After a season in which Manchester United’s tactical system was constantly under discussion, Erik ten Hag does not have the luxury of choosing the last match, which could well be his last. The Dutch coach must prepare for underdog football in the FA Cup final against Manchester City on Saturday. This is not something for ideology. Almost everyone has to make compromises when facing Pep Guardiola, but there is more to it than that.
Perhaps the biggest uncertainty about the game is how much of an underdog United are. It’s hard to think of a final between two big clubs where such an extreme divide has been felt. The gap is so wide that the dynamics of this match are far more similar to the 2014 Arsenal-Hull City final than even last year’s meeting between the same two Manchester clubs.
It’s a feeling only accentuated by the fact that they both immediately returned to the final, with the same back-to-back pairing happening for only the second time in history, but the gap has widened since then. City have only strengthened their grip on the English game as they also aim for the country’s first-ever double-double. That was a feat that even Sir Alex Ferguson could not achieve. The closest he came was in doubles in 1994 and 1996, albeit with two runners-up in between. Guardiola can go much further by adding the FA Cup to this season’s Premier League, on top of last season’s treble.
It is already unprecedented dominance, which has raised bigger questions for the English game.
On the other hand, Ten Hag is hardly holding on to his job. A general feeling is that the only reason nothing has happened yet is that United still have this cup final and the manager market is quite thin. The latter is something that changed dramatically this week, with the availability of both Mauricio Pochettino and Thomas Tuchel. The United hierarchy still have a preference for Gareth Southgate, and there is now strong interest in Kieran McKenna, but such names will spark a new debate.
We’re almost past the point where an FA Cup win – admittedly making it two trophies in two seasons – would change that conversation. Ten Hag’s Premier League and Champions League campaigns were too chaotic. In contrast, there’s almost a feeling that this finale could make things worse.
There is some discussion in the game about how City could easily subject their historic rivals to the same defeat with which they tortured Watford in 2019. That was a 6-0, and that’s the kind of gap we’re talking about. If it sounds bizarre, all you have to do is look at the odds for this match. It is truly remarkable that United have gone 5-1. That is remarkable for a derby match in a final between two clubs like this.
The painful truth for United is that, when City are in the mood, they really can subject Ten Hag’s side to absolute humiliation. Maybe we haven’t seen the bottom yet.
It’s that simple. The gap between the teams is too big. Even if the game were to proceed relatively normally, with both sides playing at their overall level, it would only be a comfortable victory for the Abu Dhabi project.
That’s almost as bad as the humiliation itself, in that it would be considered routine. This is what INEOS is struggling with when assessing every aspect of United at the moment. While the new hierarchy is much more blunt towards those within the club, the coded language from figures like Sir Dave Brailsford to those outside Old Trafford is that there are “opportunities”. They have seen many areas where there is “significant margin for improvement”.
Perhaps the biggest is the space in defense, as United have allowed so many shots to their opponents this season. That is why such results as the 4-0 at Crystal Palace eventually became inevitable. What could Kevin De Bruyne or Phil Foden do there?
And yet there is a strange kind of hope for United here too.
Although big clubs dominate the modern FA Cup, its knockout nature means it is more subject to wild luck… to ‘magic’, even if that is in the sense of unlikely things happening.
United’s run to the final has already shown much of this. The quarter-final against Liverpool was structured in the same way as this match, as if Jurgen Klopp’s team were just going to give them a beating. In fact, there’s a fair argument that Liverpool did just that in the overall game, given the way they cut United open. But as can happen with one-off knockouts, that turned out not to be the case on the field. Liverpool missed too many chances. United got theirs, with the dramatic nature of Antony’s late equalizer and Amad Diallo’s extra-time stoppage winner only furthering the emotional dynamics of this series. It was the kind of game that people cited as reasons why there were names on the cup before City won most of them.
However, there is still a certain sense of destiny. That was certainly accompanied by the sense of farce of that semi-final against Coventry City, albeit with the almost symbolic appearance of a United FA Cup hero in Mark Robins. It was he who famously saved Sir Alex Ferguson’s trophy win in 1990 and propelled that entire era. It was he that Ten Hag’s United almost had to fall past to get back to Wembley.
Then there is the run-up to this final. Has there ever been an individual story that seemed as ready for a narrative twist as Marcus Rashford’s? It was only Tuesday that he was left out of an English tournament squad for the first time in his career due to a poor season.
And yet he still has some potential. He now has even greater motivation. Ten Hag can do something with it. Around United there is already talk about Eric Cantona in 1996, or Norman Whiteside in 1985.
The city doesn’t actually have to worry about that. They can only point to the performances of recent weeks, Foden’s form.
That’s why Harry Maguire’s absence is important as he would be suited to this type of approach. United must be deep. They would need Casemiro to revive his own form in front of the backline, if only for one night. They would then try to release Alejandro Garnacho and Rashford.
It says a lot that this is being looked at: a bit of magic, counter-attacking football, the luck of the cup. However, it’s the finale and a few people will want the last word.