Scotland will feel entitled to smell blood when they start the tournament against a German side under immense pressure to deliver results. The beginning of Julian Nagelsmann’s term was overshadowed by friendly defeats against Turkey and Austria; he is leading a team in transition and Scotland, a well-oiled machine under Steve Clarke, will feel capable of striking an early blow. It is not a stretch to suggest that Hungary, who have qualified impressively, will rate their chances of competing for top spot. They drew against Germany in Munich at Euro 2020 and just 18 months have passed since they beat England at Molineux in the Nations League. Switzerland completes the quartet, but will need to build some momentum. After passing the first stage of the qualifiers, Murat Yakin’s side drew against Belarus, Israel and Kosovo before losing to Romania. However, their tournament expertise means they cannot be left out.
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Albanian manager Sylvinho, who made his name as a player at Arsenal, spoke before the draw about “creating dreams”. Progress in one of the toughest groups they could have imagined seems like fantasy, although their performances in beating the Czech Republic and Poland in the qualifiers deserve attention. Italy, stranded in pot four and a shadow of the team that triumphed at Wembley two and a half years ago, would certainly have preferred to avoid Spain and Croatia, although the latter will have to squeeze one last display of majesty out of a 38-team. the birthday boy Luka Modric if they want to go far. On paper, Spain should have too much for all three opponents, although they were dealt a major blow last month when Barcelona midfielder Gavi suffered a serious knee injury. He will almost certainly miss the tournament and Luis de la Fuente, the veteran coach who emerged from the shadows last year, must find a viable option.
GROUP C – England, Denmark, Slovenia, Serbia
Gareth Southgate may have frowned inwardly when Denmark were drawn first to England; Slovenia and Serbia offer less stressful tests on paper, although both are capable of carrying a sting. Serbia, packed with attacking talent but traditionally less than the sum of their parts, will at least aim for second place in their first European Championship. Their manager, Dragan Stojkovic, must hope his talismanic striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has not dulled since swapping the Premier League for a club career in Saudi Arabia. Denmark will look to seize the opportunity for revenge against England after feeling deprived at Wembley in the Euro 2020 semi-final, but the group’s form could depend on their encounters with a functional Slovenia. The teams faced off in qualifying, with Kasper Hjulmand’s team reaching top spot in Group H thanks to a 2-1 win over Copenhagen. If England stutter against Serbia or Denmark and need points, they might not be miserable when they play Slovenia on the final day.
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GROUP D – France, Austria, Netherlands, Playoff winner A (possibly Wales)
France is expected to sail towards the final stages, but complications could arise in one of the tougher groups. They were run close to an improving Netherlands during qualifying in Amsterdam in October and a battle for first place could yet become a reality if Ronald Koeman can harness the best of a bright new generation. No one should rule out Austria, who look formidable under Ralf Rangnick, from a surprise: they defeated Germany convincingly in Vienna last month and went hand-in-hand with Belgium in qualifying. Should Wales make the play-offs, which is far from unlikely, they will face a tough task to regain some face after last year’s World Cup flop. France will hope to have done the heavy lifting by the time they face Rob Page, or whoever arrives in their place, in Dortmund on June 25.
GROUP E – Belgium, Slovakia, Romania, Playoff winner B
The level of interest in an outwardly disappointing set may depend on whether Ukraine – which must surpass Israel, Iceland and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the play-offs – qualifies and provides a good news story. Serhiy Rebrov’s team could even win a group that Belgium, still managing an intergenerational transition, is not guaranteed to tear apart. There will be a lot of eyes on Domenico Tedesco’s Diables Rouges, who qualified without fuss and hoped to shake off the disappointment of an early World Cup elimination. Resurgent Romania, who comfortably showed rare consistency at the top of Group I, are in good form under Edward Iordanescu and could pull off a surprise, although a lack of top-level experience could be detrimental. Slovakia, who handed Portugal two close games in the qualifiers, will hope a core of Milan Skriniar, Stanislav Lobotka and Ondrej Duda keeps them in the mix.
GROUP F – Portugal, Turkey, Czech Republic, Play-off winner C
Roberto Martínez and Portugal, who qualified with a perfect 10 wins out of 10, should be able to get through without alarm. Should Greece join them via the play-offs, the group would bring back memories of Euro 2004, when both Portugal – twice, including the final – and the Czech Republic were shocked by Otto Rehhagel’s team. This time, perhaps the biggest threat comes from Turkey, who fooled everyone who tipped them as dark horses in 2021, but could just about justify their billing this time under Vincenzo Montella’s shrewd management. Away wins in Germany and Croatia in the past two months offer tantalizing promise. The Czech Republic, led by Tomas Soucek but with little other stardust, suffered from heavy weather at times during qualifying and could be forced to drop out for third place.