DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — When United Nations climate talks conclude in Dubai sometime this week, big promises are likely to be made about how the world will fight climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels like oil. , gas and coal.
Negotiators are debating how quickly to cut fossil fuels and how to pay for a major transition to green energy, raising the possibility of a historic deal.
Previous summits have ended with funds set up to help developing countries transition to green energy, with pledges to cut pollution and with pledges to keep the most vulnerable people at the center of policy discussions.
But have countries kept their word?
Ahead of the decisions that will emerge from this year’s negotiations, here’s a look at five big promises from nearly three decades of talk, and what’s happened since.
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS IN KYOTO
The third climate summit took place in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 – one of the hottest years in the 20th century.
The agreement, known as the Kyoto Protocol, asked 41 countries with high greenhouse gas emissions around the world and the European Union to reduce their emissions by just over 5% below 1990 levels. Emissions reductions could come in many ways. places are taking place, from using green energies such as wind and solar energy that do not produce emissions, to making things cleaner that do, such as vehicles with flammable engines.
Despite the agreement to reduce emissions, it was not until 2005 that countries agreed to finally take action on the Kyoto Protocol. The United States and China – the two largest emitters then and now – did not sign the agreement.
In terms of fulfilling the promises made, Kyoto was not successful. Emissions have increased dramatically since then. At the time, 1997 was the warmest year since pre-industrial times. That record was broken in 1998, and more than twelve years later.
But Kyota is still considered a milestone in the fight against climate change because it was the first time so many countries recognized the problem and pledged to do something about it.
COPENHAGEN’S CLIMATE CASH
By the time the 2009 conference took place in Denmark, the world was closing out the warmest decade on record – which has since been broken.
The summit is widely seen as a failure to the standoff between developed and developing countries over cutting emissions and whether poorer countries could use fossil fuels to grow their economies. Yet it did see one important promise: money for countries to switch to clean energy.
Rich countries pledged to channel $100 billion a year to developing countries for green technologies by 2020. But by the early 1920s they had not yet reached $100 billion, drawing criticism from developing countries and environmentalists alike.
In 2022, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said rich countries might finally have reached and even exceeded the $100 billion target. But Oxfam, a poverty reduction group, said it was likely that 70% of the funds were in the form of loans, effectively exacerbating the debt crisis in developing countries.
And as climate change worsens, experts say the promised funds are not enough. Research published by climate economist Nicholas Stern shows that developing countries are likely to need $2 trillion each year for climate action by 2030.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT
It wasn’t until 2015 that a global pact to combat climate change was adopted by nearly 200 countries, calling on the world to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But they decided it would be non-binding, so countries that didn’t follow the rules couldn’t face sanctions.
The Paris Agreement is widely regarded as the UN’s greatest achievement in the fight against climate change. Exactly eight years ago, a standing ovation was agreed upon during the plenary meeting on December 12. Nations agreed to keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, and ideally no higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
The legacy of Paris continues, with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees still at the center of climate discussions. Scientists agree that the 1.5 threshold should be maintained because every tenth degree of warming brings even more disastrous consequences, in the form of extreme weather events, to an already hot planet. The world has not exceeded the Paris Agreement limit — temperatures have warmed by about 1.1 or 1.2 degrees Celsius (2 to 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the early 19th century — but is currently well on its way way there unless drastic emissions reductions are made soon.
GLASGOW AND COAL
Six years after Paris, global warming had reached such a critical point that negotiators wanted to recommit to the goal of limiting warming to the level agreed in 2015.
Average temperatures were already 1.1 degrees Celsius (1.9 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than in pre-industrial times.
The Glasgow summit was postponed until 2021 as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. It included mass protests led by climate activist Greta Thunberg, who helped lead a global movement of youth activists to demand more action from leaders.
After last-minute disagreements over the language of the final document, the countries agreed to “phase out” coal, which was weaker than the original “phase out” idea. India and China, two emerging economies heavily dependent on coal, tried to water down the language.
Burning coal is responsible for more emissions than any other fossil fuel: about 40% of global CO2 emissions. The combustion of oil and gas are also important sources of emissions.
So far, countries have failed to deliver on the Glasgow deal. Coal emissions have risen slightly and major coal-using countries have yet to start moving away from the dirtiest fossil fuels.
India is an example of this. The country relies on coal for more than 70% of its power generation and plans a major expansion of coal-based power generation capacity over the next sixteen months.
LOSS AND DAMAGE IN SHARM EL-SHEIKH
At last year’s climate talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, countries agreed for the first time to set up a fund to help poorer countries recover from the effects of climate change.
A few months after the devastating floods in Pakistan, which killed nearly 2,000 people and caused losses of more than $3.2 trillion, COP27 delegates decided to set up the Loss and Damage Fund so that destroyed houses, flooded land and lost income from crops damaged by climate change would be protected. compensated.
After disagreements over what the fund should look like, the fund was formally established on the first day of talks this year in Dubai. More than $700 million has already been pledged. The commitments – and the amounts that the countries want to pledge – are voluntary.
Climate experts say the pledges are just a fraction of the billions of dollars needed as climate-induced weather extremes such as cyclones, rising sea levels, floods and droughts increase as temperatures rise. ___
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is part of a series produced under the India Climate Journalism Program, a partnership between The Associated Press, the Stanley Center for Peace and Security and the Press Trust of India.
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