Some players are better than others. Some managers are better than others. But often success is a matter of contingency, of being the right person for the right job at the right time. Last Wednesday marked four years since Unai Emery was sacked by Arsenal. When he returned to Spain, there was a widespread feeling that his methods were not suitable for travel and that he was probably best off staying there.
It wasn’t absurd to think at all. He was sacked by Spartak Moscow in 2012 after a 5–1 home defeat to Dinamo that left them seventh. His time at Paris Saint-Germain seemed unremarkable, most notable because he was asked to cut the cake two days into Neymar’s lavish birthday party – which seemed a clear indication that egos still reigned in the squad, a situation that culminated in his departure in 2018.
Related: Aston Villa flies under Unai Emery. How high can they go?
His last league match before Arsenal sacked him in 2019 was a 2-2 draw at home to Southampton, where they finished eighth, with four wins from their first thirteen games. Given his success at Valencia and Sevilla – and Lorca Deportivo and Almería – and the baffling nature of his press conferences, it seemed reasonable to assume he was struggling to get his message across outside Spain.
But then you look at the details. Spartak was a political nightmare, with director general Valery Karpin eager to fire a manager and appoint himself. PSG have been a nest of vipers and a return of seven trophies in two years is pretty good compared to those that have come since.
In retrospect, succeeding Arsène Wenger at Arsenal seems like an almost impossible task. Whatever Wenger’s shortcomings at the end, it is the nature of such dominant figures that the disquiet over their removal consumes those who follow. Emery at Arsenal simply went the way of Galba, Robespierre and David Moyes. It feels significant that Ivan Gazidis, Sven Mislintat and Raúl Sanllehi, all of whom had to ease the transition to a post-Wenger world in their different roles, also left quickly.
Emery’s reign was not a disaster: that he had the highest winning percentage of all Arsenal managers except Mikel Arteta and Wenger – better than Herbert Chapman or George Graham – perhaps says more about the financial stratification of modern football than anything else, but they achieved reached a Europa League final and finished fifth in the Premier League, two points clear of third place, in his first season.
Emery was reportedly stunned when he was sacked, a detail that suggests he was not enough of a political animal to survive the turmoil of the post-Wenger vacuum, when everyone was pushing to see how far their roles could be expanded. Had he been given more time he might have been able to create a side of comparable quality to Arteta’s, although the truth is that Arsenal were in a quagmire by the time he was sacked. Bad form followed and there may have been more patience with Arteta precisely because of the relative impatience with Emery. In that sense, Emery almost seems like a necessary phase to go through, a sacrifice that could allow Arsenal to reset. In other words, for him, as for almost everyone else, it was the wrong time.
At Aston Villa the circumstances could hardly have been more different. Between the summer of 2018 and Emery’s arrival, Villa had spent £250m net on transfers. Dean Smith, who had guided them to promotion, took them to an 11th-place finish before he was sacked in November 2021 with Villa in fifth place. Under Steven Gerrard they finished the season two places better, but were in fourth place when Gerrard was sacked after a 3-0 defeat at Fulham last October.
These were ideal conditions for Emery. He had a squad that looked (and turned out to be) much better than its league position suggested, and instead of replacing a legend as he did at Arsenal, he succeeded a manager who never really seemed to be a good fit , who, perhaps wrongly, was seen by many as using the job as a route to his ultimate ambition to manage Liverpool.
The feeling was that a rebound would happen – the caretaker, Aaron Danks, won his first game 4-0 – but what has happened under Emery is more substantial than just the impetus of a new face. Going into this weekend, only Manchester City had won more Premier League points than Aston Villa in 2023, while only Bayern Munich had scored more goals at home in Europe’s top five leagues (although no side in the Premier League’s top half has scored fewer ). away). And this despite injuries that have robbed them of Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendía, Jacob Ramsey and Álex Moreno (who returned against Legia Warsaw on Thursday).
The most notable aspect of Villa under Emery was their offside trap. Since his arrival, Villa have caught 75% more opponents offside than the second-place team, Liverpool. That may imply a high line that goes up recklessly – and the 5-1 defeat to Newcastle on the opening day showed the risk if the plan isn’t executed properly – yet the average depth of Villa’s line is the seventh lowest in the league. That means they can sit deep and absorb pressure when necessary, but they are extremely good at judging when to let runners go and spring the trap.
Although Villa went into the weekend fourth, precedent suggests they are not really in a title race, but they were just two points off the top with a third of the season gone. After visits to Bournemouth on Sunday, Manchester City on Wednesday and Arsenal next Saturday will test their 100% home record, but if they can get results in those matches that perception could quickly change. Qualification for the Champions League seems at least possible.
But even if Villa cannot maintain that pace, even if there is a slump to qualification for the Europa League, which has felt Emery’s natural home for so long, there is a sense that his reputation in England has been restored, that he has been vindicated turned out. What a gifted manager he can be, if the environment is right.