As the regular season comes to a close, every Friday we’ll take a look at a game that will likely impact the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes rise and fall. And not to neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No. 1 pick.
Game of the week
Miami Dolphins (11-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
Related: Can anyone derail Lamar Jackson and the red-hot Baltimore Ravens?
Story of the season: The unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Miami comes in with the most explosive offense in the NFL under head coach Mike McDaniel. The 40-year-old offensive schemer has extracted every last drop of talent from his roster to post a league-best 411 yards per game, with the devastating speed of Tyreek Hill at wide receiver. His genius cannot possibly be overestimated; With 70 more yards, he will surpass 1,700 this season and a career high at age 29. On the other side of the field is John Harbuagh, 21 years McDaniel’s senior, fielding the league’s best defense, fresh off mauling the Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers. Baltimore brutalized Brock Purdy, as they have done to quarterbacks all season, while giving up the fewest points per game in the league at 16. So that should make the Ravens the favorites come February. That’s it anyway. Now the prize for the only two teams in the AFC to clinch a postseason spot thus far: the all-important No. 1 seed and a juicy first-round playoff.
What the Dolphins need to do to win: Miami has a monumental task in maintaining their offensive machine without Jaylen Waddle due to a high ankle sprain. The Dolphins will miss his superior speed and skill as the No. 2 defense is prevented from marking a No. 1 – mound – out of the play. A look at last season’s spectacular 42-38 victory in Baltimore highlights quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to rise despite extreme pressure. Miami’s QB threw six touchdowns on the day as his team roared back with 28 points in the final quarter. However, Hill’s unparalleled speed still gives Miami an advantage over Baltimore’s secondary without Waddle. No one is faster, so McDaniel can give the Ravens a run uphill by getting the ball into Hill’s hands and forcing the same mistakes in coverage that allowed such an epic comeback last season.
What the Ravens need to do to win: “It’s about trying to make things look different and lie to the quarterback as much as possible,” Ravens secondary coach Chris Hewitt said in November. Baltimore’s disguised coverage, masterminded by Hewitt and defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, put Purdy in an epic tailspin on Christmas Day and was deadly all year long, leading to the league’s best marks in sacks (53), takeaways (26) and a miserly average of 4.5 yards per play. Macdonald must have confidence in his unit’s ability to trick Miami into coughing up the ball by using their trademark simulated pressure – making it look like the blitz is coming when it isn’t – and then slotting in Jadeveon Clowney to plunder the offensive line. The pass rush can only blitz 21% of the time, but wins 46% of those efforts, the third-best rate in the NFL. Stay patient, pull the trigger at the right time and Tagovailoa, like most others, could fall under such a dizzying shadow play.
Risers and fallers in the play-off races
Rising: Detroit Lions
Head coach Dan Campbell has completely changed Detroit since he took over. A once doomed franchise is 11-4 and can now boast winning their division for the first time in 30 years. The Lions’ impressive record also confirms a home playoff appearance for only the third time since 1957. In fact, the NFC’s No. 1 seed is still on the table, but the No. 2 spot is more realistic with the 49ers in the lead if they win their final two games. To earn the second ticket, they must start with another milestone in their incredible season: defeating the Dallas Cowboys 10-5. Campbell must be confident that the Lions’ destructive offensive line, along with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the best one-two running back duo in the NFL (both on 1,000-yard speed), will reach its peak while the the Cowboys failed. Super Bowl contenders this year. Another win on Saturday night will make Detroit feel like more than just contenders.
Fall: Kansas City Chiefs
The perennial darlings of the NFL. The Super Bowl Champions. Patrick Mahomes … loses to the Las Vegas Raiders. On paper, this is nothing to worry too much about. The Raiders have a good defense that interim head coach, Antonio Pierce, has improved and the year of parity dictates that every team has a chance, even against a juggernaut. Kansas City is also still heading into the playoffs. But the way Mahomes is struggling against Las Vegas highlights the offensive malaise he’s now contributing to rather than fighting to overcome. Throwing a pick-six on the play after running back a Raiders touchdown is sloppiness that is an unlikely hallmark of a relatively bad season. After seven years of KC holding the crown, relying on a win over the Bengals or Chargers to clinch another AFC West title is uncharted territory for head coach Andy Reid.
Race for number 1 pick
The Chicago Bears remain in the box seat for the top pick of the 2024 draft as owners of Carolina’s first-round pick next year. The Panthers are at 2-13 and very close to winning the game ahead of Chicago, while the 3-12 Arizona Cardinals are now the only realistic chance to grab the first pick. The chances of the Panthers winning: slim. But what’s intriguing is how their offense continues to improve under interim head coach Chris Tabor. Quarterback Bryce Young’s 312 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay were his best numbers yet and should inspire confidence for a statement victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Jags need to win to stay atop the AFC South. Four losses in a row, the last of which allowed Tampa Bay to drop 30 points on them without an answer, suggests they will struggle and therefore can keep Arizona, the upcoming loss to Philadelphia, in contention.