The Met Office has dismissed reports of a heatwave next week as Brits try to hold on to hopes that warmer weather will finally arrive to brighten their summer.
A number of independent weather forecasting groups had claimed that temperatures could reach as high as 28 degrees Celsius next Thursday, June 13, signaling the start of a heatwave.
However, the Met Office said reports of a heatwave were “not an accurate reflection of the current forecast”.
Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon told Yahoo News UK: “There is a signal that high pressure will influence the weather from the west and south-west later this weekend and early next week, which could reduce some of the showers in the north, although this would probably happen.” just bring the temperature back to near average for the time of year.”
A band of cloud and rain will continue to move south and east this afternoon, followed by brighter but fresher conditions 🌧️ 🌥️
Heavy and stormy showers are hitting Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland 🌦️ pic.twitter.com/ojNCIh4eXj
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 4, 2024
He said there will be a mix of sunshine and showers this week, as well as “a chance of some thunderstorm activity to the north.”
Dixon said: “Those further south will be drier overall, but even here temperatures will be somewhat moderate compared to recent days.”
Late last month the Met Office dismissed reports that there could be seven weeks of rain this summer.
While temperatures could reach 23 degrees Celsius in London and the South East on Tuesday, this will drop to the late teens in much of the country as the week progresses.
In its long-term forecast from June 8 to 17, the Met Office said there is “a small chance that a broader period will develop next week”.
What is a heat wave?
The Met Office says a heatwave is “an extended period of warm weather in relation to the expected conditions in the area at that time of year, which may be associated with high humidity”.
The UK heatwave threshold is said to be met when a location records a period of “at least three consecutive days” in which daily maximum temperatures reach or exceed the heatwave temperature threshold.
The threshold varies by country or province, from 25 degrees Celsius in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and south-west England to 27 degrees Celsius on the south-east coast of England, reaching 28 degrees Celsius in London and other inland areas in the south and southeast.
What causes a heat wave?
According to the Met Office, heat waves are more common when high pressure can develop over a particular area, usually in summer.
Because high-pressure systems move slowly, they can persist over an area for an extended period of time, days or even weeks, creating warm conditions.
The Met Office said: “They may occur in Britain due to the location of the jet stream, which is usually north of Britain in summer.
“This could cause high pressure to develop over Britain, which could lead to continued dry and calm weather.”
The Met Office said climate change is making heatwaves more likely, with heatwaves now 30 times more likely than before the Industrial Revolution due to the higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Does climate change make heat waves worse?
Many experts say climate change has caused sweltering summer temperatures to rise.
Dr. Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, said in July 2022 that the rising temperatures Britain is facing would not have been so high without global warming.
“Every heat wave we are experiencing now has become more frequent, longer and hotter due to climate change,” she said. “Of course, every extreme weather event also has an element of the chaotic natural variability of the weather system.
“Without climate change there would have been high temperatures, but they would not have been as high as what we will see. Whatever exactly we will see, we are sure it would have been cooler without climate change.”
Heat waves are becoming more intense and frequent, especially because overall temperatures are higher due to global warming, and so when weather systems such as high pressure occur in the summer, the heat they bring is amplified.
This is what the coming weather will look like for each region of the UK, according to the Met Office.
London and the South East
A mainly cloudy start with a chance of an occasional shower. Hot. It will be windy with outbreaks of rain, mostly light, spreading irregularly to the southeast during the afternoon. It will become drier from the northwest during the evening. Maximum temperature 23°C.
There will be sunny spells on Wednesday, but a chance of isolated and mainly light showers. The wind increases during the afternoon, especially on the coast. Maximum temperature 19°C.
Mostly dry with sunny spells, but a chance of showers on most days. There may be a better chance of showers on Thursday. Some quite cool temperatures, especially at night. Airy during the day.
South West
A rather cloudy start and a bit damp here and there, otherwise largely dry and clear initially. During the afternoon, a band of clouds and locally rain will develop. Towards the evening it becomes clearer, cooler and a little more breezy. Maximum temperature 18°C.
A fairly cool start on Wednesday, then a dry day with sunny spells for everyone. The wind is decreasing a bit, but it feels slightly cooler than the past few days. Maximum temperature 15°C.
Dry on Thursday with many sunny periods. A band of rain may move south on Friday. Saturday quite cloudy but mainly dry. Temperatures around normal, with some cold nights.
Midlands
A mainly dry start, followed by a band of clouds and rain, locally heavy, moving quickly southeastward during the afternoon. It will become drier and clearer during the evening. It becomes airier and feels cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 18°C.
A fresh start on Wednesday, then a mainly dry day with many sunny periods. Some showers are possible in the north. A fresh northwest wind adds to the cooler feeling. Maximum temperature 15°C.
Sunny spells and some showers again on Thursday. A band of rain may move across the south on Friday. Saturday quite cloudy but mainly dry. Temperatures around normal, with some cold nights.
North-East
During the morning the rain will move south-eastwards, sometimes heavy with strong winds, especially over the Pennines. Drier and clearer in the afternoon, with short sunny spells in the evening. Maximum temperature 16°C.
Wednesday there will be sunny spells and occasional showers, which can be heavy at times. The wind increases during the day, especially in and around the showers. Maximum temperature 14°C.
Sunny spells and stormy showers during this period, heavier and more frequent over the western hills. Some quite cool temperatures, especially at night. Best conditions on the east coast.
North West
A cloudy and humid start, with a band of locally heavy rain moving quickly southeastwards over all parts during the day. It will become clearer towards the evening with some scattered showers. Airy and cooler and fresher feeling. Maximum temperature 16°C.
A strong northwest wind will provide a cooler feeling on Wednesday. Sunny periods and locally heavy showers are most common in the north. Maximum temperature 13°C.
Sunny spells and some showers again on Thursday. A band of rain may move across the south on Friday. Cloudy and a few showers on Saturday. Temperatures around normal, with some noticeably cold nights.
Scotland
Cloudy with rain, sometimes heavy, in the morning. It will clear leaving a mix of clear or sunny spells and scattered stormy showers for the rest of the day. Best sunshine in the east. Maximum temperature 16°C.
Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine and scattered showers across the region, the best of the dry and sunny spells in the east. Maximum temperature 13°C.
Rain again on Thursday, it will decrease during the evening. A mix of showers and more persistent rain on Friday, easing later. Saturday will be drier with only a few showers.
Northern Ireland
Early rain will move southeast, leaving a mix of clear or sunny spells and scattered showers, especially in the west. The fresh westerly wind is decreasing. Maximum temperature 15°C.
Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine and scattered showers, stormy at times, but easing in the evening. Maximum temperature 14°C.
The coming days will remain unsettled with scattered showers or occasionally longer periods of rain, but still some good clear or sunny periods.
Wales
A mainly dry start, followed by a band of clouds and rain, locally heavy, moving quickly southeastward during the afternoon. It will become drier and clearer during the evening. It becomes airier and feels cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 15°C.
It will start fresh on Wednesday, after which it will be mainly dry with many sunny periods. Some showers are possible in the north. A fresh northwest wind adds to the cooler feeling. Maximum temperature 13°C.
Sunny spells and some showers again on Thursday. A band of rain may move across the south on Friday. Saturday quite cloudy but mainly dry. Temperatures around normal, with some cold nights.