“We’re going to continue to tear that hardware apart so we can finally prove this,” Nappi said at the time.
NASA must now decide whether to trust that the unknown problem with the Starliner’s thrusters will not recur, or whether it could lead to other problems.
An unpredictable outcome
The lack of consensus at NASA emerged as the Commercial Crew Program Control Board met earlier this week to discuss Starliner’s return. PCBs are a standard part of NASA’s decision-making process dating back to the Space Shuttle era and are an attempt to ensure that all risks can be escalated to the highest levels of the agency’s authority.
The PCB, chaired by Commercial Crew Program Manager Steve Stich, has not yet made a decision on whether to proceed with a flight readiness review, the agency’s next major step toward setting a date for Starliner’s return. The next PCB meeting is expected in the coming days, with NASA noting in a blog post on Thursday that return planning has continued into next week.
If members of the PCB disagree with the decision to return Starliner with crew, the decision will go up the chain of command until the disagreement is resolved. As it stands now, discussions within the PCB have no predictable outcome as NASA personnel debate the level of risk associated with returning crew on Starliner.
Making a choice
NASA often emphasizes that “astronaut safety remains the highest priority” for the agency when making decisions about human spaceflight, an inherently risky endeavor.
But the choice NASA faces has wider implications, threatening Boeing’s involvement in the agency’s Commercial Crew Program. Boeing’s Starliner losses have already exceeded $1.5 billion due to repeated setbacks and years of delays in the spacecraft’s development.
If NASA backs Boeing and brings Wilmore and Williams back on Starliner, the agency is accepting a currently unquantifiable amount of risk. A major failure during reentry, with the lives of the astronauts at stake, would put pressure on NASA leadership to terminate Boeing’s contract and involvement in the program.
If NASA decides to send the Starliner back empty, it would be a vote of no confidence in Boeing, which could lead to the company cutting its losses and pulling out of the program.
Moreover, if NASA chooses SpaceX’s alternative and Starliner returns home without incident, the agency will face a backlash for overreacting to a situation it has publicly stated for weeks posed no significant risk.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com