When results fail, football clubs usually have only one response. Sometimes the action is undertaken with a sense of ruthlessness, sometimes with relief, sometimes with the dutiful gloom of someone taking a faithful Labrador to the vet for the last time, but always there is a sense of urgency. “I’m sorry, Nigel/Antonio/Steve, but there’s no other way.” However, the result is inevitably the same: whatever goes wrong at the club, no matter how well the job is done, the manager is the one who takes the blame.
That’s just the nature of the modern game. Managers may just have time to work their way through a dip, but no one ever sees the other side of a quagmire. That should worry Eddie Howe. Newcastle is currently in a slump. Defeats over Christmas to Luton and Nottingham Forest mean they have lost eight of their last 12 games. They are outside the Champions League and the Carabao Cup and while qualification for the Champions League is not out of reach, a small gap is starting to emerge. And January looks tough.
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In the Premier League, Newcastle plays Liverpool at Anfield on Monday, then hosts Manchester City and travels to Aston Villa. In between the first two Premier League games of the year, they face perhaps the worst FA Cup tie imaginable, away to Sunderland.
It’s a match with very little upside for Newcastle, but a first win over their local rivals since 2011 would be welcome. Even if they win comfortably, that’s exactly what a Saudi-strengthened club should do against lower division opposition. Lose and it’s a game that will be talked about for years to come. The risk is not just one of cup abandonment – in some ways an early exit could be beneficial as they can refocus on qualifying for the Champions League – but also the embarrassment that would resonate.
Directors would almost certainly prioritize the league: that is where the money is and it is through Champions League qualification that the club can establish its reputation and attract the highest level of players. Fans can probably understand that, but defeat against Sunderland would be unbearable. Any resting of players, weakening of the side, carries enormous risks – but neither does weakening of the side.
The temptation for Newcastle is always to compare their progress under the Saudi Public Investment Fund with that of Manchester City under Sheikh Mansour. Mark Hughes was appointed city manager in June 2008, three months before the takeover. Although there was always the feeling that he was suffering there, he lasted eighteen months. City finished 10th in his first season in charge, but they were sixth in December 2009 when he was sacked after a 4–3 win over Sunderland.
It was only that morning that news broke that his job was under threat, and there was some unrest among fans over the unexpected nature of the decision. In retrospect, a series draw followed by a 3-0 humiliation at Tottenham had undermined him, and the ease with which Roberto Mancini settled into the job ensured that any reservations about Hughes’ treatment were quickly forgotten.
The situations are not entirely comparable. City were unencumbered by any expenditure regulations and started from a higher base. By the time Hughes was sacked, they were able to field a squad that included Pablo Zabaleta, Vincent Kompany, Nigel de Jong, Gareth Barry, Emmanuel Adebayor and Carlos Tevez. The squad was both stronger and deeper than Newcastle’s is now – underscoring what a remarkable achievement Howe did last season to get his side into the Champions League; a success for which he may now be paying the price.
Imagine if Newcastle had finished eighth last season and not had a Champions League; a less tired side – even if it may be missing Harvey Barnes and Sandro Tonali, even if it has played a big role this season for different reasons – could perhaps make Newcastle look good for Europa League qualification.
That would be fine – and most at Newcastle probably realize that. Although there were some boos after the defeat to Forest, there is no serious fan discontent with Howe. But that wasn’t the case with Hughes. Given the schedule, not much has to go wrong if Newcastle fail to win the league in January. If that were to happen, especially if Newcastle were to drop out of the cup, it would be difficult for even the most realistic fans not to see this season as a step backwards. Perhaps a necessary consolidating step, but would the Saudis also see things this way? Sporting director Dan Ashworth may be a reluctant voice, but it’s hard to believe that without Howe, talks about a possible future wouldn’t take place.
Fatigue and injuries may be a reasonable excuse for Newcastle, but is the situation really worse than Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea, Brentford or Brighton? And there are broader concerns. Newcastle have taken one point from a losing position this season – and that was in the 2-2 draw against West Ham, a match in which they had scored first. Losing leads has become a habit: critically against Paris Saint-Germain and Milan in the Champions League, but also against Liverpool, West Ham, Wolves (twice), Chelsea in the Carabao Cup and then Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.
It may be that this is simply a result of fatigue, but these problems tend to be self-fulfilling. When you come from behind enough times, you start to believe that comebacks are inherent to the character of the club; Lose enough leads and the same sense of fatalism can emerge on the other end. Fostering such patterns if they are positive, or breaking them if they are negative, is part of a manager’s weaponry.
Is Howe able to break the pattern? Can he find a way of playing that doesn’t place enormous physical demands on already tired players? Can he restore declining faith? If he can’t, if the decline continues, he could end up looking like Hughes, an oft-forgotten prelude to the more dramatic story to come.