Story of the season: A new hierarchy has been established in the AFC. The Ravens dethroned the Chiefs in the regular season by posting a 13-4 record that is even better than it seems when factoring in an excusable loss of Tyler Huntley and the backups to Pittsburgh in Week 18. The Chiefs However, they won’t care much about that. Their rocky run through January still yielded victory in the AFC West as they squeaked by, thanks in large part to their defense picking up the significant deficit after Patrick Mahomes’ down year. The master quarterback can turn it on like a faucet, though, and he was near his best when the Chiefs beat the Bills last weekend. He’ll have to do it all over again if he wants to show the Ravens who the kings of the AFC really are.
What the Chiefs need to do to win: Andy Reid must figure out how to maintain offensive efficiency despite the NFL’s best defense. Mahomes helped Travis Kelce get off the stat sheet last week, scoring for the first time in eight games. But Mahomes’ job was made easier as he targeted the Bills’ depleted linebackers. He won’t have that luxury on Sunday. Reid will have to be creative in his play as he leans on the explosive Isiah Pacheco to keep Mahomes from having to win the game on his own. If the quarterback improvises to beat the Ravens from the start, Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme, based on confusing the opposition by showing blitz but dropping into coverage and vice versa, could very well thrive.
What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore needs to maintain its defensive ferocity. They smothered CJ Stroud last week, pressuring the quarterback on 51.4% of his dropbacks while completing 7 of 17 passes for 62 yards under duress. Yes, they recorded zero sacks, but the intensity was enough to keep Stroud under lock and key. Even the defensive backs tricks stopped behind the line of scrimmage. It’s unlikely Mahomes will be as impressed as a rookie like Stroud, but if the Ravens turn heat on Kelce, the quarterback will have to look for significantly less dangerous receivers. The man who can lead the fight for the Ravens is safety Kyle Hamilton. He has the size at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds to take on Kelce while excelling positionally in the line of scrimmage. Perfect for covering the tight end’s hunting zone in the middle of the field.
Key player for the Chiefs: Jason Kelce, beer drinker. Forget Taylor Swift, the Chiefs have a new mascot. Travis went out with big brother in the stands, 40 beers deep, and stuck it out with Bills fans. Give this man a megaphone, five fully stocked refrigerators and let him go to work in Baltimore. Kelce, Kelce, KELCE.
Key player for the Ravens: Lamar Jackson, quarterback. “We can’t keep trying to go deep and develop routes because our guys can only block for so long. I gotta move, I just gotta get the ball out,” Jackson told his quarterback coach Tee Martin at halftime after Houston rocked him with two sacks before halftime. An average time to throw against the blitz of 3.44 seconds dropped to 2.02 seconds in the second half as he pitched a 24-0 shutout. Running, passing, elite reading of the game. MVP.
Prediction: Ravens over Chiefs. The Ravens feel like a team that still hasn’t had to go to the extremes that Kansas City had to find to beat Buffalo, so they should have enough in the tank to match a Mahomes-led offense. Tight end Mark Andrews’ return could be the turning point. Jackson will reportedly get his red zone monster back to further split the Chiefs’ defensive priorities, a big boost if the Ravens are thrust into a shootout.
NFC Championship Game: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 6:30pm ET/11:30pm GMT)
Story of the season: Dan Campbell took over the Lions with a fiery speech that focused on biting kneecaps. It was a mantra that seemed somewhat ridiculous at the time, but it led to a total culture change, a first NFC North title and Detroit’s first back-to-back home playoff wins. Now they are one game away from their first Super Bowl. The Lions are this season’s vibe champions, a tantalizing combination with the cool, calm and ultra-calculating San Francisco 49ers. A historically destructive offense sent the Niners right back to this stage, their fourth visit in five seasons, as the No. 1 seed. Kyle Shanahan will feel like his team has long deserved a spot in the Super Bowl, but the underdog will still be hungry for a kneecap or two.
Related: I was at the Lions’ last NFC title game in 1992. It didn’t end well
What the Lions need to do to win: Ben Johnson’s offense needs to get out of the blocks. Detroit’s defense — which has given up more than 400 yards in both postseason wins this year — isn’t good enough to stare San Francisco down. The Lions shouldn’t be too proud to be from Green Bay. The Packers destroyed Dallas by scoring on the opening drive after opting to nearly beat the 49ers in similar fashion. What helps most is that the Lions have already done it – in Week 4 against the Packers at Lambeau Field – with a win built on a 17-3 lead in the first half of the second quarter. Detroit should take the initiative and then exploit the 49ers’ tendency to get tight when under scoreboard pressure. Shanahan finally winning a game last week when he was down five or more points (to post a 1-30 overall record when he needed a comeback) might be the exception that proves Detroit’s path to success .
What the 49ers need to do to win: Detroit’s leading pass rusher needs to be stopped. Green Bay pressured Brock Purdy five times through right tackle Colton McKivitz and another five times past right guard Aaron Banks. The 49ers need to help their guys given the significant assignment of stopping game-ruining defenseman Aidan Hutchinson. Soft fouls also need to be eradicated: San Francisco has given up the second-most penalties this season.
Key player for the Lions: Frank Ragnow, center. The cornerstone of Detroit. Ragnow embodies Campbell’s last-man-standing mentality. A sprained knee against the Bucs, he continued to block. A sprained ankle on top of that, no problem. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs star in this ironman.
Key player for the 49ers: Deebo Samuel, wide receiver. San Francisco is said to be “cautiously optimistic” about Samuel’s availability to face Detroit. If he approves, they should be cautiously confident of making it to the Super Bowl. The 49ers are 12-2 this season – and average 31.4 points – when Samuel plays a full game, compared to a 1-3 record with an average of 18.8 without him. Shanahan needs his Swiss Army knife back.
Prediction: 49ers over Lions. Detroit’s shortcomings on defense are too great to overcome, especially against the pass. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffery and Samuel are too strong when he takes the field. The forecast dry weather should also support Purdy’s accuracy.