Six weeks ago there was widespread celebration among intermediaries when the Football Association was defeated in a court case seeking to impose a cap on fees for brokering transfer deals. Nine days in January and agents aren’t really making any money: it was a period of lots of talk, but a shortage of deals being completed.
The middlemen in the multi-million talent contracts can only think back to a year ago, when clubs were ready to make big mid-season spends. The window wasn’t even open when Liverpool played for Cody Gakpo, a Boxing Day coup to get the Dutch forward ahead of Manchester United.
The spending didn’t stop there. Leeds found the money to boost their survival hopes with a £10m move for Max Wöber, and Southampton had a similar tactic with an early move for Mislav Orsic, parting ways with £8m.
Then there was Chelsea. Benoît Badiashile cost £35 million for the first team, while David Fofana and Andrey Santos were bought for the academy for a combined £28 million. By the end of the month they had broken the Premier League transfer record for Enzo Fernández having already beaten Arsenal with the signing of Mykhailo Mudryk for £89 million.
A year later, for a number of reasons, such outrageous spending no longer occurs. Agents are talking to clubs, holding meetings and assessing the foreign market for available players, but there have been no major signings yet. Some are waiting for a deal to boost spending, if Eddie Nketiah or Conor Gallagher can revive the market. But it is far from certain that those two will be released in the next three weeks.
FFP rules are more relevant than ever
Perhaps the biggest deterrent to spending is Everton’s punishment for breaching the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules. The abbreviation for this in football circles is ‘FFP’, as it was called ‘financial fair play’ when it was introduced. Clubs cannot lose more than £105 million in three years and Everton’s 10-point deduction has shown how seriously this is being taken.
It has led to frustration among many, with the situation being comparable to wealthy owners who are allowed to buy a house but not allowed to furnish it. But it no longer takes a back seat when it comes to recruitment, with clubs now considering it as one of the key considerations when planning their spell.
A club like Newcastle with their Saudi owners cannot simply buy their way out of an injury and suspension crisis. In fact, as reported by the Daily Telegraph, they have been looking at cutting Sandro Tonali’s wages while he is banned for gambling offences, as this will free up money that can be spent as cover. Other clubs that received player windfalls in previous periods have spent or are about to use up the proceeds.
Other factors play a role beyond PSR. Last summer, the Saudi Pro League conducted something of a float to secure players from the Premier League and elsewhere in Europe. Aleksandar Mitrovic’s departure meant £45 million for Fulham, while Liverpool received £52 million after the departures of Fabinho and Jordan Henderson.
But the mid-season period is not expected to be as active, especially as the eight overseas spots in the SPL squads have been used up by the big clubs. There is no room for Galacticos at the moment, although that could change in the summer if they increase club quotas. Mohamed Salah, subject of a bid just before the summer deadline, is not expected to feature until after the season ends.
Fading power of La Liga
The European leagues are also not that strong, meaning there is no escape route for players looking for a transfer. Jude Bellingham’s move to Real Madrid for £88.5 million masked just how much of a fading force La Liga is. Spain has dropped out of the top five spending countries and, without Bellingham, would be closer to Championship level than the top five of the Premier League, Saudi Pro League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A.
The reasons for the drop in spending include rules that La Liga clubs are bound by, which was the perfect illustration in 2021 when Lionel Messi agreed a new contract to stay at Barcelona, but the terms did not meet La Liga’s financial regulations . La Liga president Javier Tebas talks sustainability when interviewed about the league and its future. He believes La Liga is on the right track.
“The British market is a doped market,” he said last season. “It is quite dangerous for the markets to be doped and inflated, as has happened in Europe in recent years, because that could jeopardize the sustainability of European football. I am happy because our clubs are economically sustainable and that means we have a future for many years to come.”
In the eyes of players looking for a transfer or agents negotiating transfers, Spain is no longer the destination it once was. After the Bellingham deal, the next biggest summer transfer was Antoine Griezmann, at the age of 32, making his return to Atletico Madrid permanent for £17.5 million. After that we find ourselves in the territory of the 14 million euros paid for César Montes (Almeria) and Artem Dovbyk (Girona).
Impact of Afcon and Asia Cup
Another important factor in the lack of transfer actions is the Africa Cup of Nations and the Asia Cup. Clubs have lost players during these big mid-season tournaments, and simply put, they keep their players as cover. Tottenham have lost Son Heung-min, Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma, so there would be no point in losing any more.
Spurs are one of the more active players in this quiet market. Genoa’s Radu Dragusin has been handed a £21.5m deal to give them an extra centre-back, while Timo Werner will go on loan. These may not be the January blockbuster deals of Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll moving through the Premier League, but they have certainly shown that there is a club willing to do business early. Ben Brereton Díaz to Sheffield United is the other big loan, but there is a feeling that exciting action is yet to come