As the regular season comes to a close, every Friday we’ll take a look at a game that will likely impact the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes rise and fall. And not to neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No. 1 pick.
Game of the week
Buffalo Bills (10-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
It all comes down to this. A final win secures the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. A loss for the Dolphins means a disappointing drop to the sixth seed, while the Bills could fall dramatically into obscurity this offseason. A similar fall to the sixth seed remains more likely, but should the Bills lose, if Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (resting Lamar Jackson and a likely slate of starters), Jacksonville topples Tennessee, and Houston and Indianapolis don’t tie, then Buffalo waves goodbye in full, a series outcomes with all-or-nothing at stake if it indeed plays out before the kickoff of the final regular season. But either way, the Bills will be fearless after battling to decide their fate with four straight wins in December. A crucial 6-6 twilight sprint that started with wins over playoff-bound Kansas City and Dallas. Another should feel within reach as the Bills take the field with a 48-20 drubbing over Miami already in their Week 4 back pocket. The Dolphins must discover their Super Bowl credentials quickly by rebounding from the submission of last week at the feet of the Ravens. .
What the Bills need to do to win: Head coach Sean McDermott said during a press conference on Wednesday that the Bills need Stefon Diggs “down the stretch.” The comments that followed after questions were raised about the wide receiver’s lack of production over the past four games. Diggs has fewer than 50 yards while running 65% or fewer plays on each. It’s hard to produce when you’re not on the field, so Buffalo could put a little more faith in their dynamic pass catcher to tear into Miami’s soft secondary like he did earlier in the season with 120 yards and three touchdowns. Increased involvement could also help alleviate the pressure on Josh Allen’s rushing touchdowns (eight in the past five games) while cleaning up their struggles with drops and red zone conversions from last week. The defense flew as they produced four takeaways (one per six) in the first half against the Patriots, while the offense flopped with two touchdowns from five visits inside the 20-yard line. Diggs seeing the ball should increase efficiency, a task made easier by Miami’s elite pass rusher Bradley Chubb joining their long list of injured players.
What the Dolphins need to do to win: Miami may relish being suddenly labeled as underdogs to shake off the feeling that they can’t stifle themselves against bigger teams. The pressure is on the Bills to continue their strong streak, both during the season and against Miami, after winning ten of the past eleven meetings. Any complacency should be capitalized on, as the Dolphins will still be confident in a setback given their dominant 7-1 home record. To achieve this, coordinator Vic Fangio must tighten his defense. Their heads were lowered after Baltimore’s opening drive, a sense of defeat drummed into them by Lamar Jackson to the tune of five touchdowns whistling overhead. The way to get some immediate cheer is to stay laser focused and intercept errant throws from Allen. It could be a dangerous game, but Miami’s strength is their run defense, first overall at home with 72.3 yards allowed per game, so keep forcing the pass and mistakes will come, especially if you can pressure the quarterback .
Risers and fallers in the play-off races
Rising: Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts
Saturday night’s main event with the Texans at Colts offers a devilishly simple appetizer to Sunday’s mathematical collapse. The AFC pretenders have all fallen away to eliminate the ifs, buts and maybes about rookies, backups, new head coaches, disappointments, injuries and hiring Jeff Saturday to leave Houston and Indianapolis one win out of the playoffs while the loser turns black. It’s a triumph for the coaching of Houston’s DeMeco Ryans and his counterpart Shane Steichen to have reached this point, given the turnaround needed by last season’s 3-13-1 Texans and 4-12-1 Colts. Barring Kevin Stefanski’s genius gamble on Joe Flacco, it would be the dealer’s choice as to which of the pair would win coach of the year. In the main battle, Indy’s quarterback Gardner Minshew must keep up with his opponent, likely Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud. The Colts’ defense is a bottom 10 outfit, so Minshew best be prepared to take on Stroud to see who bounces back first. The kicker for the eventual winner: sit back and hope your wild card gets a free upgrade by winning the AFC South if Jacksonville loses at Tennessee.
Fall: Philadelphia Eagles
“There’s going to be a loss against Philadelphia,” one prognosticator wrote in these pages last week about Arizona’s impending fate. The Eagles were then, of course, embarrassed by the lowly Cardinals. After leading 21-6 at halftime, Philadelphia suffered a 35-31 defeat. Matt Patricia’s move to take defensive control was certainly intended to shake off Sean Desai’s struggles and inspire a talent-rich roster, but instead it rose by allowing an objectively inferior team to score 29 points in 24 minutes. A playoff spot was secured after their early run to 10-1, but the NFC East crown and second seed have slipped through their fingers due to poor coaching decisions and player infighting. What should have been a starting point in the playoffs against one of the NFC’s low-hanging wild cards appears likely to be a tough road trip to Tampa Bay. Win that and they could next take on the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. If Dallas beats Washington to clinch the division, Philadelphia’s chances look bleak.
Race for number 2 pick
As it stands, three teams have a 4-12 record, but thanks to the strong schedule Washington faces, Washington has the second selection, New England is third and Arizona is fourth. A lot could change if the 5-11 Giants can claim the second pick if these three franchises win and New York loses to Philadelphia. However, the Commanders waved the white flag a while ago so they could grab a new quarterback in Drake Maye or Caleb Willliams if he fell into their lap at pick two. An eighth loss in a row ensures that outcome against the Cowboys. Things get more difficult in Arizona and New England. The Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks who need to win to have any chance of making the playoffs, while New England hosts the New York Jets, essentially meaning a Super Bowl for Bill Belichick in what could be his last game in charge of the Patriots. Despite a lack of offensive talent, the Patriots are favorites to earn an incredible 16th straight win over the Jets on Sunday. The Giants could pull off a huge coup by not moving up for the third pick if Arizona can finish strong at home against Seattle.