Arsenal: P18 Pnt 40 GD+20
The case for When Martin Ødegaard crossed the very last battle of Luton on December 5, there was an inevitability about Declan Rice’s headed winner. Not just because Rice had done it before – think of his decisive 96th-minute goal against Manchester United on September 3 – but because Arsenal have made it a habit; the never-say-die push that advertises the mentality of champions. They can also count late winners against Manchester City and Brentford, along with an 84th-minute equalizer against Chelsea. What underlines the idea that this will be Arsenal’s year in the Premier League are the foundations that Mikel Arteta has laid. Rice’s addition to midfield was huge; he helps the team immensely defensively, especially against the counter-attack, giving him control, the buzzword of the season so far. The defense itself has grown and developed an understated security, with William Saliba at the center of everything. Then there is the increased strength in depth compared to last season, when a surprise challenge ended in April, the pronounced threat on set pieces and the ability of Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka to make things happen.
The case against The biggest reason is called Manchester City; the feeling, which can be sensed in the power centers at Arsenal, that the defending champions are ready to produce an exhausting run in the second half of the season. The way they do. Can Gabriel Jesus also score enough goals as number 9? Can the club cope with the rising expectations? (Plus, the pressure is always on at Arsenal.) Are they as fluid in attacking terms as last season? And will Arteta’s maneuvering of the goalkeeper position, away from Aaron Ramsdale to David Raya, be a sting? DH
Festive fixtures Thursday: West Ham (u), Sunday: Fulham (a)
The case for The rankings, consistency of results and a five-point lead over Manchester City (who have a game in hand) are good reasons to start, although there are more factors behind Liverpool’s recovery as a title contender. Senior players who know what it takes to win the Premier League and benefit from a City drop-off – Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and Trent Alexander-Arnold – have seen last season’s failure to qualify for the Champions League as a personal insult to lead Liverpool’s revival. A new, high-quality midfield has emerged faster and more cohesively than perhaps even Jurgen Klopp envisioned. The squad has the depth in most departments and a range of attacking options that are the envy of many Premier League clubs, and Liverpool have the ability to salvage the occasional off-day.
The case against Dramatic comebacks and late winners are hallmarks of champions – especially when they come with ten men – but Liverpool have often needed them in a season where, with the exception of the home win over Aston Villa and the Carabao Cup defeat to West Ham, rarely controlled an opponent or a game from start to finish. Liverpool are a team in transition, and it shows at times. The results against other members of the so-called big six should improve. Liverpool are bottom of the mini-league and are the only side not to beat a ‘big six’ rival this season, having drawn with Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal and losing to Tottenham. With Joël Matip out for the rest of the season, Liverpool could be under serious pressure with another injury in central defence. Klopp claims it is unlikely a solution will be found in the January transfer window. AH
Festive fixtures Boxing Day: Burnley (a), Monday January 1: Newcastle (h)
Aston Villa: P18 points 39 GD+16
The case for Villa is free of expectations, but make no mistake: Unai Emery, who is demanding at the best of times, knows how well placed they are. Villa Park has become a fortress, with Villa winning 15 of their past 16 home games. Emery has played down comments from colleagues billing his title contenders, but his starting XI have proven capable of upending the best. Emiliano Martínez is an elite goalkeeper. Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Douglas Luiz in midfield are among the best in the division and they have pace to burn in talisman Ollie Watkins and forwards Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey. Unlike most of their rivals, Villa can concentrate almost exclusively on the league until March, when their Europa Conference League adventure begins again in the last 16. Barring an FA Cup trip to Middlesbrough in January, they can continue full steam ahead in search of a first league title since 1981.
The case against Can Villa handle the noise? For most of this team, a title race represents new territory. The obvious concern is whether Emery has enough reserve power. For example, when Leander Dendoncker came into action against Arsenal, Villa’s grip loosened. Watkins has started every league match and while Jhon Durán has impressed, there is no equal replacement. The same goes for Martinez. At the same time, Villa have shown this season that they can compensate for the absence of key players such as Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendía. Perhaps Sheffield United’s dogged display last Friday, when Villa looked out of ideas against a low block and came close to empty-handed, will provide a blueprint for others on how to quell Emery’s winning machine. B.F
Festive fixtures Boxing Day: Manchester United (a), Saturday: Burnley (u)
Tottenham: P18 points 36 GD+13
The case for No one would have thought Tottenham would feature in articles like this at the start of the season, given what had happened last time: the implosion under Antonio Conte; also the sale of Harry Kane in August. For the same reason, no one thought Spurs would be top of the table after ten games, but they were, after their best start since 1960-61. There was a statistic that said they became the 13th team to have 26 points or more after 10 games in a Premier League season; six of the previous twelve won the title, four finished second, Arsenal finished third in 2007-08 and Newcastle finished sixth in 1994-95. In other words, make this kind of start and history says you’re almost always in it for the long haul. Spurs had a shaky five-game run after that, but it said everything about the buy-in that Ange Postecoglou has generated that there was no examination of conscience/mutiny. The manager’s bold style suits players and fans alike; the first 10 games showed what is possible when everyone is available.
The case against The Spurs are at the beginning of their project under Postecoglou and lack the necessary quality in all areas and, moreover, the strength in depth – even if they do not have European football to clutter their schedule. Given the club’s return of one trophy from Daniel Levy’s 22-year presidency (the 2008 League Cup), it is certainly too much to ask to suddenly win the biggest of them all on home soil. DH
Festive fixtures Thursday: Brighton (a), Sunday: Bournemouth (h)
Manchester City: P17 points 34 GD+20
The case for At a club built to win and keep winning, Pep Guardiola’s relentless drive to do so has seen him win five titles in six years and the determination to “stay there” (a mantra of the Catalan) is also the fuel that drives his players forward. Seven points from the past eighteen is not championship form, but after Manchester City’s victory at the Club World Cup, Guardiola can build on the victory three years ago. Then, after a point against West Brom in mid-December and five behind Tottenham, Guardiola turned the team around and a fifteen-match winning streak took them to the title. Despite the recent slump, the gap to Arsenal is just six points with a game in hand. Oh, and Kevin De Bruyne, missing since the opening minutes of the season, will be back soon.
The case against How to replace a treble-winning captain like Ilkay Gundogan was the problem Guardiola struggled with in the closing stages of the season. His answer was Mateo Kovacic, who does not belong to the same cultured class, and City also lost an important influence in the dressing room. Riyad Mahrez also left and his successor, Matheus Nunes, has been peripheral until now. Zooming out and motivating a team that has been champions for the past three seasons is still a significant challenge for Guardiola. JJ
Festive fixtures Wednesday: Everton (a), Saturday: Sheffield United (u)