After James Tavernier scored Rangers’ ninth penalty in ten home games on Saturday, a Scottish football conspiracy theory becomes an almost serious debate.
Rival fans have argued for years with little evidence that Glasgow’s blue half gets the better refereeing decisions, especially from the spot. However, it doesn’t take a tinfoil hat to raise an eyebrow at the eye-catching statistic that contrasts Rangers’ recent run of winning penalties this season with a run of 71 games in the Scottish Premier League without conceding a single goal.
Remarkably, this extends across Var’s entire history in the Scottish Premiership. Since the technology was introduced on October 21 last year, Rangers have been awarded 19 penalties in league and domestic cup matches without being penalized once from 12 yards. By contrast, Rangers have conceded four penalties in their last 19 European games.
‘Another Var decision in Rangers’ direction in the 90th minute’
Tavernier’s last two attempts from twelve meters were particularly annoying for the opponents. On Saturday, referee Kevin Clancy penalized Dundee’s Aaron Donnelly, after a Var assessment, for bringing down Abdallah Sima from a corner. “I couldn’t really see what was happening,” said Dundee’s on-loan striker Amadou Bakayoko. “I didn’t really look at it closely. But they always manage to get penalties, don’t they? It’s one of the things that happens there.”
Dundee manager Tony Docherty was even more scathing: “I’m hugely disappointed with the decision to award the penalty and Var’s involvement in it.” He added: “The image presented to Kevin Clancy favors the penalty given, but the reality is that it is crowded in the penalty area, Sima is holding Aaron Donnelly’s shirt and Kevin Clancy felt that Okay. It’s difficult because we’re refereeing matches again. Kevin Clancy’s positioning is good and it’s not an obvious mistake. My problem with it is the image it gets.”
But the sense of distrust was even more feverish three home games ago as Rangers won their eighth pin in seven games to salvage a last-minute point against Aberdeen. Opposing manager Barry Robson was glowing. “For me it doesn’t look good that in the 90th minute another Var decision goes in favor of Rangers,” he said.
Var had shown a clear pull from Stefan Gartenmann to Connor Goldson and the pundits were divided over whether the Rangers man had then dived.
But Robson’s response – in which he added that “too many decisions have been wrong in Scotland” – prompted some established figures in the game to suggest some concern was justified.
🗣️If Goldson falls over, no one touches his shirt.”
🗣️ “Punishment for stupid shirt pulling, but Goldson dived.”
🗣️ “It’s a penalty!”
Joe Lewis, Chris Sutton and Kris Boyd give their thoughts on the stoppage time penalty awarded to Rangers 👇 pic.twitter.com/PC2q68kVQc
— Sky Sports Scotland (@ScotlandSky) November 26, 2023
“It would hardly be an exaggeration to suggest there is bias,” wrote BBC Scotland presenter Richard Gordon in a column in the Press and Journal, questioning Rangers’ lengthy spell without a penalty.
“I’m not suggesting it’s deliberate bias, that the referees are deliberately ignoring incidents, but for whatever reason, it clearly exists.”
Gordon, a lifelong Aberdeen fan who contributes to the club’s matchday programme, added: “How else can this remarkable statistic be explained unless those Rangers defenders are somehow infinitely more disciplined than any of their opponents?”
Others, however, insist that there are alternative explanations. John Brown, the former Rangers defender, suggested Robson had used the penalty shootout to put pressure on whoever takes charge of the Viaplay Cup final when the two clubs are reunited next weekend.
Former Old Firm derby referee Steve Conroy, meanwhile, was also withering in his assessment of the comment, adding that the ongoing conspiracy theories are having an insidious impact on confidence. “I know Celtic-Rangers can be inflammatory but there is also a lot of bad feeling in the Aberdeen-Rangers game. The last thing we need is a manager coming out and blaming the referee for his own player made a mistake,” said the 31-year-old coach. Conroy told Telegraph Sport. “That just adds fuel to the flames. It is irresponsible.”
