Is Britain’s worst ever rain linked to ‘frightening’ unexplained warming of the Atlantic Ocean?

Thirteen months ago, the Atlantic Ocean’s sea surface temperature soared, far beyond normal range. Since then, temperatures have remained more than 1 degree Celsius above normal – and no one knows exactly why.

Yahoo News spoke to University of Reading expert Dr Till Kuhlbrodt about why Atlantic sea surface temperatures can be so high – and what this could mean for British weather and the future of climate change.

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), temperatures in the world’s oceans are at a record high, with the global average reaching 21.06 degrees Celsius in February. But the change in the Atlantic Ocean’s temperature has been rapid and unexpected, says Dr. Kuhlbrodt.

“Suddenly it was out of your usual reach for that time of year. It stayed in the envelope where it usually was, and since it has lasted for 13 months it’s clearly not a glitch. So we started analyzing and investigating what this could be It’s something we haven’t seen in decades,” he adds.

Dr. Kulbrodt isn’t the only scientist concerned about warming waters around the world. Rob Larter, a Cambridge, England-based marine geophysicist who researches Arctic ice levels, recently told the New York Times, “It’s quite frightening, partly because I don’t hear any scientists who have a convincing explanation for why we got this way.” a departure.

“We are used to having things under pretty good control. But the impression at the moment is that things have gone further and faster than we expected,” Larter continued. “That’s an uncomfortable place to be as a scientist.”

Professor Eliot Jacobsonretired professor of mathematics and computer science, follows the temperature rise on X (formerly Twitter) and describes the situation as “bananas”.

Earth’s oceans absorb 90% of the excess energy our planet has accumulated, which is caused by heat-trapping gases from human activities. Currently, the planet absorbs 1.9 watts more energy per square meter than is radiated back into space. Per year, this is an amount of energy equal to 300 times the amount of electricity used worldwide.

What could it mean for Britain?

Atlantic sea level rise could lead to changed weather patterns – and could even be the cause of Britain’s damp weather in recent months.

England saw record rainfall in the 18 months to March, according to preliminary Met Office figures released earlier this month.

About 1,695.9 mm of rain fell between October 2022 and March 2024. This is the highest level for an 18-month period in England since comparable Met Office data began in 1836.

The increase in sea surface temperatures is linked to disrupted weather, Dr. Kuhlbrodt explains, because air can hold more water when it is warmer.

“That means there is a much greater risk of very intense precipitation, especially for us here in Western Europe – geographically we are downstream,” he added.

But the warmer sea surface has also disrupted the jet stream — the winds about five to 10 kilometers high that blow from west to east, Dr. Kuhlbrodt said.

“The jet stream winds that normally come across us are more meandering in Britain, thanks to warmer temperatures, so we have longer phases of very, very wet weather.

“But there is also a chance of longer periods of dry weather: so we have risks of floods and flash floods, then droughts and the risk of wildfires and we have to look at the water supply.”

Research carried out by the University of Reading in 2012 after a gloomy summer also questions whether there is a link. “Computer simulations suggest that these changes in ocean temperature are affecting the atmosphere above. Heat in the North Atlantic causes a trough of low pressure over western Europe in summer, sending rain-bearing weather systems straight to Britain.

Professor Rowan Sutton, director of climate research at the National Center for Atmospheric Science and researcher at the University of Reading’s Walker Institute, said at the time: ‘The North Atlantic has slowly alternated between warmer and cooler conditions over the past hundred years. The 1990s saw a rapid switch to a warmer North Atlantic and we believe this increases the likelihood of wet summers over Britain and hot, dry summers around the Mediterranean – a situation that is likely to continue as long as the North Atlantic Ocean is still in a warm phase.”

Could it be related to shipping?

The team investigated whether small particles from burning fuel could be behind this increase. Since 2020, an agreement with major ship owners in the Atlantic Ocean has led to a shift to higher quality fuels, which means much lower soot and sulfur emissions.

These particles have a cooling effect because they reflect sunlight. So the team explored the idea that reducing soot could have a warming effect.

“There is an observable effect, but it is small – not enough to explain this temperature increase,” Dr. Kuhlbrodt explained.

Is it a glimpse of the future?

The team’s calculations show that the warming of the Atlantic Ocean, which coincided with devastating floods in Europe and wildfires in Canada, is what we can expect to be the ‘new normal’ as the world warms by 3 degrees Celsius.

“If you actually reach 3 degrees Celsius of warming sometime this century (hopefully not), then this would be the new normal,” Dr. Kuhlbrodt said. “This is what we’re going to run into if we don’t really take drastic measures to reduce fossil fuel costs and reduce CO2 emissions.”

The researchers say there is a possible link between warming of the Atlantic Ocean and record levels of sea ice in Antarctica, suggesting a change in ocean currents and possibly, according to Dr Kuhlbrodt, ‘hidden climate links between the poles’ . .

He added: “It looks like the North Atlantic is warming more rapidly over the last seven or eight years. Could there be some kind of circulation change that is leading to stronger warming in the North Atlantic? That’s certainly something we want to investigate.”

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