As the regular season comes to a close, every Friday we’ll take a look at a game that will likely impact the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes rise and fall. And not to neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No. 1 pick.
Game of the week
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Story of the season: Following the Bills’ thread is a must at this stage of such an exciting ride for both the franchise and the AFC as a whole. After surviving a battle with the Super Bowl champions to keep their season alive, they are 7-6 but need to keep piling up the wins due to their poor division record and the small detail that half the conference has an identical has a profit-loss column. Victory has the potential to send the Bills from 11th place to seventh in the postseason, so beating Kansas City was critical, but now so is toppling the Cowboys. Dallas rolls into Buffalo fresh off dominating the Philadelphia Eagles, a statement win that puts them in pole position in the NFC East and keeps their pedal to the metal against the 49ers in the race for the NFC’s top seed. Winning remains their most likely and possibly only chance to capture the conference crown. The pressure is intense.
What the Bills need to do to win: Buffalo may be behind, but their impressive home form (5-2) still gives them the advantage. They must feed off Bill’s Mafia and their unique enthusiasm to continue their impressive run. The fever will reach colossal heights when the team returns home after a month away from Highmark Stadium. The crowd can also help pump up receiver Stefon Diggs, who is experiencing a slump at the wrong time for his team. Diggs started strong with 100 yards or more in five of his first six games, but in his last six games he averaged fewer than six catches and 58 receiving yards per game. The lack of usage needs to be addressed by the coaching staff, give the crowd what they want: Diggs’ comeback special.
What the Cowboys need to do to win: Head coach Mike McCarthy’s offensive production is assured by quarterback Dak Prescott working with receiver CeeDee Lamb. The former’s sublime season has him leading the MVP race, while the latter needs 107 yards and two touchdowns to best his previous best year yet. The defense must contain quarterback Josh Allen to avoid being caught in a high-stakes shootout where whoever has the ball last wins. Statistically, Allen provides both carrot and stick for them: He leads the NFL in giveaways and total touchdowns with 17 turnovers and 33 scores. Under pressure, they can try to reduce Allen’s influence; he has completed 50.4% of passes under fire, compared to 75.2% in a clean pocket this year, and has thrown six interceptions under pressure. The considerable talent of pass rushers Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler should be unleashed by defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey maintaining a perfect start to his career would also be very helpful. The former software engineer, 28 years old, has not missed his first 30 field goal attempts, an NFL record.
Risers and fallers in the play-off races
Rising: AFC North (mostly)
“Maybe the tradition of the Pittsburgh Steelers is over,” Ben Roethlisberger said on his podcast Footbahlin with Ben Roethlisberger, reflecting on his team’s loss to the lowly Patriots. If there’s one thing Ben Roethlisberger knows, it’s Footbahlin, so their race is on, possibly forever. (Certainly not still angry about the cost of living in Tom Brady’s shadow.) Meanwhile, the division’s three other franchises are thriving. The Baltimore Ravens rise above the AFC’s 7-6 dogfight, while the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals are right in the mix thanks to their backup quarterbacks or backup of the backup of the backup in case of the Browns. The No. 1 seed is squarely in the Ravens’ grasp — only the second in franchise history if they capture it — while their thriving passing attack can keep it that way against a Jacksonville Jaguars team afraid to lose any more ground are at the top of the AFC South. Cleveland’s unlikely success with 38-year-old Joe Flacco feels fragile, but at 8-6, two wins from their last four games (Bears, Texans, Jets, Bengals) should put them in the postseason. Incredibly, Flacco’s last dance is performed near the house that Jake Browning built for narrative interest. Back-to-back wins for the Bengals have brought hope from the ruins of Joe Burrow’s early exit and with the offensively inert Vikings and Steelers next, Browning could well the story of such an incredible year across the league. Pittsburgh is also 7-6.
Falling: Houston Texans (7-6, currently No. 8 in AFC)
The Houston Texans have been a delight in 2023. The underdog story of a perpetually downtrodden team finding its feet never fails to capture hearts and minds. Their story has gone into overdrive as a first-year head coach and former player at DeMeco Ryans has brought success with a roster surrounded by rookies. The Texans were dead last before preseason in betting odds to make the Super Bowl, but are still in the playoff bubble and Ryans is, rightly, the favorite to be named coach of the year. However, the loss to the Jets may have brought their wonderful ride to a halt. Another notch in the loss column when the AFC is this suffocatingly tight is painful enough, but missing CJ Stroud and Nico Collins for this week’s meeting with the Titans could be too much to overcome with Tank Dell already out of the line up is. The quarterback’s moves in the concussion protocol made Davis Mills the likely starter against Tennessee. Defeat could quickly follow and a significant skid in the playoff race. Will this team have enough fight left for a Week 16 matchup with Flacco’s Browns?
Race for number 1 pick
The Carolina Panthers can only improve after flatlining the Saints, but a trip to Atlanta where the Falcons play to regain NFC South supremacy will only end one way. There was nothing new at the time, but Zach Wilson provided a predictably completely unpredictable moment for the New York Jets by being fantastic against Houston. The comeback boy will even have raised a smile from Aaron Rodgers as they flew out of the race for the next highest selections. Now in the battle for pick No. 2, we have New England, Arizona and Washington facing Kansas City, San Francisco and the LA Rams respectively. The Chiefs are on the warpath, San Francisco is the best in the NFL and LA needs to win to stay relevant, so in this year of utter chaos, at least two of our best of the worst are sure to win to put the loser in pole position. . WHO? Who knows?