It wouldn’t resemble the original Arsenal terrace chant. “We have taken a big step towards winning the league at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.” However, the prospect is real. And ahead of Sunday’s derby – the 195th edition of the match that defines the mood in north London – it is utterly sickening for Spurs supporters.
Spurs couldn’t stop the Arsenal Invincibles in April 2004 and it’s fair to say they haven’t heard the end of it since. It wasn’t the first time their hated rivals had won the competition at White Hart Lane either. Arsenal did just that on the final day of the 1970-71 season, when Ray Kennedy’s late header gave them a 1-0 win.
Related: Havertz and White run riot for Arsenal to crush Chelsea to boost title hopes
It’s amusing to re-read the 2004 match report on the official Spurs website, how it discusses the team’s thrilling second-half comeback from 2-0 down, culminating in the “just reward” of Robbie Keane’s stoppage-time penalty for 2-2. The payout line? “Oh, and Arsenal won the title.”
It can’t happen again. Every Spurs fan knows that and nerves will undoubtedly bubble up on Sunday as their team has not performed brilliantly in the last five games following defeats at Fulham and Newcastle. Arsenal, on the other hand, are flying after their 5-0 thrashing of Chelsea on Tuesday. They believe that the defending champions, Manchester City, will drop a result to let them in. They have to have that mentality.
Spurs haven’t lost that many at home to Arsenal in the Premier League (six in 31, to be precise), but they were beaten 2-0 in the corresponding match last season and back-to-back defeats are not part of any plan also. theirs.
One might even wonder whether, faced with an either/or question, Spurs supporters would prefer Arsenal to fail for what would be a first title since 2004, or for their club to achieve their own goals for the season – in other words a Champions League. finish via competition position.
The stars align on Sunday but there could be some crises of conscience a week later when Spurs visit Liverpool, who also remain in the title race, and host City on May 14.
Let’s say the starting point for every fan is how his or her team is performing. Furthermore, if Arsenal were to miss this, it would not change the reality that they have had another excellent season, one in which they have made further progress and shown that they can compete both domestically and on the Champions League front , where they reached the quarterfinals. finals.
For Spurs, the related and more interesting question is how much they need Champions League football next season; how much it would really change the landscape for the manager, Ange Postecoglou.
The Fight for Fourth™ is always a major storyline, often involving Spurs, although this time it seems to have sunk in somewhat, mainly due to the assumption that England would get a bonus spot in the expanded 2024/25 Champions League. meaning fifth place in the Premier League would be rewarded.
Last week, as Arsenal, City, Liverpool and West Ham left Europe, the sudden realization dawned that it would almost certainly be Germany who would take one of the two extra playing places, with Italy having sewn up the other. And so, drumroll, it’s Aston Villa in fourth versus Spurs in fifth; Villa are six points ahead with a better goal difference of five, having played two more games.
Related: Alexander Isak leads Newcastle in double thrashing of toothless Tottenham
The first thing to say is that Spurs obviously want the Champions League. It would put Postecoglou’s debut season in a more favorable light; it would simply be better to have than not. It comes down to the primacy of sporting achievement and pride. But why doesn’t there seem to be the same competitive energy within the Spurs fanbase as in recent seasons?
There are numerous factors and as we approach the derby, it is appropriate to mention the one on tribalism; in that Spurs are not fighting for the Champions League against a traditional rival. It would certainly be different if they or, say, Arsenal achieved qualification, as they have in the past, most recently two seasons ago.
That race set up Spurs’ 3-0 home win over Arsenal in the third last game and everyone remembers what was said at the time. Spurs were ready to get going under Antonio Conte, while for Arsenal it was a major setback for the Mikel Arteta project.
What does thinking look like now? And this is also part of it. Spurs supporters have heard the line to infinity about the rise in Champions League revenue leading to greater influence in the transfer market, bigger signings and ultimately a title challenge, silverware.
They have had five Champions League seasons since 2016/17 and enjoyed some truly memorable nights, but they have not made the decisive step at home or abroad. So perhaps bear with some supporters who have seen the Champions League last 16 exit film before and are wondering if there might be bigger chances in a Europa League campaign. Especially because there will no longer be any Champions League dropouts in the competition.
This is the slower and more stable mode of development that Postecoglou sometimes seems to support; the idea that moving from a season without European football to a season with European football at the highest level may be too big a step for a new team. The Europa League has less physical and emotional pressure. It is more acceptable to rotate players.
A major change in the Spurs story this season is that they don’t have to deliver Champions League football to keep Harry Kane. Would anyone from Postecoglou’s squad demand a move if they were left out of Europe’s elite competition? He is on record as saying that he does not want players who sign purely for the Champions League.
The manager will be supported with significant sums in the summer, but Champions League income is unlikely to materially change his budget. The game-changer for Spurs has been the rebuild of the stadium, which has put the club in a strong and sustainable financial position; also to attract the new investment that chairman Daniel Levy talked about at the beginning of this month.
Spurs’ season was colored by revisionism. Beforehand, with a new manager, a half-new team and no Kane, there was little more than cautious optimism. The writers of The Guardian predicted an eighth place. But after the stunning start – W8 D2 L0 – a subsequent return of 34 points from 22 games was seen as a disappointment. Transpose that form over 38 games and you get 58.7 points, which would have put Spurs in tenth place last season.
Overall, progress has been made, even if the bar was lowered by last year’s disaster, when the team limped home with 60 points. They have equaled that number with six games left to play. On the other hand, last season was the run-up to the Champions League last 16. This season, the domestic cups have again led to failures.
If the fans believe Postecoglou as a man and for the way he wants to play, it feels like the harsher judgment will be reserved for next season. That will be when we see if he can lift Spurs from fourth or fifth place. Whether he can follow the path illuminated by Arteta.