Divers searching the wreck of a luxury British yacht that sank off the coast of Sicily after a heavy storm have found the bodies of two of the six missing passengers.
Technology magnate Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah were among those aboard the Bayesian, a British-flagged superyacht, when it sank off the Porticello harbour, near Palermo, Sicily, just before 5am on Monday. The others missing are Morgan Stanley International bank chairman Jonathan Bloomer; his wife, Judy Bloomer; Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, Neda Morvillo.
The two bodies recovered Wednesday have not yet been identified. A body recovered Monday from the sinking site was that of Canadian-Antiguan citizen Recaldo Thomas, who worked as a chef on the Bayesian.
The Italian coastguard has not ruled out the possibility that the missing are still alive, with experts speculating that air pockets may have formed when the yacht sank. But Vincenzo Zagarola of the Italian coastguard said the six missing tourists were feared dead.
The Bayesian was moored about half a mile off the coast of Porticello when it sank as the area was hit by a storm, but it is still unclear what caused the 180-foot-long vessel to sink within minutes
Below are some theories discussed so far that look at what might have happened to cause the Bayesian index to drop.
Hatch or windows were left open
There has been some speculation in media reports that the yacht sank because a large hatch or windows were left open. Structural engineer Filippo Mattioni raised the possibility of “an open hatch” allowing water in.
Yacht experts have suggested that the hatches broke or shattered during the waterspout, or were left open because of the warm weather, allowing the Bayesian to quickly fill with water and sink. Andrea Ratti, a professor of nautical design at the Polytechnic University of Milan, said that a boat the size of the Bayesian could only sink so quickly if it took on a huge amount of water.
He said “one can make plausible assumptions that leave room for doubt” about what happened, suggesting that one or more portholes, windows or other openings may have been broken or blown open by the waterspout, allowing water in.
However, an industry expert dismissed the open hatch theory, telling Reuters it should have taken hours for the Bayesian satellite to fill with enough water to sink.
Firefighter diver Marco Tilotta also told the daily Il Messaggero that the wreck was “apparently intact”, with “no cuts, no signs of impact”. However, divers can only see one half of the hull.
Was a retractable keel used?
The Bayesian was built with a retractable keel – a structure that lies beneath the hull and helps stabilize boats and acts as a counterweight to the mast. Both Ratti and Mattioni have suggested that if the yacht had been moored with the keel up, the depth under water would have decreased from around 10m to 4m – making the vessel less stable.
Ratti said the boat may have begun to oscillate wildly, “like a pendulum” in strong winds. This would have put an exceptional load on the mast and possibly led to its breakage.
However, he admitted that “this in itself is not enough to justify the sinking.” Investigators have not yet said whether the retractable keel was used.
The yacht’s gigantic mast
Perini Navi, an Italian luxury yacht builder that built the Bayesian mast, said the vessel had the tallest aluminum mast in the world, at 72 meters long.
American entrepreneur Scott Painter, who took over the Autonomy brand from Mike Lynch, told MailOnline he believes the Bayesian ship is more vulnerable to capsizing in bad weather because of the height of its mast.
He said: “That could definitely contribute to a capsize because it would destabilise the yacht. And if it heeled too far, the yacht could absolutely capsize.”
Sam Jefferson, editor of Sailing Today, told The Telegraph: “She has a very tall aluminium mast – I believe it’s the second tallest aluminium mast in the world – and that wouldn’t have helped. Stability was clearly the issue in the extremely strong winds she was experiencing and I would assume the boat was pinned on its side and couldn’t be righted before it took on water.”
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Karsten Borner, the captain of another yacht anchored nearby at the time of the storm, claims he saw the Bayesian’s mast “bend and then break.” Ratt, however, said an unusually tall mast is not in itself an element of vulnerability in a storm.
Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told the BBC it was difficult to say whether the mast had broken, saying it was “pure guesswork”. He pointed out that divers have said the ship is “basically intact” and if the mast had broken, “that would be a significant thing that would be reported”.
Strange waterspout caused by ‘higher than normal temperatures’
Italian authorities have reported stormy conditions that caused the yacht to sink. It is believed the Bayesian was hit by a waterspout – a rotating column of wind that forms over a body of water and is often compared to a tornado.
According to the U.S. National Ocean Service, tornadoes have similar characteristics to a land tornado and are often accompanied by severe thunderstorms, “high winds and waves, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning strikes.”
Some climate experts have said the storm could have been caused by global warming. Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society, said the sea surface temperature around Sicily in the days leading up to the Bayesian sinking was around 30C – almost 3C higher than normal. He told Reuters: “This creates a huge source of energy that contributes to these storms.”
Borner, the captain of the boat moored nearby, also indicated that the more frequent periods of intense heat during the summer months played a role in the development of such storms.
He said: “The water is… much too hot for the Mediterranean and that certainly causes heavy storms, like we had in the Balearics a week ago, like we had in Corsica two years ago, and so on.”
Will we ever know what happened to the Bayesian?
Since the research is still in its early stages, the explanation for what exactly happened to the Bayesian is no more than a theory.
Experts are struggling to identify a single cause and are reluctant to draw conclusions, especially since the yacht is believed to have top-notch equipment and safety features. Another yacht moored alongside it remained afloat in the weather.
Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, described the sinking as a potential “black swan” – something unpredictable and beyond what might normally be expected of a situation and which could have potentially serious consequences.
Nevertheless, he said he was confident that authorities would get to the bottom of what caused the ship to sink, thanks to reports from survivors, witnesses and examination of the vessel, which appears to have remained intact on the seabed.
Who will lead the investigation?
Leading experts have already shared their knowledge about the possible cause of the sinking of the Bayesian.
The official investigation into the disaster is being led by prosecutors in the nearby town of Termini Imerese.
Ambrogio Cartosio, the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, will lead the investigation together with the assistant prosecutors.
The UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch is also expected to assist with inquiries, with their case likely to take months to resolve.