The first days of the new year brought confirmation of disturbing news: 2023 was the warmest year on record. Researchers expected this to be the case amid brutal daily and monthly record temperatures – but just how significant were these numbers, and what does this mean for the future of our planet? warming planet?
These graphs give a clear picture of how it happened, and also what is likely to come in the not so distant future.
How hot was 2023?
Copernicus, the European Union’s climate agency, confirmed this week that in 2023 there was a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, almost 59 degrees Fahrenheit. That temperature was 0.17 degrees Celsius higher than the previous record year of 2016. Climate records are “tumbling like dominoes,” says Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus.
Compared to the average pre-industrial level from 1850 to 1900, last year was 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer, Copernicus found.
“2023 is not only the warmest year on record, it is also the first year in which all days are more than 1°C warmer than pre-industrial times,” she said. “Temperatures in 2023 will likely be higher than any period in the past 100,000 years.”
What is causing the increase? According to data analyzed by scientists at the nonprofit Climate Central, it’s a combination of factors. Natural causes cause some variation in temperatures, but humans have had a much greater influence on observed temperatures during this period.
Over the past 100 years, fossil fuels have been released by the burning of fossil fuels carbon dioxide — one of the most powerful greenhouse gases warming the planet — “at a much faster rate than any other point in Earth’s previous 800,000 years of history,” says Climate Central.
“The main cause of rapid global warming is pollution from human activities,” the group explains. “…This year’s record average temperatures reflect extreme and often dangerous heat events caused by human-induced climate change.”
1 degree Celsius – a small number with a big impact
Copernicus found that 2023 was the first year in history in which every day the temperature exceeded 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Almost half of those days were more than 1.5 degrees warmer, and two days – both in November – were more than 2 degrees warmer.
The data shows that in the second half of 2023, every month was warmer than the same month in any year, with July and AugustThese are the warmest two months ever measured. Climate Central found that every day in July, a quarter of the entire world’s population “felt a very strong impact of climate change,” including 31 consecutive days of temperatures of 110 degrees Fahrenheit in Arizona, unprecedented ocean temperatures off the coast of South Florida, and large-scale agricultural losses.
Record warm sea surface temperatures
Last year it was not only warm in the air, but also in the sea. Copernicus found that 2023 saw the highest daily sea surface temperature on Earth ever measured by ERA5, their climate reanalysis system. According to the group, sea surface temperatures typically peak in March and then rise again in July and August. But last year we saw all-time highs every month from April through December, with the peak for the year being 21.02 degrees Celsius, or just under 70 degrees Fahrenheit, on August 23 and 24.
The climate pattern known as El Niño emerged last year and contributed to global warming, but the natural event so far has not been as strong as those in 2015 and 1997, Copernicus said.
Record number of billion-dollar storms in 2023
A rise in temperatures in the world’s air and oceans is fueling extreme weather, making hurricanes, rainstorms, droughts and other weather events stronger and more frequent. NOAA found that the U.S. had 28 weather or climate disasters in 2023 that each caused $1 billion or more in damage, far surpassing the previous record of 22 from 2020.
Until about 2008, the number of annual billion-dollar storms did not exceed five, and has increased sharply since then.
At the same time, the number of days between these major disasters has decreased, Climate Central notes. In the 1980s there were usually between sixty and more than a hundred days between major events. In 2023 they took place every few weeks.
2024 – another year with expected climate impacts
Last year was hot, but experts agree 2024 could be even hotter. The British Met Office published a forecast in December suggesting that this year will break records again, especially with a rise in temperatures due to El Niño. According to Met Office scientists, 2024 is likely to be between 1.34 degrees Celsius and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. If that happens, it would be the eleventh year in a row that the global average temperature has been at least 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The Met Office’s Nick Dunstone said there is a “reasonable” chance the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold will be breached by 2024, which climate scientists have long warned would bring an era of even more catastrophic weather events worldwide .
“It is important to recognize that a temporary excess of 1.5°C does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement,” he said in a Met Office statement, referring to the agreement between world leaders to commit to action that would prevent this threshold from being exceeded. . “But the first year above 1.5°C would certainly be a milestone in climate history.”
To officially cross the threshold would require a long-term average, not just the one-year average. However, as temperatures continue to rise, the impacts will continue to worsen.
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