Cop28’s failure to call for a phase-out of fossil fuels is ‘devastating’ and ‘dangerous’ given the urgent need for action to tackle the climate crisis, scientists say.
One called it a “tragedy for the planet and our future,” while another said it was the “dream outcome” for the fossil fuel industry.
The UN climate summit ended Wednesday with a compromise agreement calling for a “transition away” from fossil fuels. The stronger term “phasing out” was supported by 130 of the 198 countries negotiating in Dubai, but was blocked by oil states, including Saudi Arabia.
The agreement was hailed as historic as the first reference to fossil fuels, the root cause of the climate crisis, in three decades of climate negotiations. But scientists said the agreement contained many loopholes and did not reflect the severity of the climate crisis.
“The lack of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels has been devastating,” said Prof. Michael Mann, a climatologist and geophysicist at the University of Pennsylvania in the US. “The transition away from fossil fuels has been weak tea at best. It’s like promising your doctor that you’ll ‘get rid of donuts’ after being diagnosed with diabetes.”
Dr. Magdalena Skipper, editor-in-chief of the scientific journal Nature, said: “The science is clear: fossil fuels must disappear. World leaders will fail their people and the planet unless they accept this reality.”
An editorial in Nature said the failure of the phase-out was “more than a missed opportunity”, that it was “dangerous” and “contrary to the core objectives set out in the 2015 Paris climate agreement” to combat global warming limit to 1.5 degrees Celsius. (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels.
“The climate does not care who emits greenhouse gases,” the editorial continued. “There is only one feasible path forward, and that is for everyone to phase out virtually all fossil fuels as quickly as possible.”
Sir David King, chairman of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and Britain’s former chief scientific adviser, said: “The wording of the deal is weak. Ensuring that 1.5C remains viable will require a total commitment to a range of far-reaching measures, including the complete phase-out of fossil fuels.”
There was a disconnect between the stark statement about the emissions reductions needed and the proposed action to achieve those reductions. line with 1.5C. But then a whole bunch of efforts are listed that have no chance of achieving that.”
The scientists said the loopholes include calls to “accelerate” carbon capture and storage to offset emissions from burning fossil fuels, an option that could play a minor role at best.
Related: Cop28 has failed to stop deadly fossil fuel expansion plans – what now?
Dr. Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London, said: “Until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will remain a more dangerous, expensive and uncertain place to live. With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions of people will enter the frontlines of climate change and many will die.”
Prof. Martin Siegert, polar scientist and deputy vice-chancellor at the University of Exeter, said: “The science is absolutely clear. Cop28, by not making a clear statement to stop the burning of fossil fuels, is a tragedy for the planet and our future. The world is warming faster and more powerfully than the police response to deal with it.”
Prof Mike Berners-Lee, a carbon footprint expert at Lancaster University, said: “Cop28 is the fossil fuel industry’s dream outcome because it looks like progress, but it isn’t.”
Dr. Elena Cantarello, senior lecturer in sustainability sciences at Bournemouth University, UK, said: “It is hugely disappointing to see how a very small number of countries have managed to put short-term national interests ahead of the future of people and nature. .”
Dr. James Dyke, associate professor in Earth system dynamics at the University of Exeter, said: “Cop28 had to make an unequivocal statement. While the agreement’s call for the need to transition away from fossil fuels is welcome, it contains numerous caveats and loopholes that risk rendering it meaningless.
“That this deal is being hailed as a milestone is more a measure of past failures than any step change when it comes to the increasingly urgent need to quickly stop burning coal, oil and gas.”
The scientists’ comments resonated that of Anne Rasmussenthe chief negotiator of the Alliance of Small Island States group, whose speech at the conclusion of Cop28 earned a standing ovation from delegates: “It is not enough for us to point to the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science tells us We must.”
Climate science was at the heart of a row that dominated the first week of the summit after the Guardian revealed comments from the Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, in which he said: “There is no science out there, or no scenario out there. that says the fossil fuel phase-out will reach 1.5°C.” Al Jaber later said: “I have said time and time again that the phasing out and phasing out of fossil fuels is inevitable. In fact, it is essential.”
Dr. Lisa Schipper, professor of development geography at the University of Bonn in Germany, said: “The Cop president’s early statement about the lack of science behind phasing out fossil fuels sent shock waves among scientists, especially those who had contributed to the Intergovernmental Development Cooperation. Panel on Climate Change [most recent report]because the science in the report is so clear that fossil fuels must be phased out to avoid a point of no return.”
Related: Cop28 is a farce rigged to fail, but there are other ways we can try to save the planet | George Monbiot
Mann said police rules need to be reformed, for example by allowing supermajorities to vote through decisions over the objections of backwater petrostates and by preventing oil executives such as Al Jaber, who runs the United Arab Emirate’s state oil company, from taking charge of the future. tops.
“Fix it, don’t end it,” Mann said. “The police are our only multilateral framework for negotiating global climate policy. But the inability of Cop28 to make any meaningful progress at a time when our window of opportunity to limit warming below catastrophic levels is increasingly remote is of great concern.”