“Higher floor, lower ceiling” is my feeling heading into 2024, but it is a particularly difficult AFL season to judge. I think all teams except the bottom three mentioned could compete for the finals. I may be miles off when it comes to Sydney and Adelaide, and the Western Bulldogs could be premiers or wooden spooners for all I know.
So here goes another hidden for nothing: part one of Guardian Australia’s 2024 AFL ladder forecaster.
18th – West Coast
“This will pass,” said Adam Simpson after yet another beating last year. Somehow he kept his cool, his hair and his job. Injuries, pandemics, strength and conditioning issues, less committed players, poor roster management and more injuries have all conspired against him. But in 2024, he has a slew of talented big kids. However, the hype surrounding Harley Reid is completely insane, with more column inches devoted to him than to the mayor of Perth.
17th – North Melbourne
2023 was an improvement for the Kangas. They lost 14 games by 45 points or more in 2022, which they cut to six last year. That’s still terrible, you know. North lost nearly 1,500 offseason games and may be without Jy Simpkin for an extended period after Jimmy Webster’s ferocious goal this weekend.
Alastair Clarkson will be buoyed by the 17 first-round picks on his list, several of which are extremely skilled and completely untapped. His problems will be at the back. There will be a lot of goals coming their way. But it promises to be a wild ride for North fans.
16th – Hawthorn
The Hawks beat some really good teams last year: Collingwood, Brisbane, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs. But like most young lists, they had a mixed form. As a player, Sam Mitchell played a patient game. He waited, watched and jumped. As a coach he is similar. All of his statements can be loosely translated as “I know what I’m doing.”
Mitchell has had some bad luck this past summer. They were in dire need of a new key defender and were delighted with the progress of James Blanck. But he tore his ACL minutes after Changkuoth Jiath broke again. “If there were five players I could least spare, I would just lose two,” the coach told Nathan Buckley.
15th – Richmond
Richmond has been in a mild recession for several years. There were some scrapbook memories last year: Trent Cotchin’s 300th, his farewell match with Jack Riewoldt, the greatest hits parade against Geelong and Hawthorn’s comeback. But it was a frustrating season. Tom Lynch and Josh Gibcus were hampered and Damien Hardwick couldn’t get away quickly enough.
The messages are now more careful and realistic. “Look, we’ll always be big and dangerous, but this is no longer the last ditch Dimma throws at the stumps,” is the gist of it. The question marks heading into 2024 include Lynch’s right foot and the gap between the top and bottom six.
14th – Essendon
A ‘bunch of hoes’ Hardwick called them. That is mean. Essendon’s young players are showing glimpses. They have good summers. They have a good fortnight. But they have not yet proven that they are long-distance footballers. They ran aground after parting ways last year. They won three of the last ten. They fell apart against the generationally bad West Coast and North, losing by a total of 33 goals in the final two weeks. The GWS game was a tasting. The match against Collingwood was over within minutes.
The first two months of 2024 look particularly tough – both sides of Adelaide, Sydney away and Collingwood at the MCG, as well as St Kilda and the Bulldogs at the Docklands.
13th – Sydney
A difficult team to judge. There are a lot of people spitting on the Swans, but I’m not convinced their recent form stacks up. They left too many games on the table last year, coughed up too many three-quarter time leads and fell short against the very best. They were lucky to get the four points against Adelaide and won the match in North Melbourne thanks to an administrative error. Their captain spent most of the summer in a sling after some Mad Monday high jinks, and Luke Parker and Taylor Adams will both miss the opening month. For a team that struggled at the coalface last year, that will hurt.
12th – Gold Coast
For Hardwick, the Suns’ roster was the deciding factor. Of course there was the money, the long contract, the chance to get out of Melbourne’s fishbowl and start over with a new tan and a new club. But he liked the list. “A great new set of toys,” he called them. There is potential, but not much evidence. Year after year, these players dip their toes when it matters. They let their previous coach down. They have never been a team you would trust with your life or even your money. They have never been a team willing to dig in and slog through the winter. Hardwick’s style requires total buy-in and trust, two qualities that have thus far eluded this group.
11th – Adelaide
The Crows were the league’s highest scoring team in 2023. They won both Showdowns and twice pushed the eventual premiers to the limit. They played their best football in the lost matches. But they only won two of ten on the road. In the end, despite the miserable decisions, the near misses, the big scores and the joyful romps, they still weren’t good enough.
Adelaide is great to watch and has high expectations. They get a lot more selection games than normal. But to me they still look a little light on the back and in one step through the middle. I think Matthew Nicks is on the right track and they are definitely a team for the future, but I see them treading water this year.
10th – Western Bulldogs
I think we’re missing the point with the Bulldogs. We expect too much from them. Maybe they expect too much of themselves. They are certainly an enigma, undoubtedly a tease. But eventually, in quarters, in games, in months and in seasons, they rise and fall. Just when you’ve given up on them, they drag you back in. When they’re really humming, when Bont and Libba are in full control, they can tease you into thinking they’re the best team in the league. All too often they are exposed by their bottom six, and find themselves up against the very best.
Ninth – Geelong
Almost nothing went right for Geelong last year. They conceded two more goals per game than in 2022, which is very un-Chris Scott-like. At various times his entire starting back six was unavailable. The second Collingwood game summed up their season: moments of brilliance, moments of madness and ultimately well below the norm. Gary Rohan took out his teammate and their key player pretty much summed it up. As always with Gary, you take the good with the bad, even when he knocks you out.
I’m really excited to see their young kids coming through, though, and I originally had them as my sneak shooter for 2024. But I’ve been shocked by Cam Guthrie’s injury, suffered in the first eight seconds of the tightest scratch matches.
AFL 2024 predicted ladder part two will be published tomorrow.