(Bloomberg) — From tractors stuck in muddy paddocks to raw sewage flushing from clogged waterways, extreme rain and flooding have wreaked havoc on British farmers this year. The soggy and turbulent weather – exacerbated by climate change – has hampered their ability to supply home-grown crops for bread, beer and almost every supermarket aisle.
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According to the Met Office, Britain has experienced its sixth wettest spring since records began in 1836. The outcome has devastated fields growing cereals such as wheat and barley, which the UK usually produces at levels largely in the can meet domestic needs. The unusual conditions have also delayed the supply of British strawberries and even led to the deaths of livestock.
As a result, Britain will become 8% less self-sufficient in food this year – meaning it will have to boost imports, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think tank. The potential for this to contribute to food price inflation reminds us of the growing threat that climate change poses to the UK economy.
For crops like potatoes, “we’re seeing contraction in the supermarkets as they try to keep prices the same,” said Harry Campbell, a fruit and vegetable analyst at commodity data firm Mintec. Campbell says purchasing companies are looking elsewhere to support the supply of affected crops and are using contracts to mitigate risk, but their goal is to “make a profit and those profits will ultimately be passed on to consumers if the situation does not improve due to weather conditions . .”
After volatile commodity prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fueled a cost-of-living crisis around the world, countries have begun to consider how to limit their exposure to global supply chains. The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs last month introduced Britain’s first-ever food security index, finding food supplies were “broadly stable” but wet weather had “potentially significant impacts” on domestic production of some crops. Around 60% of the food Britons eat is grown domestically, a number the government is desperately trying to boost.
Britain’s ruling Conservative party, which is showing dismal performance ahead of July’s general election, has tried to avoid more bad news and build support among voters – including those in farming communities. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched a £50 million ($64 million) support program for farmers in April, but for many of them the aid will not help with this year’s harvests.
Flooded farms
Farmer Henry Ward was unable to start work on his farm in Lincoln, England, until June 4, after the fields were devastated by floods that struck twice in six months.
Ward’s Short Ferry Farm typically supplies wheat for breadmaker Warburtons and spring barley for brewers Coors and Budweiser. Ward missed planting in March because the fields did not dry in time. “We will lose out on over £100,000 of income from crops we should be harvesting,” he says from the grain warehouse, which is slowly running out of supplies.
On Short Ferry Farm’s 200 hectares, only one survived the floodwaters: a green patch in a field with a cracked surface that looks as if it has experienced drought. Ironically, however, the thick crust was created by water pressure. It smells rotten and Ward compares its appearance to a crème brûlée. Underneath is a sticky, oxygen-poor mess that will struggle to grow crops without cultivation.
It’s not just grains that are affected by unusual weather. British strawberries appeared in supermarkets two weeks later than normal due to the gloomy and cool weather. Scotch broccoli could also appear later than expected.
The livestock also has to contend with the weather. About 15% of Ward’s lambs were stillborn after Short Ferry Farm had to evacuate heavily pregnant ewes.
This year’s heavy rainfall is the latest climate change for British farming. In 2022, Britain experienced its worst drought in almost fifty years. Reservoirs dried up, while crops shriveled.
Helen Hooker, research scientist at the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, says Britain will be particularly hard hit by these trends. “Our winters will probably get wetter,” she says. “And in the summer we will see more of these very heavy showers.”
Problems worsened
Britain will have imported 60% more wheat this season than the year before to support supplies, according to forecasts by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
Yet it is a challenge to find a supplier in Europe who is not affected by extreme conditions. Soggy fields limit crop planting in France. Unusual cold spells and droughts have affected grain growth in the Black Sea. Germany flooded earlier this month.
The country may have to look further afield to Canada for quality wheat, says Tom Molnar, the CEO of London-based bakery Gail’s, which has sourced mainly from British producers for the past six years. Wheat prices in Britain have continued to rise even as the cost of crops elsewhere has fallen from this year’s peak.
Molnar says companies that produce bread on a large scale could be hit harder by rising grain costs than higher-end stores like Gail’s.
Other risks facing the UK supply chain could lie in the hands of private companies that control the country’s creaking water infrastructure. Storm overflows designed to help deal with intense rainy periods are old and are increasingly being overrun by water utilities with sewers, resulting in public health warnings against swimming in streams and even boiling water before using it in a particular area.
“The sewage companies are getting away with murder,” says Ben Cooper, a farmer in Wiltshire who saw human waste flowing into his front garden. Cooper also planted the crops later than normal, and while rushing to get to work, a tractor got stuck in a muddy field.
The flooding at Short Ferry Farm was exacerbated by clogged natural waterways, which required dredging of debris from the riverbed. Although the Environment Agency paid £3 million to restore the riverbank on the site’s boundary following a flood in 2019, it was sadly unable to prevent the latest round of destruction.
The future of food
Henry Ward expects it will take up to four years for the land on his farm to recover enough to produce the yields they had before the flood. The only hectare of wheat, underdeveloped and filled with weeds because they could not be treated with herbicides, will be removed and replaced with a mixture of kale, sunflower and triticale for winter bird food. Ward says he won’t be able to start producing food until March 2025.
British arable farmers have launched a campaign to highlight the plight of this year’s harvest, calling on the next government to introduce new policies aimed at domestic production and environmental protection. Some farming communities, meanwhile, are considering their own climate hacks to deal with extreme weather.
Having survived two major floods since he took over the land in 2019, Ward and his neighbors have now proposed to the Environment Agency and ministers that they use their land to help manage Lincoln’s water system, rather than having to deal with the unpredictable elements every year. to fight.
“We could sacrifice this land to store floodwaters and turn it into a nature reserve,” Ward said. “By sacrificing, I don’t know, 500 hectares here, we can hopefully protect a lot of people’s homes and maybe protect thousands of hectares further downstream to produce food.”
These water reserves could prove useful the next time drought strikes – but less farmland could ultimately hurt Britain’s efforts to boost domestic food supplies. It’s all part of the messy future Britain faces as it tries to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.
“It’s going to break my heart,” Ward says as he watches the farmer prepare the land for the bird feed. “That [land] should grow food. I just feel like we’re kind of admitting defeat.”
–With help from Olivia Rudgard.
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