However, Robson and Aberdeen were not the first club to raise suspicions, with ‘Penalty Rangers’ becoming an increasingly common meme shared between rival fans.
Just days earlier, at Celtic’s AGM, Hoops chairman Peter Lawwell took a jibe and said that “John Greig handled the ball the last time they [Rangers] admitted”.
At the same meeting, club CEO Michael Nicholson added a similar comment when asked why Brendan Rodgers’ side were never awarded a penalty against St Mirren early last month when Kyogo Furuhashi was brought down in the box by Mikael Mandron. “Penalty Rangers,” was Nicholson’s response.
Where did the conspiracy theory begin?
Steven Gerrard’s memorable referee tirade at the start of the 2018/2019 season was labeled by conspiracy theorists as the moment when pressure was put on Scottish officials to give Rangers favorable decisions.
After Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos was sent off by referee Clancy, Gerrard raged at the decision. He was also furious for not dismissing Aberdeen defender Dominic Ball for a foul in his own penalty area.
“It’s not just today, it’s been happening for a while,” said Gerrard, just three months after his appointment as manager. “It’s been happening for a while. I think this has been happening for seasons. That’s my opinion, just my opinion.
“It’s not just today, I believe it’s been happening for seasons. That’s just my opinion. It seems like the world is against us. I’ve looked at images. I don’t think we’ll ever get anything for us. Everything always seems to be about Rangers so someone should give me some answers to that.
From that point on, no other team in the Scottish Premier League has conceded more penalties.
Is it just Rangers who get a large number of penalties?
Instead of the era of Greig stalwart of the 1960s and 1970s, it was in fact January 2022 when the Rangers goalkeeper was last tested from 12 yards. Conroy, who came out as a Celtic fan after retiring in 2013, and data analysts both point to the club’s record as a top team in Scotland to explain the long run.
“Lies, damned lies and statistics,” Conroy said, quoting the phrase popularized in the United States by Mark Twain. “There is no way to prove this is anything other than a statistical error. Celtic and Rangers are, on the whole, slaughtering every other team in Scotland, so they will undoubtedly be conceding more penalties than anyone else and conceding fewer.”
Last season, Celtic conceded just eight penalties in the league all season, while Rangers conceded 10, just behind Hearts on 11. StatsBomb’s Jaymes Monte published his own analysis on X after the Aberdeen penalty, comparing penalties to touches.
“Rangers get slightly more pins than average (relative to touches in the box), but not significantly,” he concluded. “Aberdeen also above average.” His figures show that, according to his model, Celtic and Hibernian are among the teams that could feel ‘offended’ if they fall below the average line.
‘People doubt whether I support Celtic because I gave them a penalty’
Conroy and Roddy Forsyth, a BBC broadcaster for 30 years and the Telegraph’s Scottish football correspondent for 30 years, say the close-knit nature of Scottish football means such conspiracies take root so quickly.
“Be warned that Old Firm fansites are not rabbit holes – they are habitats and if you visit them you can stay there forever,” Forsyth said. “Since the introduction of Var, the four pitch officials are now supplemented by another three in the studio. If the rumor were true, it would mean a busload of Rangers fans in charge of every SPFL matchday programme!
Conroy added: “There are people who will never be convinced that there is no conspiracy and collusion to conform to whichever side they choose. It will never be put to bed. Although I am a Celtic supporter, people doubt that I am telling the truth because I once dared to disallow a Celtic goal against Rangers. This is brought up again and again. I am not a cheater and I don’t know anyone who has cheated.”
Claims of bias are nothing new. In 2019, referee John Beaton contacted police after being targeted with threatening messages online. Chris Sutton was also among the critics after unconfirmed photos emerged of Beaton allegedly drinking in a Rangers pub.
For Conroy, however, the prospect of stopping Rangers or Celtic-supporting referees from Old Firm derbies is not a solution. “I have no problem with a Celtic supporter or a Rangers fan playing a Celtic Rangers match,” the 56-year-old doctor said. “We are not cheaters and we are a small country. You would lose half the referee population.”