Got lucky. Came in at 18-1*. I feel like this year is for me and you. Well, maybe. Then again, we can just wait until April, Guardiola’s spring surge, a post-operative Kevin De Bruyne, and then take another look.
For now, Arsenal’s visit to Anfield on Saturday evening appears to be a rare opportunity for Jurgen Klopp and Mikel Arteta. In a pleasant cinematic twist, and with all due respect to Aston Villa’s presence in the mix, the penultimate match of the pre-festive pile-up is in fact a play-off for Top Of The League’s main ceremonial role on Christmas Day. .
This shouldn’t mean much in the broader scheme of things. Christmas is not a sports-related event. Christmas is shopping, family regrets and arguments over meat. Christmas has exactly no impact on things like team building, team depth, executive management and all the other elements that actually decide who will win.
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On the other hand: Top Of The League on Christmas Day! In a sport still tied to its own private voodoo of signs, rituals and omens, Top of the Table at Christmas just feels right, an authentic register of things like morale and internal energy. Bring us your snow-clad graphics, your experts in sweaters, the strange energy of the Match of the Day Christmas tree, the feeling above all of plot points and markers in the year.
If you dig a little, the Christmas Power Rankings are also an accurate indicator of future performance. Ten of the past fourteen Premier League titles have been won on Christmas Day by the team at the top of the table. The other four were won by Manchester City. There are basically two options here. Set the table for Christmas. Or be Manchester City. The only teams to surpass City in that period – Chelsea, Manchester United, Leicester and Liverpool – were the hare in both mid-winter and spring.
With this in mind, Saturday afternoon looks less like a box-ticking ritual, and more like a step towards real frontrunner status. If City were involved elsewhere, victory would put Arsenal eight points and Liverpool seven points clear of Pep Guardiola’s serial champions.
Moreover, there is a question of development here, of comparing yourself with your nearest equal. At the end of a week in which the Premier League broadcasters seemed genuinely offended by Liverpool and Manchester United’s refusal to present a suitably jazzy spectacle, these are two teams that make for a fascinating contrast.
It is common to compare Arteta’s methods with those of his former boss at the Etihad. But there are also powerful similarities with the way Klopp has built his Liverpool teams. Both have aimed to create a basic level of energy in pressing and attacking combinations, and from there impose a degree of control, defensive solidity and the ability to retain possession, which are non-negotiable qualities in sustaining a title challenge.
In this sense, team building is a bit like making French onion soup. The first phase, which Liverpool are still in, is adding heat, energy, flavours, mixing and refining, taking wrong turns and adjusting the settings.
Then you do what Arsenal have done this season. You settle and steepen and reduce, making this substance thicker and more concentrated, and in itself more comfortable.
Four years into Mikel’s era, Arsenal are at least a season ahead of Klopp’s last iteration. But for both, success will depend on finding a balance between control and intensity.
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A comparison can be drawn between the way Arteta contained last season’s young title challengers and the way Klopp moved from the exciting, enthusiastic style of Mohamed Salah’s first season to the more mature title-chasing machine that followed.
The current team is certainly in a more volatile phase. Liverpool rank second in the top five European leagues in terms of shots per game, with a total of also 123 shots off target, more than any other Premier League team. The numbers are pretty wild overall. Seventh team with the most offsides in Europe. Most own goals. Most red cards in the Premier League. Constant personnel changes (eight forward combinations in the last 10 games). This is the abandonment phase, the energy phase, the onion sizzle phase, the part that is exciting with its possibilities while also requiring constant patience.
Arsenal, on the other hand, is in the wind-down phase. This season has been about control: tied last in Europe (with City) in shots against, 89th out of 96 when it comes to taking cards (Arteta is their equal most booked person, tied with infamous powerhouse Kai Havertz).
After the match against Brighton, Roberto De Zerbi said his team was overwhelmed by Arsenal’s physical intensity and positional discipline, reminiscent of the way Klopp’s most powerful Liverpool teams wore down their opponents a few seasons ago.
Arsenal are also in good form now, feeling close to the point where changes in personnel and formation will be tactical, tailored to the opponent, rather than a matter of still searching for chemistry.
Arteta has basically played the same team since the 6-0 defeat to Lens, with a Havertz/Rice/Ødegaard midfield plus Saka/Jesus/Martinelli in attack. This thing is still cooking, but it’s thicker, stickier, and almost done.
Despite this, Liverpool remain boss at home, with seven wins and a draw in eight games this season and only five goals conceded, three of which came in the wild comeback win against Fulham. Arsenal have also had a 4-3, but there have also been seven one-nils or two-nils. This is their version of control. Will it be enough?
Whatever happens on Saturday will obviously be overshadowed by option two: the City Supremacy, a team with the capacity for the kind of run that simply changes the weather and takes the chase out of everyone else’s hands.
*Actual chances of Arsenal or Liverpool winning the title: 5-2 and 11-4. Don’t gamble. Watch the match instead. The fun never really begins.