We’re less than a week away from the League One play-off final and more than 20,000 Wanderers supporters have already booked their seats at Wembley.
Excitement is building as Bolton look to return to the Championship for the first time since 2019 and cap a season full of drama and goals by lifting the play-off trophy.
Oxford United still has its own story to finish. It’s only fourteen years since they played National League football, and after eight long seasons in the division, this could be their best chance to climb back into the second tier – a level they haven’t reached since 1999.
Wanderers had the edge in two previous games this season, earning a goalless draw in November and then staging a masterclass in front of the TV cameras in March to win the Toughsheet 5-0.
Past results won’t count in the play-off final, but we’ve looked at the likely line-ups, previous encounters and stats from the season to find out where seven key battles could take place on the pitch or in the dugout fought out.
Goalkeepers Nathan Baxter and Jamie Cummng came through Chelsea’s youth set-up (Image: Camerasport)
NATHAN BAXTER vs. JAMIE CUMMING
Both Chelsea alumni – neither man wants a busy match, but both must be prepared to take the spotlight if a dreaded penalty shoot-out is required.
Baxter’s track record is quite good, according to data from Transfermrkt.com. If you include games from the National League and above, he has saved nine of the 31 penalties he has conceded (29 percent).
Cumming has played fewer games, but of the 26 penalties he has conceded, he has saved three (11.5 percent) – two in MK Dons colours, one in Gillingham.
The Oxford striker will want to avoid the kind of mistake that gave Josh Dacres-Cogley the second goal in their 5-0 defeat to the Toughsheet in March, and see more of the kind of form that helped keep Peterborough out in the latter stages. of their play-off semi-final.
The home defeat to Barnsley was Baxter’s first since returning from injury and of his 17 clean sheets this season, one came against Oxford at the Kassam Stadium in November – coincidentally the only goalless draw he was involved in as Bolton. player.
Gethin Jones will have his work cut out for him with the speedy Josh Murphy (Image: Camerasport)
GETHIN JONES vs. JOSH MURPHY
Murphy’s pace is one of Oxford’s most obvious threats and the former Cardiff City man is likely looking forward to testing himself in the open spaces of Wembley.
Jones has plenty of experience and won’t mind testing Murphy the other way when Bolton have possession.
Des Buckingham used a back three and Kyle Edwards on the left flank in the first meeting between the two sides this season, with Murphy moving into a more central role coming off the bench.
But if the U’s stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has served them well of late, Jones will have to be alert to ensure Murphy doesn’t get any encouragement.
What counts for Bolton’s vice-skipper is the fact that he has played well in both meetings with Oxford this season.
Wanderers skipper Ricardo Santos will look to bounce back with a big performance at Wembley against Mark Harris (Image: Camerasport)
RICARDO SANTOS vs. MARK HARRIS
The Bolton captain needs no reminding of his second-half mistake against Barnsley, which marred what had been a pretty comfortable evening. His imperious performance in the first leg showed Santos is at his best, and while there are concerns over a calf injury that has plagued him in recent months, he remains the key figure at the back.
Harris has anchored Oxford’s attack well this season and is now one away from joining Dion Charles on the magical 20-goal milestone. He is also in good touch, having scored six times in his last six games.
However, his record in the two starts against Bolton was quite poor, with no shots on target and only four touches in the penalty area.
After watching Sam Cosgrove’s performance for Barnsley in the two semi-finals, Harris could well feel he could get some change from Santos and Co when it matters most.
Josh Sheehan has been Bolton’s key playmaker this season, while Ruben Rodrigues has proved to be an excellent number 10 (Image: Camerasport)
JOSH SHEEHAN vs. RUBEN RODRIGUES
It could well be labeled ‘battle of the most fouled players in League One’: Rodrigues won that particular match by 101 to 85 in the regular season.
Sheehan has been hugely important for Bolton, stringing together endless passes of possession and often coming up with the killer pass. His vision to pick out the quick runs of Dion Charles or release the pace of wide men Josh Dacres-Cogley or Randell Williams has so often been the difference.
The Welshman was the best player on the park in the 5-0 home win in March, setting up one goal for George Thomason and then scoring one himself.
Like Sheehan, Rodrigues has been targeted by opponents since signing for Notts County. The former Den Bosch man plays further forward, as a number 10, and boasts a slightly more direct goal threat than Sheehan, with nine to his name so far.
Paris Maghoma’s attacking skills will be crucial for Wanderers, while Oxford will look to the influential Cameron Brannagan (Image: Camerasport)
PARIS MAGHOMA vs. CAMERON BRANNAGAN
Maghoma’s season deserves a finish in the stands in the capital and for brief spells in the semi-finals Barnsley simply didn’t know how to deal with him. Filling the gaps is now the Brentford midfielder’s next challenge as his career matures.
When Sheehan keeps the rhythm and George Thomason is a crunching base in Bolton’s midfield, Maghoma often provides the flashy riffs – those little moments that can turn mundane possessions into powerful attacks.
Brannagan has been Oxford’s leading man for some time. Not only a master of set pieces and penalties, his experience in front of the back four as a screen against the kind of penetrating runs Maghoma can produce has also been important. He has ten assists to his name and will inevitably be at the heart of everything the U’s do on the day.
Randell Williams has developed a rich vein of form for Bolton, Wembley will pit him against Finn Stevens or Sam Long (Image: Camerasport)
RANDELL WILLIAMS vs. FINLEY STEVENS
Williams has achieved a timely purple patch for Wanderers after a few months out of the reckoning, and his attacking work in both games against Barnsley was first-class.
Ephron Mason-Clark presents a unique challenge at this level of football, but it was notable that the Peterborough winger caused Oxford major problems on the same side of the pitch, forcing Stevens to withdraw at half-time after being shown a yellow card. His replacement, Sam Long, has done very well and may get the title for the final. But in this form, Williams will take his chances to make life difficult for both men again.
The two men in the dugout at Wembley showed tactical flexibility in the semi-finals (Image: Camerasport)
IAN EVATT v DES BUCKINGHAM
Both managers deviated from their normal playing style to get the job done in the play-off semi-finals.
Bolton kept it simple in the first leg at Barnsley, going direct and eschewing their normal tendency to build patiently from the back, especially in the opening 20 minutes of the match.
It was to Evatt’s frustration that his side deviated from the game plan in the second half, but hopefully that’s a lesson learned when we face the same situation at Wembley.
Buckingham did an excellent job of suppressing Peterborough’s attacking threats in the first leg and then, like Evatt, had to compromise his own desire to play attacking football by going much more defensive at London Road. Some speculate that the ‘contain and frustrate’ policy could be used against Wanderers, relying on the quick counters of Murphy, Rodrigues and Co for goals.