Space has evolved tremendously over the past 25 years, evolving from government-driven exploration missions to a dynamic, more commercially driven field.
In 1999, there were 79 launch attempts into Earth orbit, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) tests. Many of the missions were carried out by the venerable spaceshipDelta and Soyuz rockets, with the US and Russia leading the way. The International Space Station (ISS) was still in the early stages of construction, with NASA leading several countries in building the largest international cooperative project ever.
The scene has changed dramatically. Technological advances, transformative and autonomous software, and emerging blocs of international cooperation have created a new and vibrant, yet more congested and even contested, arena in low earth orbit (LEO) and beyond.
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The first Falcon 9 The launch took place in 2010, with the first successful landing of the first stage in late 2015. Reusable SpaceX Falcon rockets take off, land and are prepared for reuse. There were 98 Falcon launches in 2023 alone, out of a total of 223 launches tried and dominated the global launch market.
Related: 8 Ways SpaceX Has Transformed Space Travel
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and space travel tracker at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center, points to a major development in space travel recently: software.
Developments in software have enabled tremendous advances, such as the advanced algorithms for landing Falcon rockets on drone ships and landing pads, as well as NASA’s autonomous navigation Curiosity And Perseverance rovers on Mars.
The new software also enables detailed mission simulations, astronaut training, improved communications with distant spacecraft, highly accurate simulations of space environments, and human-machine interaction for safer, more intuitive operations.
Back to the launch arena: Europe, China, Russia, Iran, Israel, Japan, India and North and South Korea have all contributed to making 2023 the most active year for launches worldwide so far. Others, including Britain, Germany and Spain, are aiming to conduct commercial orbital flights rockets soon.
Interestingly, China came in second on this list. China has transformed into a leading space nation over the past decade, with a national record of 67 launches last year. It has sent landers and sample return missions to the moonput a rover on Mars and built the Tiangong Space Stationwhich will provide a new orbital outpost for astronauts. The new station will likely attract new partners, especially as the ISS heads toward decommissioning in 2030 or thereabouts.
China also wants to build mega-constellations like SpaceX’s Sterlink in LEO for communications and more — meaning that competition for orbital aircraft and radio frequency use is likely on the horizon. Such plans are indicative of a complex space environment.
Victoria Samson, executive director of space security and stability for the nonprofit Secure World Foundation, notes that LEO has indeed already changed.
“Space now operates in a much more complex environment than it did 25 years ago, in terms of an increasing number of actors, the emergence of very large constellations, and three major debris-generating incidents.” These were the 2009 Iridium-Cosmos satellite collision, the 2007 China anti-satellite (ASAT) test, and Russia’s ASAT Test of 2021.
The presence of growing large constellations – not to mention space debris — also requires careful calculations for the timing and routing of the launches.
Related: The Kessler Syndrome and the Space Debris Problem
On a positive note, the past 25 years have shown that countries can work together.
“I think ISS has proven that the international community can work together on scientific projects in space and that people can be in space for (relatively) long periods of time,” Samson said. “Now it’s time to apply the lessons we’ve learned there to the next 25 years in space.”
“Plus, we now have (some) reusable launch vehicles, which is a game-changer,” she added. A range of companies in the US, China and beyond are trying to follow the path laid out by SpaceX.
25 Years in Review: In 1999, NASA’s Mars Polar Lander departed for the red planetThat mission ended with a hard landingBut now there are teams on Earth that are timing their schedules to Mars Day, flying huge, nuclear-powered rovers. There is also renewed interest in the moon, with a fleet of missions planned, mostly under the auspices of the NASA-led Artemis Programwhile the China-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) is also taking shape.
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While the Mars Polar Lander is on a now retired Delta II rocket, one of the most important missions of recent years, Europa Clipperis about to be launched on a commercial basis Falcon Heavy rocket later this year. Other important developments include the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) provides new and deeper insights into the universe than Hubbleand the proliferation of cubesats and smallsats – miniature satellites that are nevertheless highly capable and have, to some extent, democratized access to space.
One of the most exciting, attention-grabbing and illustrative recent developments in space exploration, demonstrating not only progress but also ambition and vision, is SpaceshipSpaceX’s latest attempt to revolutionize space travel through full reusability, low cost, and high payload capacity. Thirty-three powerful, methane-burning Raptor engines power Starship’s Super Heavy first-stage booster, which propels the upper stage toward orbit. The stainless steel rocket is the largest and most powerful launch vehicle ever flown, and its ongoing test flights are drawing worldwide attention.
Nearly a quarter of the way into the new century, the space industry is at a point where nations are forming coalitions to explore and even maintain human habitats on the moon. Commercial companies are determined to Mars and countless companies looking to transform the space with innovative ideas.