Manchester United fans travel to Wembley with hope rather than expectation and may fear being embarrassed by Manchester City in the FA Cup final.
Erik ten Hag was characteristically optimistic after last year’s final, praising United for keeping the match close after Ilkay Gundogan’s goal 12 seconds into the match.
City never looked in serious danger, but faced some late waves of United pressure and were unable to fully expose the gulf in quality between the sides.
That should offer Ten Hag some encouragement, just like the fact that Manchester City had to sprint to the final day of the Premier League season to beat Arsenal (unlike last season).
These are some of the tactical tricks that could give United a chance on Saturday.
Mimic Tottenham’s midfield
If United could sign for more possession, more completed passes, more shots and more shots on target than City and 1.33 expected goals, they would snatch the pen from your hand.
One team that did just that against City in the final weeks of the season was Tottenham Hotspur, who were perhaps unlucky not to at least come away with a draw against the champions.
Ange Postecoglou pulled off a surprise that evening by switching from his usual 4-3-3 to 2-3-5 and using a box in midfield. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur played deeper with James Maddison and Pape Matar Sarr higher up. There was no centre-forward present, with Son Heung-min high and wide on the left and Brennan Johnson also on the right flank (see heatmap below). It’s easy to imagine Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho offering the same dynamic.
The result was Spurs’ two pacey forwards occupying Man City’s back four, creating numerical advantages elsewhere in moving the ball through the third. Spurs managed to deprive City of possession and deprive Guardiola’s side of their usual rhythm.
As explored in more depth here on these pages, City may also be more open in transition this season as their full-backs play in wider, more orthodox roles. City don’t completely flood the center of the pitch like they once did, putting a lot of pressure on Rodri. The space is either side of City’s midfielder, although Guardiola has stabilized his team by introducing Mateo Kovacic.
In United’s final league match of the season, Ten Hag opted for a similar system to Postecoglou’s during a possible dress rehearsal for the FA Cup. Sofyan Ambrabat, Kobbie Mainoo, Scott McTominay and Bruno Fernandes all played centrally with Amad Diallo and Garnacho wide as nominal forwards (see heatmap above). The question is whether United’s players have the confidence and technical quality to move the ball as well as Spurs.
Cut the passing lanes to Rodri
Phil Foden may have won the individual awards of the season, but no City player is as influential as Rodri. City’s only three defeats in the Premier League this season came when the Spaniard was absent.
Rodri had more touches than any player in the league, played more passes into the final third and progressive passes than any player and finished the season with eight goals and nine assists. All this while shielding his centre-backs and eliminating counter-attacks fair or foul.
Rodri has completed fewer than 70 passes just three times in his 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. Two of those three games were chaotic: 3-3 and 4-4 draws against Spurs and Chelsea. If Rodri’s influence can be limited, City will find it harder to enjoy their usual control.
The big decision for Ten Hag is whether a player should mark Rodri or use a more zonal or situational approach. United’s man marking has often been pulled apart under Ten Hag, and that trick threatens to create space for a defender like John Stones to step out with the ball.
A wiser strategy might be to ask McTominay or Fernandes, depending on which flank City are building, to try to keep themselves between Rodri and the player on the ball. This is something coaches call keeping a player in your shadow. A sign of success will be if Rodri starts dropping deep, between the centre-backs, looking for the ball.
Note the cuts
All season United have been vulnerable to passes being pulled back from the byline to the edge of the penalty area.
An ineffective offside line has asked defenders to run back to their own goal, and on several occasions they have been able to apply the breaks in time.
Ten Hag’s man-marking in midfield was also a problem, with midfielders following runners into United’s defensive line rather than defending the zone in front of the centre-backs. Michael Carrick was once a master at reading and intercepting pull-backs in a United shirt.
With Lisandro Martínez starting the final game of the season and Raphaël Varane coming on as a substitute, there is at least the prospect of United starting their first-choice centre-back role. They need to back themselves to deal with Erling Haaland and ensure their midfielders guard the space in front of them.
City have repeatedly scored goals from cuts and low crosses, with Foden and Rodri scoring the goals from midfield this season. The pair will deliberately lurk on the edge of United’s box.
City’s first goal at Spurs was a textbook example of the blind underlaps their attacking midfielders make to reach the byline. In this case it was Kevin De Bruyne. These moves have been a feature since Guardiola’s arrival.
To continue or not to last long?
There was a change in United’s strategy at half-time in this season’s Manchester derby at the Etihad. Andre Onana started to play short from goal kicks as Ten Hag tried to prevent City from building an attacking wave. It didn’t have the desired effect.
In the first 45 minutes of that match, United threatened when they were more direct. Rashford’s opening goal came from Onana who picked out Fernandes with a long ball forward.
This is a dilemma that all teams will face against City. They are such a compelling force that it can seem sensible to clip the ball over them and bypass the midfield. City also offer plenty of space behind the defenders, so it’s tempting to try and go long.
However, this can lead to the ball coming straight back, with Rodri sucking up second balls and starting City attacks.
United will have to play short and long at different stages of the game, but must ensure they don’t fall through the cracks in the same stage of play. If Onana kicks long when his defenders have split to receive the ball, United will be stretched from front to back when the ball is lost.