It was one of those moments where, like everyone else, they couldn’t help but watch it. That wasn’t helped by Josh Dreyfuss of 777 Partners insisting on looking like this Succession Kendall Roy by wearing one of those expensive baseball caps. The half-time whistle had blown at Stamford Bridge and some Goodison Park managers had gathered. What could they say about this?
It wasn’t just that another dismal performance left them 4-0 down at half-time against Chelsea, only to lose 6-0. It was also the case that such a mess followed yet another development in their cost control case, with the club announcing they would appeal the latest points deduction, amid continued headlines about the 777 takeover process. None of these are words that suggest a particularly functional situation. That is why others cannot help but remain silent, but there is much more to it than that.
Everyone at the bottom is looking to Everton, more so than Nottingham Forest, because their fate could change the entire face of the Premier League’s fight for survival. There is ongoing new drama in that chase, which could well reach a climax this weekend. It’s one of those moments where so many elements come together in a way that’s almost narratively perfect, only reinforcing the Premier League’s penchant for storylines.
Except this isn’t a particularly encouraging or uplifting storyline. It’s one that actually illustrates a lot of what has gone wrong in the league, especially in the way that fundamental confidence in the Premier League has been undermined by these points deductions.
In a match that almost represents a twisted kind of ‘derby’, Everton host Nottingham Forest on Sunday. It is the first ever Premier League meeting between two teams who have been awarded points for breaching cost control rules.
With Everton currently one point ahead of Forest and two points above the relegation zone, although there is a possibility those totals could change again, the result will go a long way in deciding who remains standing. It could still be most meaningful for the two clubs at the very bottom, whose demise could be hastened by another unwanted derby on Saturday. Burnley head to Sheffield United, where they will both hope to add some respectability to campaigns that have already seen them drifting.
While there have been worse relegation teams, it’s hard to remember a worse relegation battle, especially in terms of what it represents. It was characterized by tastelessness. There was low quality, little entertainment and, grimmer than anything else, very little confidence given the potential changes to the table as a result of this point deduction.
There is actually an argument that it can only be saved if Luton Town stays alive. However, even that prospect is complicated by the news that the Premier League wants decisions on Everton’s appeal to take place before the final weekend of the season so that the “final results” are not changed later.
The situation says different things about each of the clubs involved, but boils down to one damning statement about the Premier League. Any criticism of these clubs must therefore be honored.
This whole situation has been caused by the madness of the Premier League’s dysfunctional relationship with money. That cuts through so much, right down to the righteous anger about ticket prices.
It’s also why this week’s series of European eliminations is rather timely. As immensely powerful as the Premier League is in terms of financial strength, there is a view within the football world that such an obscene level of wealth has effectively prevented innovation. Clubs don’t have to think too much about problems if they can simply solve them with purchases. That’s an option that has been denied to many European clubs because of the way their English counterparts have inflated wages, forcing them to be tactically creative.
In contrast, any sense of logic or far-reaching thought seems to be missing at the bottom end of the Premier League.
While Everton and Forest have only themselves to blame for their overspending, this stems from an impulse that runs much deeper and is at the heart of the Premier League’s foundation. They are both trying to compete in a world that is beyond them. That point is absolutely not intended to absolve either club, but it does concern questions about identity and – yes – ambition.
Despite the Premier League selling itself on its unpredictability, the table is generally consistent with the wage bill. These labor costs are usually quite stratified. There isn’t that much variety. Despite this, this wage race has consistently led to so many irrational decisions, especially since higher payments don’t actually change that much. The shape of the Premier League hasn’t really changed. One line in football is that higher wages just mean players have four Lamborghinis instead of three. The big six will still be the big six. The same teams tend to finish in the Champions League places, with strange deviations, like what Aston Villa could do this season.
It is ultimately wrong that a league awash with so much money has only become even more stratified, with fewer clubs able to win. That’s even more annoying if you’re one of the most successful clubs ever in the English league, like Everton, or two-time European Cup winners like Forest. This is not to say that every club is entitled to success, but the sport does have a responsibility to create competitive balance. So much more money could and should be redistributed.
It is even more wrong that a historic club like Everton, which has benefited from hundreds of millions by playing in the Premier League for so long, is sold by an American private investment group like 777. If that is the case, this should be the biggest warning sign that something has gone seriously wrong with the economic model.
On the other side of the relegation zone, Forest and Burnley are further victims of this stratification. The problem is that they have become almost an integral part of “Premier League 2”, that small group of clubs that seem destined to only go up and down the Championship forever. The parachute payment system means they have too much money for the tier below, but not enough for the elite.
The old example of this was Fulham and Norwich City swapping places for four consecutive campaigns. This season we may see the high point – or perhaps the low point – with the three relegated Premier League sides from 2022/2023 directly taking the place of those promoted.
As befits such a distorted situation, the moods at the clubs involved are not necessarily what you would expect.
Everton are theoretically in the best position as they are two points above the deficit, even if that could change. You just wouldn’t think so given the atmosphere around the club. Morale is said to be extremely low. The Sean Dyche effect has long worn off, which has only made football boring and undisciplined. There is an argument that Everton are the worst team to watch in the Premier League at the moment, which ties into the debate over whether they are the worst team. It’s all the more poignant because there are some brilliantly talented people at Goodison Park who know what’s what and really care about this institution. Their fate has sad real-life consequences for so many in the club.
Forest are one point behind Everton, but not yet beaten. Even though Nuno Espirito Santo’s football is not much more lively than Dyche’s, there is more liveliness in their team. That is, emphatically enough, thanks to some of the enormous expenditures that raised such questions in the first place.
Burnley faced questions about their recruitment, albeit from a different angle. It’s like they overhauled the squad only to make things worse. It lacks a real identity, despite Vincent Kompany being an ideology manager. Burnley has been so easy to get to instead, and it’s starting to sour the mood. Their morale is currently described as not much better than Everton’s.
That can be poison at precarious moments like these.
That has created a slight feeling of regret at Sheffield United, but only because they have come together again under the returning Chris Wilder. Performance has improved dramatically, as has the mood. It is now believed that they would have had a chance of avoiding relegation if this had occurred a little earlier. Again, you wouldn’t guess that this is a side that will almost certainly go down.
The weekend could decide a lot. Everyone will still be watching Everton. This Premier League’s most inappropriate storyline could have just one more thing to top it off.