The absurd truth behind Arsenal’s title challenge and why Mikel Arteta has already overachieved

The contrast said almost as much as the numbers on the table. In the final minutes of Arsenal’s victory over Manchester United, Mikel Arteta was “nervous”. How could he not be? This was the title. This was the last chance. It wasn’t a great win, as the manager admitted, but that’s almost predictable at this point. You don’t go this deep into a title race like this without picking up wins that are just about getting through it. That ensured that the feeling in the dressing room afterwards was one of relief and release.

“It’s all buzzing there,” Arteta said. “We really wanted to live in the moment.” The team had said in the locker room before the match that they had to “earn it”.

It now stands in contrast to almost every Arsenal season in this generation. This team heads into the final day of the season with the title still alive.

They haven’t been this close since 2004, when they won the award, of course, but this wasn’t even that. That’s because Arsene Wenger’s invincible performance was so good that they inevitably ended it early. This is something else Arsenal haven’t felt since 1998-99. Arteta’s side have even surpassed that team 25 years ago and not just because they have already achieved eight points with a game in hand. That Arsenal lost their penultimate match of the competition, away to Leeds United, to decisively cede the advantage to Manchester United.

This Arsenal defeated United in their penultimate match and put Manchester City under pressure again in Tuesday’s match against Tottenham Hotspur. It’s still the Gunners who need a favor when they take on a treble team, sure, but from a completely different point of view.

It also makes the coming days a different experience for almost everyone at the club. Few will remember that week of 1998-99 – or even 1988-89 – but they will no doubt be consulted. The old stories are perfect to relieve the pressure.

With the challenge of keeping up with Man City so great, Mikel Arteta said they have had no room for error 'since January' (PA Wire)

With the challenge of keeping up with Man City so great, Mikel Arteta said they have had no room for error ‘since January’ (PA Wire)

That is something Arteta has been aware of throughout this challenge. As suffocating as a week like this can feel, the Spaniard wants his players to enjoy it, to feel it. This is what they play for: to be in the fight when it matters.

“That’s part of our journey, to have a big chance of winning the Premier League,” he explained. “We wanted to experience that. We’re going to have a normal week of preparation to try to be in the best space to compete and beat Everton and then rise to the occasion.”

That’s been the message throughout this title challenge, which dates back to January – to play, to enjoy.

It was one of the reasons why Arteta beamed about his pride for the team. There is of course another element. One that the Arsenal manager will probably never really comment on, as he was previously assistant manager of Manchester City.

That’s the feeling of Arsenal facing the almost impossible. It is now likely that Arteta’s side will reach 89 points and that will still not be enough to win the title. There was a hint of defiance on that subject in the manager’s comments after United’s win.

He said they had “no margin for error since January – we have to keep winning and winning and winning in every context.” That’s about what they managed, apart from one defeat against Aston Villa. In the seventeen games since the turn of the year, Arsenal have won fifteen and drawn one, a draw against Etihad that so few have managed.

They had to be almost perfect and that was almost the case. That run has contributed to 27 league wins this season, which is a club record. Arteta was also keen to bring that up.

Leandro Trossard's goal gave Arsenal victory at Old Trafford - meaning they head into the final day of the season with the title still alive (AP)Leandro Trossard's goal gave Arsenal victory at Old Trafford - meaning they head into the final day of the season with the title still alive (AP)

Leandro Trossard’s goal gave Arsenal victory at Old Trafford – meaning they head into the final day of the season with the title still alive (AP)

“It is the highest number in the history of this club in 130 years,” the manager said. “That’s not progress, that’s history.” This was a line that stood out during the manager’s post-match press conference, and there’s an undeniable element of self-service in it.

There is also a deeper truth. Arteta is right that it is history, but not in the way people think. To put it bluntly, and as Liverpool have repeatedly found out, it is absurd that a team can get so many wins and so many points and not win the title.

It has been a growing problem for more than two decades, stemming from the financial inequality in the Premier League, but City have taken it to the extreme. This was the required level. Even if Pep Guardiola’s side don’t reach the 100, 98 or 93 points of previous title wins, the challenge of keeping up with them in any context is enormous. Teams really have to push themselves and that is exceptionally difficult to maintain, as Jurgen Klopp has found out.

The German’s departure also shows that this is a point worth emphasizing: to keep up with City until the last day is a huge achievement. That’s essentially what Arteta was getting at. People will snipe, but it’s true.

Others will point to the defeat to Aston Villa or the expenses as reasons why they should have won this title, but they are wrong. One defeat in the last seventeen games should not take a team out of contention in this way. Such setbacks should be a normal part of the build-up, which actually enriches football. Twists and reactions usually create title races.

It’s already been noted that despite the pace of this run-in, it hasn’t felt all that entertaining so far. That comes from knowing that City are very unlikely to make a mistake. They’re too good. There is too much power and strength in the long term. Arguably the greatest manager of all time has been placed in near-perfect conditions, with little expense spared, so he has this team pretty much exactly how he wants it. That is the scale at which the city of Abu Dhabi has been able to operate.

Arsenal set a new club record with 27 league wins this season (AP)Arsenal set a new club record with 27 league wins this season (AP)

Arsenal set a new club record with 27 league wins this season (AP)

And that’s the thing about the expenses. If you want to keep up with them, you have to spend money. There is no choice. This is the minimum threshold. Arsenal have actually overachieved in that regard, as their wage bill is much lower than City’s. That remains the best measure for assessing spending, as there is a 90 percent correlation between that figure and league position. Arsenal are in the best possible position at the moment. They have improved from last season and pushed the champions to their limits.

City must win their last two games. The penultimate, away to Tottenham, will be strange given the emotional context. The home fans may not necessarily want to win as it could give their big rivals the title. Arsenal, meanwhile, need a favor. Arteta will obviously watch that match, as he does every big match. Some players will do that too. Others will try to do something different.

It all plays a role in how distinctive this week will be. Arsenal just have to feel it and not really think about it.

They shouldn’t even really think about City. They’ve done their part and it’s an achievement on its own terms. That is a big contrast with the twenty years before. You just have to look at the numbers on the table.

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