Much has been said about this season’s exciting Premier League title race, but the hunt for automatic promotion places in the Championship is shaping up to be just as dramatic.
With Leicester City, Ipswich Town, Leeds United and Southampton all battling it out for the top two places with just three games remaining, it will be one of the most scintillating results England’s second division has ever seen.
Fourth-placed Southampton looked well out of the race just two weeks ago after falling eight points behind the three leaders.
However, none of the top three teams seem able to pull away, with all three repeatedly dropping points when it matters most, presenting an unlikely opportunity for Southampton to sneak back into the mix.
Here, Telegraph Sport evaluates each club ahead of their final games of the season.
Ipswich town
Ipswich, a recently promoted side with a modest wage bill, have been the surprise package in this season’s promotion race. The side, coached by former Manchester United assistant manager Kieran McKenna, are hoping to secure a place in the Premier League for the first time since 2002.
After an impressive run of nine wins in ten games, Ipswich looked to start the run-in in sublime form. But they have collapsed at the wrong time and have collected just two points in their last three games despite conceding just two goals.
Chance creation and efficiency in front of goal, which were strengths all season, have turned into weaknesses.
In April, they averaged 4.7 expected goals (xG) in four games, their second-lowest total in a month this season. April is also only the second month in which McKenna’s team have underperformed against their xG, scoring fifteen more goals than expected throughout the campaign.
Ipswich still have away trips to two teams with an outside chance of making it into the play-offs. On the final day, a home game against 22nd-placed Huddersfield looks favourable, but they currently sit just one point behind safety and won’t go down without a fight.
Upcoming matches
Hull (a) – April 27
Coventry (hours) – April 30
Huddersfield (h) – May 4
Leicester city
It was a strange campaign for Leicester City. Through the first 23 matches, Enzo Maresca’s side were on course for a championship record in points total. Recently they have found themselves in relegation form, losing six of their last ten. Automatic promotion, which not long ago seemed like a foregone conclusion, is now up in the air.
A deeper look at the numbers shows that Leicester’s astonishing pace in the first half of the season was unsustainable. By Christmas they had achieved 58 points in 23 games, 12.1 more than their expected points total (xP). Since then, they have only collected 30 points in 19 games, seven points short of their xP. Simply put, they return to their true level.
Nevertheless, Leicester’s fall from grace has been remarkable. Just two months ago they enjoyed a 12-point lead at the top of the table. Now they are in second place (albeit with a match to go) with two more teams right behind them.
Promotion is especially crucial for Leicester given their financial problems. They posted a loss of £89.7 million for the 2022-2023 season and faced punishment for allegedly breaching Premier League and Football League rules.
With three home games to go and a good chance that neither Preston nor Blackburn have much to play for, Leicester could turn the tide and finish strongly. They will be hoping that Jamie Vardy, who has eight in his last 13 appearances, comes up with the goods for them as he has done so many times.
Upcoming matches
West Brom (u) – April 20
Southampton (u) – April 23
Preston (a) – April 29
Blackburn (h) – May 4
Leeds United
Leeds were thirteen and seven points behind Leicester and Ipswich respectively at mid-season, but a 15-match unbeaten run at the start of 2024 has put them back into automatic promotion contention.
But just as their rivals made a mistake, giving Daniel Farke’s side the chance to take the lead, Leeds themselves collapsed, with just one point from the last nine available.
The main problem was a faltering attack: in the month of April, Leeds underperformed their xG by three goals (four goals of 7.0 xG), their worst underperformance of any month this season.
Star player Crysencio Summerville (17G, 8A), recently crowned the division’s best player of the season, has been kept quiet. And Patrick Bamford, who scored seventeen goals in the PL in the 2020/2021 season, has missed several big opportunities.
Leeds still have to play mid-table Middlesbrough and relegation-threatened QPR before a potentially all-important home match against Southampton on the final day.
They will look to avoid a repeat of 2018/19, which saw then-Marcelo Bielsa’s side take just one point from their last three games and drop from second to third before ultimately losing to Derby County in the play-offs .
Upcoming matches
Middlesbrough (a) – April 22
QPR (a) – April 26
Southampton (h) – May 4
Southampton
Russell Martin’s team would not be present in this race. After losing to Ipswich in the 97th minute on April 1, their dreams of reaching the top two seemed to be crushed. At the time, Opta gave them only a 0.9 percent chance of automatic promotion.
That number has since risen to 7.7 percent, before it could even explain last night’s convincing 3-0 win over Preston.
At a time when the teams around them have crumbled, Southampton have gone one step further. They have now won three games in a row and scored eight goals.
In that time frame, Che Adams alone has scored as many goals as Ipswich, Leicester and Leeds in their combined nine games combined: four.
With three away games remaining, including a midweek trip to Leicester and an appearance at Elland Road on the final day, Southampton undoubtedly have the toughest run of games left. However, the games against their direct rivals offer them a chance to make up ground in the race for the top two.
Upcoming matches
Cardiff (a) – April 20
Leicester (a) – April 23
Stoke(u) – April 27
Leeds (a) – May 4
Conclusion
Never has a team achieved 90 points in the championship and not been promoted. There could possibly be two this season, which shows how special this campaign is proving to be and how tight the margins are.
Opta’s model gives Leicester and Ipswich an edge in the battle for automatic promotion, but don’t count out Leeds and even Southampton.
In the last three games, Russell Martin’s team has collected three more points (nine) than the three leaders combined. It is up to the table leaders to prove that their recent poor form is just a mistake, otherwise Southampton can and will take advantage.