The play-offs are approaching with a super wild card weekend full of intrigue. The field of participants is wider than ever after a regular rollercoaster season. Any competitor among the bumpy giants, plucky newcomers and surprise packages can make a case for a deep playoff run, all will believe they can live another week until the league’s real heavyweights, San Francisco and Baltimore, join the fray.
What the Browns need to do to win: Joe Flacco must continue the fearsome approach that produced an improbable run to the playoffs. The 38-year-old’s five-game stats – 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns – extrapolated over 17 would make him an MVP contender. Keeping him well protected – he has been allowed an average of 2.6 seconds to work from the pocket – has been the key ingredient to the eye-popping passing numbers.
What the Texans need to do to win: Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik needs to show a little more confidence in CJ Stroud. The Texans were struggling against the Indianpolis Colts last week after the 75-yard touchdown on the opening play when Slowik tried and failed to establish the run. Devin Singletary’s 24 carries for 62 yards slowed them down considerably. Stroud needs to get more opportunities to play.
Key player: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. The best edge rusher leads the league’s stingiest passing defense. The consistency with which he beats offensive linemen, a 30% win rate that drops to 29% when two men beat him according to ESPN analytics, is his superpower. No quarterback is safe.
Prediction: Browns over Texans
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST/1:00 AM GMT)
What the Dolphins need to do to win: Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has to throw everything at Patrick Mahomes. Even if Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are healthy enough to play, Miami’s offense is unlikely to be the powerhouse it was earlier this year. That means Fangio’s unit has to do the heavy lifting through sacks and turnovers; their 56 QB takedowns rank third in the league.
What the Chiefs need to do to win: Kansas City needs to make a fresh start. Andy Reid will be happy to close the door after a dismal season in which the Chiefs surprisingly struggled on home turf; a 5-4 record was their worst under Reid at Arrowhead. Mahomes must field a limited offense that has produced 300 or more passing yards only twice this season (they did so 10 times in 2022). Miami’s own limitations from a long list of injuries should whet Mahomes’ appetite.
Key player: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins. Miami needs to get Waddle back in the lineup. Even if he’s not quite ready to return, the Dolphins need the attention he draws from a defense to help ease the burden on Tyreek Hill, who is himself dealing with a quadriceps and ankle injury.
Prediction: Leaders over dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1:00 PM EST/6:00 PM GMT)
What the Steelers need to do to win: The defense needs to bounce back after losing TJ Watt to injury. Mike Tomlin and coordinator Teryl Austin must work quickly to fill the gaping void left by the linebacker. What Pittsburgh hopes to bring about is a huge increase in production from backup QB Mason Rudolph and Najee Harris, who ran for 100 yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his career over the past two weeks. If the uptick comes out of nowhere, it’s because it is: 29% of George Pickens’ total yards this season have come in two games with Rudolph. Taking out all the guns might be their only hope.
What the Bills need to do to win: Find a way to convert in the red zone. For two weeks in a row, Buffalo has sputtered when it counts. Three trips inside Miami’s 20-yard line ended without points, the most of any team this season. Tomlin is as smart as they come and will capitalize on any advantage, especially with the Steelers proudly sitting atop the “no one believes in us” rankings.
Main role: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. When Allen is hot, Buffalo goes cruising. When he is cold, they crumble. Last week’s victory showed all his skill and imperfection. If he can get rid of the ball faster and stop throwing unnecessary interceptions, his dynamic running and passing without Watt bothering him will get the job done. Five straight wins to win the AFC East was impressive, but the season could have gone a lot smoother if Allen had let his teammates share the load.
Prediction: Bills on Steelers
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:30 PM EST/9:30 PM GMT)
What the Packers need to do to win: Jordan Love’s quality now feels assured after a mixed start as the figurehead of the franchise. Questions remain about a boom-or-bust defense having to play off the jitters that nearly cost them in a narrow escape against Carolina on Christmas Eve. They survived a back-and-forth battle with Dallas last season, but must avoid being sucked into another battle.
What the Cowboys need to do to win: Dallas fans need to keep the house fires burning. The team’s unparalleled bond with their home stadium has produced results that speak for themselves: they are 8-0 at AT&T Stadium this season. Their run game appears to be stuck without an overhaul of the offensive line, so they will lean on Dak Prescott’s arm. Brandin Cooks deserves some more targets; his speed can shred the Packers.
Key player: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys. A force of nature that pushed Dallas to reclaim the NFC East. Lamb had the best statistical season ever for a Cowboys receiver: 135 catches and 1,749 yards of phenomenal production. Can Green Bay stop him? Last year they struggled passing 150 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
Prediction: Cowboys over packers
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 8:00 PM EST/1:00 AM GMT)
What the Rams need to do to win: Los Angeles should be tough from the start. They have an elite quarterback with two devastating weapons at his disposal. Detroit’s run stop is too strong to give up any significant gains. Let Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp exploit the Lions backfield, which has given up 350 yards per game over the last three games.
What the Lions need to do to win: Detroit needs to feed off the incredible atmosphere at Ford Field. They are 6-2 at home, outscoring opponents by nine points per game this season. They need to keep the Rams guessing by combining the power of David Montgomery with the speed of Jahmyr Gibbs as much as possible, then hitting them with an Amon-Ra St Brown haymaker.
Key player: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Revenge. After 12 fruitless years supporting the Lions, Stafford returns for a first playoff game at Ford Field. The veteran is at the height of his powers, an area he knows well will only strengthen them further.
Prediction: Rams over lions
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST/1:15 a.m. GMT)
What the Eagles need to do to win: They need to come together on defense because, as it stands, their expensive top pick is a total dud. Start over with fresh eyes or start the car. If the defense is winning championships, someone who allowed 31 points per game over the last seven games will have to rethink quickly.
What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Avoid complacency. Baker Mayfield, the ultimate confidence player, will feel good about his chances with Mike Evans at his disposal. But that connection is what Philadelphia expects; switching them up by spreading the ball around will keep them on their heels. Chris Godwin, Rachaad White and even the underutilized Cade Otton can all make a difference.
Key player: Lavonte David, LB, Buccaneers. An elite run stopper whose speed, in diagnosing the opposition and making tackles, will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stifle Philadelphia’s potent rushing attack. David can lead a strong counter that puts the ball in the hands of Jalen Hurts. From there the game could be stitched together.
Prediction: Buccaneers over Eagles