AND NOW FOR PESSIMISM
It is one of life’s many disappointments: your team will almost certainly not win the European Championship. Since its first appearance in 1960, only eleven teams have won the tournament, and three of them – the Soviet Union, West Germany and Czechoslovakia – no longer exist, having entered the knockout stages of geopolitics in the meantime .
There are 24 teams at Euro 2024, so if you look at the historical figures, the odds are terrible no matter who you back. This is why none of the 24 can win the European Championship – with a guarantee of 23 correct predictions with a success rate of 95.8%, which is statistically very impressive.
Germany Conventional wisdom suggests they are back on track under Julian Nagelsmann, but it’s all a bit premature. They have recorded three wins in their last five under the former Bayern coach, including victories against France and the Netherlands, but still look strangely disjointed, recording a 2-1 win against Greece in their final warm-up. It is not surprising that the German success has a distinctly Bavarian flavour: six Bayern players started in the 2014 World Cup final, also when Die Mannschaft won the Euro 96. Bayern have had a disappointing season, while Bayer Leverkusen, champions of the Bundesliga, have only three players in their squad. The pressure from home will only exacerbate the cracks in the foundations of a deceptively fragile team.
Scotland Germany may not be at their best, but few expect them to make a mistake in the tournament opener. Unless Steve Clarke can engineer a massive upset, Scotland’s dismal run will stretch to one win in 10. That win came against Gibraltar, ranked 203rd in the world, and was about as enjoyable as a root canal. The chances of winning a first major tournament are not great.
Hungary There is a lot to like about this Hungarian side. These Euro 2020 surviving sluggers have united around the creative talents of Dominik Szoboszlai and are playing far more ambitious football under Marco Rossi than they ever did. They were unbeaten in qualifying and, barring an unexpected hiccup in their friendly against Ireland earlier this month, their recent record is impressive. But they’re not going to win the euro, are they? Be serious.
Switzerland If Granit No, wrong, Switzerland will not win the European Championship.
Spain They have Rodri in midfield, which gives them a statistically negligible chance of losing a match in normal time or extra time. Sadly, they exited Euro 2020 and the last two World Cups on penalties and will do the same again. Probably in the semi-finals.
Croatia In this world, nothing can be considered certain except death, taxes and Luka Modric pulling the strings for Croatia. At 38, with another Big Cup title to his name, he is still Zlatko Dalic’s midfield general. After using his alchemical magic to secure a spot in the 2018 World Cup final, the 2022 semi-finals and last year’s UEFA Nations League final, even he hasn’t managed to top the team’s overachievement to be converted into silverware. Croatia is on a journey that never quite reaches its intended destination.
Italy There is only so long Italy can feed itself on the pain of failed World Cup qualifying campaigns. Spain are the only team to have won the European Championship twice, in 2008 and 2012, and that was at the absolute height of their tiki-taka dominance, not with a team addicted to chaos.
Albania Sylvinho has done a good job as head coach. But they are also in a group with Italy, Croatia and Spain.
England Is this the tournament where Gareth Southgate is finally knocked off his pedestal? Is the tyranny of the alpha-centrist father finally over? The grim mood following the warm-up defeat to Iceland at Wembley suggests we could be nearing the end of an era. There is only one fitting finale: a sickening semi-final defeat that returns things to where it all began.
Denmark Each team will achieve a maximum of one huge victory at the European Championship. Denmark used theirs in 1992.
Serbia They have far too many mavericks – Dusan Vlahovic, Dusan Tadic, Aleksandar Mitrovic, the list goes on – to do business at a major tournament. Should provide some decent entertainment.
Slovenia One of the least likely teams to emerge victorious in Germany, having never escaped the group stages of a major tournament. Sadly, they also appear to be missing out on the golden fax machine prize for transfer speculation following Benjamin Sesko’s decision to extend his contract with RB Leipzig.
France A stacked squad, loads of winning experience, Kylian Mbappé: everything is in France’s favour. But in the best traditions of le foot françaisthey are late for a tournament where they implode spectacularly, going out in the group stage in a mushroom cloud of bitterness.
Austria It was always going to be difficult for Austria to progress beyond a group with France, the Netherlands and Poland, but it has become much more difficult now that David Alaba, Alex Schlager and Xaver Schlager have been ruled out through injury. As for winning the tournament, it’s a no.
The Netherlands Frenkie de Jong is sidelined, their form is mediocre and they have lost all their recent games against their big rivals. A repeat of Euro 88 still seems far away.
Poland The Robert Lewandowski Show. But not the good one, because he is talented and may not play. Settle in and enjoy every excruciating second of the 270-minute running time.
Belgium The Red Devils are undefeated since their group stage exit in Qatar and have flourished under the leadership of Domenico Tedesco. They could even go to the extreme this time. Except, think of all the other times Belgium could have gone above and beyond. Being really good is not enough.
Romania Belgium are the clear favorites to come top, but otherwise Group E is one for the underdogs. However, Slovakia and Ukraine appear to have better opportunities to make progress. Excuse me, Romania.
Slovakia Feasible second place in Group E, before going straight to the round of 16.
Ukraine Also a feasible second place in Group E and, looking at the bigger picture, they will not be short of goodwill in Germany. However, as with Euro 2020, they are likely to be in trouble when they meet the main contenders.
Portugal The stage is set for a tournament-long psychodrama centering on 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo. Among the subplots: defeat in the quarterfinals.
Turkey Remember when everyone had Turkey as their dark horse at Euro 2020? That went well.
Georgia The lowest ranked team in the competition has qualified through the Nations League play-offs. Georgia’s first appearance at a major tournament is quite a story. We all know how it ends.
Czech Republic The Czechs arrive in Germany after five straight wins, making them one of the best teams. It should be noted that these victories were against North Macedonia, Malta, Armenia, Norway and Moldova. They are well placed to make the knockouts, but not to dig deep.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There can be no question of: ‘I’m Sylvinho, won the treble in ’09, worked for [Pep] Guardiola, now I know everything.’ What I did before is important to me as a background and I can use it, but I can’t come here and talk to the players on a different level. You don’t just walk into the locker room and say, ‘[Big Cup]’” – Albania boss Sylvinho gets his highly entertaining chat with Nick Ames.
FOOTBALL DAILY LETTERS
For all those fans who hate Manchester United, or as we colloquially call them ‘football fans’, United winning the FA Cup this season will ultimately be the funniest thing ever for next season, won’t it?’ – Noble Francis.
Of course, having four Brentford players in their squad must mean something for Denmark (Tuesday’s Football Daily). No team with four Brentford players in their squad has ever lost in a major international tournament” – Russell Wallman.
With Euro 2024 just around the corner, I checked on Google to see which television network has coverage here in the US, US. The answer was Fox Sports, whose schedule page included a link to a video with the headline: “Could USMNT win the European Championship if they played it this summer?” I certainly didn’t click the link, but has Betteridge’s Law of Headlines ever been more applicable?’ – Chad Thomas.
Send letters to the.boss@theguardian.com. The winner of today’s newsletter is… Chad Thomas, who wins a copy of Euro 88: The Football Purists’ European Championship, from Pitch Publishing. Visit their bookstore here. You can view the general terms and conditions for our competitions here.
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