When the two Champions League finalists headed to London, the contrasting moods among the squads said it all. For Real Madrid it is a sense of duty. There is of course excitement about returning to this stage, but also the realization that this is just what they do. They go to these games and win them. There is a sense of genuine wonder at Borussia Dortmund. Manager Edin Terzic describes it as “a dream”. This is only the third Champions League final in their history and the first in eleven years. Many of their players are aware that they may never get this opportunity again. For club stalwart Marco Reus, it may be the last chance to put his talent to good use and win a major trophy.
As rare as this feeling is for Dortmund, it is not so rare with this showpiece. The Champions League final is perhaps the biggest global event in club football – and perhaps the entire sport, after the World Cup final – but there has rarely been a showdown between the two best teams in Europe. They have come in the knockouts before, with Madrid and Manchester City usually involved in recent times. The curiosity of that goes back even further, through what has been one of the last remaining unpredictabilities of the Champions League. In the 11 years since Dortmund’s last appearance at this stage, there have probably been six finals in which there has been one big favourite. This is certainly the second in a row, after Inter Milan’s surprisingly tough 1-0 defeat against City last season.
It could also be the last year of this. From next season’s expanded “Super Champions League”, the knockout stages will be fully seeded after the first round’s open table. So while you might get Real Madrid and Arsenal on the same side of the draw again, it’s unlikely you’ll get all of Madrid, City, Arsenal and Bayern Munich on the same side. Or whoever their equivalents are as the top four teams next season. It will certainly be a little more difficult for teams that are not at that elite level, while they simply represent a different way in which elite football is constructed and developed.
It’s perhaps why this final should be enjoyed in the same way Dortmund’s players watch it. If it has to be the last of an era, this match almost represents an extreme. The simple numbers say it all, before you delve deeper into bigger issues like finances.
Madrid are going for their fifteenth Champions League and sixth in eleven years, while Carlo Ancelotti can win his fifth as manager. Dortmund will be hoping for just their second and first in 27 years.
This reflects the relative gap between positions in the league. With Real Madrid, the champions of Spain and Dortmund in fifth place in the Bundesliga, this is the biggest difference between the finalists’ positions in the competition since the creation of the Champions League in 1992. Only two previous finals can match this, namely 2001 between Bayern Munich and Valencia. and 2012 between Bayern and Chelsea. That was first against fifth and second against sixth respectively. The latter provided a ‘surprise’, but Chelsea’s long-term strength meant it didn’t come close to what a Dortmund win here would be.
That made for a somewhat strange build-up to this match for a Champions League final. It doesn’t feel epic, although that obviously won’t be the case for the tens of thousands of Dortmund fans traveling. You could almost call it the 2002 World Cup syndrome. As exciting as shocks and surprises are, they often suppress the actual finale. At that moment there is simply too big a gap. As a result, very few people will watch this match expecting anything other than a Madrid victory. The expectation is mainly about how long Dortmund can stay alive; how close they come to causing something big.
Ancelotti obviously doesn’t let Madrid think that way. He has already pointed out that people would have said the same about Dortmund’s participation in this final so far. The German team should probably have been eliminated by both Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain. Luck is a big part of why they’re here, fitting in with what was actually the more forgiving side of the draw.
That in itself has an emotional momentum that can take teams to the next level in cases like this.
It’s just that no one tends to go to a higher level than Madrid in these matches, and that includes the extent to which they are lucky. Ancelotti’s side should have lost their last final, against Liverpool in 2022, barring the excellence of Thibaut Courtois. Madrid won again. That’s what they do. Therefore, there is an additional psychological obstacle. Dortmund doesn’t just have to overcome Madrid’s current quality. They must also overcome the knowledge of their historical record in the final.
Madrid have not lost in this match since defeating Liverpool in 1981. That wouldn’t necessarily be surprising, apart from the fact that they have won eight consecutive Champions League finals in the meantime. That’s more finals than any other European club has seen in their entire history, apart from AC Milan, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Juventus and Barcelona.
It has to end at some point, so maybe in a season that has already had one surprise run; where have strange things happened? The Wembley showpiece has the potential to be a strange match. Both teams would prefer to stay at a distance. Terzic has made Dortmund more pragmatic. Ancelotti would prefer to simply release Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo at half-time. Between them, Jude Bellingham has suffered an injury.
There is also a central local rivalry with the way the England midfielder faces revived compatriot Jadon Sancho. The on-loan Dortmund winger is a Londoner, if not from the Wembley area. He was fantastic in the semi-final against Paris Saint-Germain to win the draw, but it would probably take something further to turn this around. Madrid simply has too much class, which could create even more holes in Dortmund’s porous backline. The best hope is that almost Terzic’s side can hold out as long as possible and then hope that that kind of knockout magic takes over.
It says a lot that we reach for the intangibles, but that was also the theme of last weekend’s FA Cup final. Manchester United surprised Manchester City. It will take even more time for Dortmund to shock Madrid, but it can happen.
In terms of previous games here, and recent versions of this match, both Wembley and UEFA could make use of it if this goes smoothly. The last UEFA event here was the disastrous Euro 2020 final. The last two Champions League finals have been logistical nightmares, with that match in Paris in 2022 lucky to avoid death.
Both the Football Association and UEFA have taken all of this into account. An outer perimeter still needs to be built, there are improved gates. The hope is that everything goes smoothly.
On the pitch itself, Madrid will simply try to do what they always do. Dortmund wants to give us something we haven’t seen for years.
The Champions League undoubtedly needs it. Another win in Madrid would just be more of the same, and the record would hardly mean anything more. For Dortmund it would be everything.