Newcastle United have always expected this season to be much more difficult than the last, but as we head into spring, Eddie Howe desperately needs another FA Cup win to avoid the season turning into regret and an anti-climax.
Newcastle has been in danger of falling apart for some time now. They will not qualify for the Champions League and could miss out on European qualification altogether due to their stuttering form.
The defense, which had third-choice goalkeeper Loris Karius in goal last weekend, has become a disgrace: error-prone and too easy to get behind. Meanwhile, the three midfielders – forced to play every match for months due to injuries and suspensions – of Bruno Guimaraes, Sean Longstaff and Lewis Miley are being swamped not only by the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, but also by Bournemouth and Luton. at.
Newcastle have conceded 23 goals in their last eight games and taken 11 points from their last twelve games in the league. The defeat at Arsenal may have been the first in five, but Newcastle are not playing well enough to believe they can rely on a route back to Europe via the table.
They have become a team with obvious weaknesses and Howe has been unable to overcome them. He has refused to change the system, sticking to the 4-3-3 formation, which is easy to pass in midfield and vulnerable to pace at the back.
“You can always change systems,” says Howe in response to a question on the subject. “I think you’re saying it’s system-related, I have a different opinion.
“I don’t think our system is necessarily the problem, but how you perform within the system. And that can be any system you choose.”
For the first time, his judgment is being questioned, but he retains a huge amount of goodwill and his job is not threatened at all, according to highly placed sources.
Outside of a few attention-seeking voices on social media, no one is calling for him to leave, but he needs to build some momentum again. This bad run started in early December with costly and painful exits from the Champions League and the Carabao Cup.
Newcastle were 90 seconds away from beating Chelsea in the League Cup quarter-finals, only for Miguel Almiron to make a stupid shot when he should have been running down the clock and Kieran Trippier’s blunder in his own penalty area gifted the hosts an equalizer. Chelsea won on penalties. Almost everything that has happened since can be traced back to that moment. The trust and belief disappeared and even the victories since then felt like a struggle.
A large part of their problems remains in the personnel area. Goalkeeper Nick Pope has been a big miss since dislocating his shoulder during the 3-0 win over Manchester United in early December. He will also not return until mid-March. Center forward Callum Wilson cannot stay fit, Joelinton is out until May after surgery. Sandro Tonali has been suspended until September.
Long-term absentees such as Harvey Barnes and Joe Willock are starting to return, but they are far from match fitness and can only be called upon for brief cameos. Barnes had been out since September, Willock since October.
Newcastle tried to sell Miguel Almiron in January, and less than a month later he is being asked to start every game – as he has done for most of the season – because there is no one to replace him. Anthony Gordon has played almost every minute of every game for the same reason. No wonder he looks exhausted.
However, the FA Cup offers reprieve and retribution. It also keeps silverware dreams alive. That’s important, especially at a club that hasn’t won a major trophy since 1969.
The biggest change since the takeover by the Saudi Public Investment Fund in October 2021, compared to the Mike Ashley years, is that Newcastle has been able to attack the cup competitions. Howe has always been consistent in his approach.
The 46-year-old guided Newcastle to the Carabao Cup final last year, their first cup final since 1999, and this time he can do so again in the FA Cup. In that respect, Blackburn is Newcastle’s most important game so far.
The same was said before Newcastle’s surprisingly comfortable win over bitter rivals Sunderland in the third round in January to see the club progress to the next round, followed by another impressive win on the road against Fulham to seal Tuesday night’s trip to Blackburn Rovers to set up. .
Linked once again with Championship opposition, albeit away from home, Newcastle simply need to reach the quarter-finals, where they may be one FA Cup tie of sorts away from a second visit to Wembley in as many years.
“We’re still trying to decide where this season will end,” Howe said. “Nothing has been decided for or against us.
“I definitely want to suppress the feeling that we feel sorry for ourselves, because that has a negative connotation. We need players who are enthusiastic, ambitious and think clearly about the future.
“I always have a positive attitude. I’ve been in football long enough to know that things change very quickly, both for and against. You have to commit to everything you do, be the best you can every day and hopefully if you do that, good things are just around the corner. This season can still be very special for us, but we have to make it happen.”
Injuries have decimated Newcastle since the start of winter, but bodies are coming back and both Elliot Anderson and Matt Targett returned to training on Monday.
And the bottom line is that Newcastle’s progress since the takeover was never going to be in a straight line. There would be challenges to overcome and Howe remains steadfast under pressure.
“This season has been all those things [frustrating and disappointing] so far,” he added. “It was quite a challenge. When you start the season, that can be one thing, but so many scenarios have happened that have led us to this point.
“But I think we will be better for it. The team will be better for it, we will be better for it and the thought that we could have had another season where everything seemed to be going for us again, that rarely happens in football. This way you can navigate the situation and come back feeling better.”
When we reach the quarter-finals of the FA Cup, everything seems better. At least for a while.