A new draft of the nuclear deal at the COP28 climate talks, published on Monday, dropped a call to phase out fossil fuels, the main driver of the climate crisis, in a dilution of previous versions and an apparent concession to oil-producing countries that had opposed this. the measure.
Instead, the latest draft calls on countries to take action to reduce global warming pollution, including reducing the consumption and production of oil, coal and gas. Many climate experts and observers have condemned the draft for its vague language and lack of concrete timelines.
More than 100 countries came to the Dubai talks supporting language to phase out fossil fuels, and many are likely to voice their opposition to the latest draft at an upcoming plenary session. Others, such as Saudi Arabia, which have spoken out against the inclusion of any reference to fossil fuels, may seek to water down the text even further.
If the current draft does not gain broad support, negotiators may have to return to the debate.
Previous drafts included several options calling on countries to phase out climate-polluting oil, gas and coal. Observers said this was an encouraging sign that this year’s summit agreement would be stronger than previous years.
Climate advocate and former US Vice President Al Gore said in a post on X that the summit “is now on the brink of complete failure.”
“The world urgently needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this obsequious draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word,” Gore said. “It is even worse than many feared.”
The summit has been mired in controversy after the United Arab Emirates selected Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the state oil company and the country’s leading climate delegate, to lead the talks.
Last weekend, shockwaves went through the top ranks after recent comments from Al Jaber came to light. In a panel discussion in late November, he said there is “no science” behind the demand that phasing out fossil fuels is necessary to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius – the goal of the Paris climate agreement. Al Jaber, who is also an oil executive, fiercely defended his commitment to climate science the next day, saying that phasing out fossil fuels is “inevitable” and “essential.”
“The COP28 presidency has been clear about our ambitions from the start,” a COP28 spokesperson said in a statement after Monday’s draft was released. “This text reflects those ambitions and is a huge step forward. Now it is in the hands of the parties we trust will do what is best for humanity and the planet.”
The new draft calls on countries to take action to reduce global warming emissions, with a menu of options that could include “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in an equitable way.” , orderly and just manner, so as to achieve net zero by: before or around 2050, in accordance with science.” It also includes an option to “triple renewable energy capacity globally.”
Monday’s draft came after marathon negotiations and was published more than six hours later than expected. The conference ends Tuesday, but the new design — which is far from what many countries in Dubai called for — could prolong one of the most controversial, highest-stakes conferences in its nearly three-decade history.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), an intergovernmental organization, has already indicated that its members will not approve the agreement in its current form and has criticized the negotiations for not being transparent and inclusive.
“We will not sign our death certificate. We cannot agree to a text that does not contain strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels,” Cedric Schuster, a Samoan politician and president of AOSIS, said in a statement.
In a statement, a US State Department spokesperson said the draft “seeks to balance a variety of interests” but still needs to be “substantially strengthened.”
Chief negotiators for the European Union called the draft ‘insufficient’.
“I cannot hide from you the fact that the text, as it stands, is disappointing,” EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told reporters. “There are some good things in it, but overall it is clearly insufficient and not sufficient to address the problem we need to address here.”
Hoekstra added that the EU stood by its position and called for the gradual phase-out of coal, oil and gas, only allowing the use of fossil fuels in sectors where renewable energy is difficult to use. For example, heavy industries such as steel production cannot use wind and solar energy.
Alok Sharma, a British MP who chaired COP26 in Glasgow two years ago, said it was “difficult to see how this text will help deliver the deep and rapid emissions cuts we need by 2030.”
“Who does this text actually serve, now that so many countries are speaking clearly about the phasing out of fossil fuels?” Sharma said on X, formerly Twitter.
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, said the latest draft was “a significant regression” from previous versions.
“Amazingly, the country has ditched explicit language about phasing out fossil fuels and instead opted for a vague pledge to ‘reduce both consumption and production’ by 2050,” he told CNN. “This is a clear indication of the lobbying power of the fossil fuel industry, which is influencing global policy to promote long-term use of fossil fuels.”
Rachel Cleetus, policy director and chief economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the draft deal was “extremely disappointing, worrying and nowhere near the level of ambition that people around the world deserve.”
“This design comes with a huge ‘can’ qualifier at the top, making all listed actions optional for countries. It has a litany of actions riddled with glaring loopholes, including a lack of meaningful timelines,” she said in a statement.
Some experts were more optimistic. “We are cooking a fossil-free meal here in Dubai,” Mohamed Adow, director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa, said in a statement. “People will argue about whether this is the right recipe, but the important thing is that all the right ingredients are there.”
Speaking to CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Gore said it was “ridiculous” for the oil-rich UAE to host the climate summit.
“It’s not so much that it’s in a country that produces oil; it is the appointment of the CEO of one of the largest and least responsible oil companies in the world as head of the conference,” said Gore, who characterized Al Jaber’s role as a “direct conflict of interest” and argued that the fossil fuel industry is “too gone far.”
This story has been updated with additional information.
CNN’s Laura Paddison, Ella Nilsen and Rachel Ramirez contributed to this report.
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