The nationwide rail strikes have entered their third year, with a series of ‘rolling’ strikes planned to disrupt millions of passengers’ journeys across England in late January and early February.
Train drivers from Aslef will stop their work region by region for a week between Tuesday, January 30 and Monday, February 5. Thousands of trains are likely to be canceled every day.
The effect will be exacerbated by a nine-day ban on overtime, running from January 29 to February 6.
The strikes are intended to cause maximum disruption over an extended period of time, with operators losing just one day’s wages each. It reflects the ongoing industrial action in early December 2023. The schedule is:
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Monday January 29: overtime ban comes into effect.
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Tuesday 30 January: Strikes on South Western Railway, Southeastern, Southern, Gatwick Express, Great Northern and Thameslink.
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Wednesday 31 January: strikes on Northern and TransPennine Express.
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Thursday, February 1: no strike but overtime ban remains in place.
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Friday 2 February: Strikes on Greater Anglia, C2C and LNER.
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Saturday 3 February: strikes on West Midlands Trains, Avanti West Coast and East Midlands Railway.
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Sunday February 4: no strike but overtime ban remains in place.
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Monday 5 February: Strikes at Great Western, CrossCountry and Chiltern.
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Tuesday, February 6: no strike, but overtime ban remains in effect for one last day.
In terms of the number of passengers affected, Monday January 29 will be the most disruptive. It is aimed at commuters in south-east England, the majority of whom use the affected train operators.
Intercity travelers will be hardest hit on Friday 2 and Saturday 3 February, when main operators on the East and West Coast mainlines, as well as the Midland mainline, will be affected.
Sunday, February 4, will also likely be seriously disrupted by the ban on rest day work.
Aslef says no train operator “employs enough drivers to provide the service they promise to passengers and companies without asking drivers to work their days off.”
ScotRail, Transport for Wales, Transport for London (including the Elizabeth Line), Merseyrail and “open access” operators such as Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo are not involved.
The effects could be reduced if Transport Secretary Mark Harper uses new legislation to impose ‘minimum service levels’ (MSLs).
The Department for Transport (DfT) says: “The minimum service level is to provide the train services required to operate the equivalent of 40 per cent of the timetable during the strike period.”
But the Transport Select Committee has warned of potential risks.
The committee’s Conservative chairman, Iain Stewart, said last month: “The government has signaled its intention to implement MSLs as quickly as possible.
“There is a risk that MSLs worsen employee-employer relationships and, as a result, MSLs could ultimately make services less reliable.”
The train drivers’ union has been fighting with fourteen train operators since the summer of 2022, including all major commuter and intercity companies.
Aslef is demanding a non-binding wage increase, followed by negotiations at local level to modernize working practices – which will come at an additional cost to employers.
The train operators, represented by the Rail Delivery Group (RDG), say even a modest pay increase is dependent on far-reaching reforms.
Any deal will be signed off by the DfT and taxpayers will foot the bill. Ticket revenues are about a fifth lower than before the corona crisis. The government grant to keep the railway running is currently £17,600 per minute – £5,300 more than before the pandemic, the government said.
The union says it has not had any discussions with Mr Harper since 2022; with Huw Merriman, the Minister of Railways, since January 2023; and with employers since April 2023.
Aslef general secretary Mick Whelan said: “We have given the Government every opportunity to come to the table, but it has now been a year since we have had any contact with the Department for Transport. It is clear that they do not want to resolve this dispute.
“Many of our members have now not received a single penny more in wages in half a decade in which inflation soared and with it the cost of living.
“Train drivers didn’t even ask for a pay rise during the Covid-19 pandemic, all the while working as key workers and risking their lives to keep NHS and other workers traveling.
“The government has now tried its old trick of changing the rules if they can’t win, and introduced minimum service level legislation. But this new law, as we told officials during the consultation period, will not ease industrial conflict. It will probably only make things worse.
‘There’s no excuse. The government and train operators must come to the table with a realistic offer so that we can end this dispute and work together to secure the future of our railways.”
A spokesperson for the Rail Delivery Group said: “No one wins when strikes impact lives and livelihoods, and they are particularly difficult to justify at a time when taxpayers continue to contribute an extra £54 million a week to keep services running post-Covid.
“Despite the huge financial challenge facing the railways, drivers have received an offer that would take basic pay to almost £65,000 for a four-day week with no overtime – that is well above the national average and significantly more than many of our passengers who have no way of getting home to work are paid.
“Rather than staging more damaging industrial action, we call on Aslef’s leadership to work with us to resolve this dispute and reach a fair deal that both rewards our people and implements the changes needed to services more reliable.”
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “It is very disappointing to see that Aslef continues to target those who travel by train to work, school or important medical appointments.
“Aslf is now the only railway union that continues to strike while at the same time refusing to make a fair and reasonable offer to its members. The offer remains on the table and would take the average operator’s salary to £65,000.
“The Aslef leadership must do the right thing and let their members decide their own future, instead of deciding it for them.”