If there has been a common theme to this long and eventful rugby season, it is that the cream eventually rises to the top. Leinster and Toulouse are not in the Investec Champions Cup final this weekend by accident and the team roster is sprinkled with more than enough quality to match the rising backdrop of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The FA Cup final at Wembley is far from the only big show in town.
As the two sides went through their pre-match moves on the most pristine surface imaginable – no stray dandelions or daisies here – it was hard to remember a potentially shinier club rugby final. The showdown between the respective powerhouses of Ireland and France is expected to attract the biggest attendance for this match in a decade and the tingle of collective anticipation has rarely been stronger.
However, there is a pressing question hanging in the clear air of north London. Will this be third time lucky for Leinster after two agonizing final defeats to French opposition in the past two seasons, or will Toulouse simply prove to be too good? Considering the supposedly high-performing Irish province has only prevailed in this tournament once since 2012, another defeat would be a major psychological blow.
And while on paper they have a good recent record against these opponents, there is no home advantage this time around, nor the same unwavering sense of certainty. Toulouse are in good form and ready for the challenge of becoming the first club in European history to claim this title six times. They have the peerless Antoine Dupont, the weather is good and at their best their powerful forwards and sharp backs can leave spectacular vapor trails.
On their way to the final they have amassed 133 points in the knockout stages alone against Racing 92, Exeter and Harlequins and, as their towering French international lock Emmanuel Meafou made clear this week, the mood within the camp has changed accordingly. “We like our chances this time,” said Meafou, dismissing the string of semi-final defeats to Leinster in Dublin over the past two seasons. “The boys are looking forward to it.”
It is therefore up to Leinster’s defence, orchestrated by South Africa’s World Cup-winning coach Jacques Nienaber, to hold their own against the red and black tide. The idea of hiring the high-performing Springbok guru was to help them win big, intense games like this and the acid test of his revamped blitz defense system is at hand.
Because if you offer these opponents a glimmer of attacking space in midfield, big problems arise. No team in the Northern Hemisphere offloads with the same natural carelessness as Toulouse, regardless of the number on their jerseys, and their bench strength was ultimately too much for Chiefs and Quins.
That goes a long way to explaining Leinster’s deliberate team selection. A 6-2 forward-dominated bench, including seasoned Ireland internationals James Ryan and Josh van der Flier, appears designed to ensure the bravest combination is on the pitch for the final twenty minutes while, if the recent finals are any guide are, the match will be decisively shaped.
Nienaber led South Africa’s run of three consecutive one-point victories to win the World Cup last autumn and has reminded Leinster’s players of the importance of staying steadfast when the momentum of the game goes against them.
Leinster’s director of rugby, Leo Cullen, has also pored over the last two painful finals against La Rochelle long enough to know what his side cannot afford. Last year in a classic encounter in Dublin, Leinster made a fantastic start, being reeled in from 17-0 down before being defeated 27-26 by Ronan O’Gara’s streetwise forwards. In the biggest games, there have been cases of bigger, stronger packs surviving them.
It has left Cullen with a tricky balancing act: whether to use the past as motivation or absorb its lessons and move on. “I’m not sure it has that much relevance,” he said, only because his captain, Caelan Doris, who was sitting next to him, acknowledged that the “pain” of the past two years was a big part of the team’s emotional mix . “You don’t want to experience that again,” said Doris, such a key figure for both the province and the country. “We talked about it at the beginning of this week; about remembering that post-game feeling of the past two years and how you would give anything to have this opportunity again.”
Several members of the Toulouse team are also remembering their quarter-final defeat at their own World Cup, thanks to Nienaber and friends. Their coach, Ugo Mola, suggests there is a sense of “good karma” among his players, but they have left little to chance by bringing in French international referee Mathieu Raynal to help with preparations. “If we are not disciplined, it will be very difficult,” Dupont said.
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However, for both sides, the relatively narrow field and shallow areas in the goal will require a small adjustment. If the playing surface is also on the firm side, long, aimless steps are more likely to lead to dead ends. It could also mean less space out wide, putting more pressure on both sets of half-backs to choose the right options.
It will be an occasion anyway, not least for young Joshua Brennan, son of former Ireland international Trevor Brennan, who owns a bar in Toulouse. Scotland’s Blair Kinghorn has once again been chosen over Thomas Ramos at full-back, although the latter, one of Europe’s deadliest kickers, could play an important role later.
Potentially career-defining days also loom for Jason Jenkins and Will Connors, who have opted to start ahead of Ryan and Van der Flier with the clear intention of not giving Toulouse time to settle down.
One look at Dupont’s steely pre-match expression underlined how difficult it will be for Leinster to deny the world’s leading player. Spurs fans already know what a top flight number 9 looks like and there’s a good chance Toulouse’s talisman will once again dash Leinster dreams.