When Mikel Arteta addressed the Arsenal squad on Wednesday morning, the message was the same. That was to stay focused on what they had to do and forget about Manchester City.
It wasn’t quite the same as predecessor George Graham prior to Arsenal’s famous final game of 1988/89, when he came on the morning after title rivals Liverpool had beaten West Ham United 5-1. “The best thing for us is that they think they have won,” was his message before the historic title clash at Anfield.
The last day of this season clearly does not have those dimensions, where the top two met for a final clash. It seems unlikely that we will reach the heights of previous Premier League climaxes.
This is the ninth time the title has reached its final day since the league was founded in 1992, but it feels illusory, closer to 2010 or 2014 than 1995 or 2012.
Let’s be honest: does anyone seriously think Man City will make a mistake at home to West Ham United? Much more likely is that they beat them easily, just as they did on the last day of 2014 and just as Chelsea did against Wigan Athletic in 2010. That’s why Arteta needs to tell Arsenal’s players to just concentrate on their own work.
The truth is that the entire tension of the day is based on something that mere probability suggests is highly unlikely. Even if City fall behind, as they did to Aston Villa on a more turbulent day in 2022, does anyone doubt they could bounce back from that?
This was also always the one problem hanging over the upcoming triple title race. All three would have been home with winnable matches. As it is, Liverpool only have the farewell of Jurgen Klopp, but they still have over 80 points.
There are issues that go beyond Man City, as a state project, and their own dominance. Greater financial inequality in football has created a situation where, if the big clubs get it right, it becomes far too easy to win games against the bottom half. Guardiola’s City have just taken this to another level. It will be almost symbolic if Arsenal, as expected, reaches the 89 points needed last season, but City will go one step further to 91 points.
It makes it all the more clear that it is West Ham that the Premier League is depending on for the latest drama, as this was the club involved in the most defiant response of all on the final day. That was the 1-1 draw against Manchester United in 1994-95 that directly denied Sir Alex Ferguson the title. The de facto champions, Blackburn Rovers, also lost – 2-1 at Liverpool.
It was one of the most astonishing days the Premier League has ever seen, largely because of the sheer determination West Ham showed to keep United out. Much of the memory of that day focused on Andy Cole’s perceived misses, even though they were all difficult chances. The highlight was Ludek Miklosko’s stunning acrobatic save from Lee Sharpe’s header.
Is there a good chance Alphonse Areola will do something similar on Sunday to at least make it interesting? Form suggests not. City’s victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday was the first game in eight in which they did not score in the first half. It was only the second game in that period in which they did not score in the first 17 minutes.
History also shows otherwise. West Ham’s result on the final day of the 1994-95 season – along with Newcastle United’s 1-1 draw against Spurs in 1996 and Chelsea’s 2-2 draw against Bolton Wanderers in 1998 – was among just three of the sixteen such matches that surprises. That’s why those teams were naturally at the top. That’s how football happened.
None of these facts fit the hype surrounding the last day ‘sensation’. And if this all feels bleak, this is only reality.
That’s why it’s hard to surrender to the unique tension of a day like this, of nervous players offering bad touches and bad misses.
What might have made it interesting would have been if City had drawn against Spurs on Tuesday, and this Sunday was a shootout on goal difference. Sean Dyche’s Everton were perhaps the worst opponent you would want in that situation. For all the problems they have had this season, Dyche would certainly have relished the chance to deny Arsenal this. It could have made for a hugely fascinating afternoon, especially as City looked to chase down Arsenal’s three extra goals.
As it was, City simply won on Tuesday, in the manner they usually do in these clashes. There is another coincidental oddity in the way that of all the real title races Guardiola faced during his time at the club, David Moyes’ West Ham were the only team to actually take points from the champions. That was a 2-2 draw in 2021-2022.
However, that was a West Ham at a different point of development, just like in 1995.
Instead, this is a team that Moyes is leaving because his era has come to an end and they no longer defend reliably like they used to. That doesn’t lead to drama.
Moyes himself literally laughed at the question of stopping City during his final press conference this week – although it must of course be stressed that his answer was a joke.
“It would be difficult to prevent their Under-14s from winning the title,” said the outgoing West Ham manager. “Professional is the word I would use. We will try to do our best.”
For drama you probably need something further. This isn’t even like 2012, when City faced Queens Park Rangers, but also the ghosts of their own past. They’re a team that’s been there and done that, to the point of being 2-0 down and needing a win with twelve minutes left of the 2021/22 season. Guardiola still made sure they went through the trials and claimed victory.
The only opportunity for something like that this time is if City get off to an unexpectedly poor start, or perhaps miss a few early chances. Events can then generate their own emotional momentum. The day will also likely need Arsenal to go through first just to create that element of pressure.
It says a lot about the Premier League in 2024 that there are attempts to portray all of this as an exciting showdown, but very few people see it that way.
The time has almost come with the likely champions. The Premier League will almost certainly hand City the trophy on Sunday for an unprecedented fourth consecutive year, making it six times in seven years. There has never been such a period of concentrated domination in English football. But there have also never been champions under investigation for alleged breaches of financial rules, as City are doing now.
It’s just one of many reasons why the investigation needs to be resolved as it begins to pose a real problem for the Premier League.
That’s why the competition desperately needs a compelling final day, for the same reasons as a good three-way race. This season has been marked by many off-field issues and potential legal issues.
Instead, the showdown will likely be boringly predictable for many tangentially related reasons. One argument some clubs have made – and why cost control rules are being changed – is that it is so difficult for anyone else to compete. This is reflected in the results.
City fans will still go to the stadium with the same fear, as these feelings are difficult to shake. Arsenal fans will travel thinking: maybe, just maybe.
But for everyone else, it will take something big to move us on Sunday.
Arsenal-Everton starts on Sunday at 4pm on TNT Sports
Man City v West Ham starts on the same day and time on Sky Sports