Nine games without a home win.
We are all going through that grim period and we will gather again with hope at Vicarage Road on Good Friday when the small matter of new Championship leaders Leeds United stands between Watford and a first home league win since November 28.
Of course, for those who can’t make it, or choose not to (as many have done lately), there’s always the option to watch the game live on Sky.
But at a time when season ticket renewals are on the minds of fans and the club, the numbers who have – quite understandably – chosen not to attend the recent matches at Vicarage Road will be an important statistic.
In a year where we will see a general election, at this time of year there is a poll at every football club where fans can decide whether they want to put their ‘X’ in the box to renew their season ticket.
And just like the general election, there are polls that can be a barometer for how much supporters plan to renew. It’s the fans who vote with their feet by not showing up to home games in the weeks leading up to the renewal award announcement.
To be fair to Watford and the supporters, the rate of innovation in recent years has been extremely impressive – arguably far more successful than the team’s performance on the pitch.
Referring once again to the current run of nine games and four months without a home win: it’s a terrible run, but you really only have to go back two years to find a run of home results even more horrifying.
Between them, Claudio Ranieri and Roy Hodgson have managed 13 home games without a win, including a whopping 11 consecutive defeats at Vicarage Road.
When Watford beat Manchester United 4-1 at Vicarage Road on Saturday 20 November 2021, even the most negative and pessimistic Watford fans honestly thought the Hornets wouldn’t win again at home until 1 August 2022?!
Yet a combination of some very fair and sympathetic pricing from the football club and incredible fan loyalty has kept season ticket renewals healthy and vibrant.
It’s been relatively easy to criticize many of the decisions the club has made in recent years, but you have to repeatedly take your hat off to them when it comes to season ticket prices.
They are reasonably priced, compare favorably with other leisure activities, are very family friendly and ensure that the club absorbs the impact of issues such as inflation, higher energy bills and higher costs charged by suppliers.
And before anyone says ‘well, they should do that’, you don’t have to look very hard for clubs not following the Watford approach.
Middlesbrough are another team likely to finish mid-table, which would likely be an underachievement in the eyes of their fans.
How do Boro reward these fans? With a 6% increase for next season, this means the cheapest adult season ticket available for renewal is £510, outside of their Generation Red Family Zone.
While they offer under 11s a season ticket for £66 in the family zone, there are only discounts for under 18s everywhere and a season ticket costs £186.
Like Watford, they’re offering fans the chance to spread the cost with an interest-free option, but only over four monthly payments and not twelve like the Hornets – plus the charge for using the service adds around £50 to the cost of a season ticket for adults.
Bristol City have also announced that prices will increase for next season, with adult season tickets priced between £395 and £700.
The Robins have season tickets for under 12s priced between £65 and £155, and they also offer a monthly payment scheme, but you will be charged £25 per season ticket to use them.
Millwall have frozen the prices of their season tickets, with the cheapest price for adults not in their family mode being £390.
The Lions have five concession offers for younger fans in all stands: 18 to 21 years range from £200 to £280, while prices for under 18s (£185), under 16s (£100), under 12s (£50). ) and children under 6 (£25) are the same in all areas.
They have the option to spread the cost of the subscription price over four, six or ten monthly installments – however, there is a ‘arrangement fee’ which adds more than £30 to the cost of an adult subscription.
It is clear that not all clubs have announced their prices, especially as many are still unsure which division they will be playing in next season.
It will be interesting to see what Rotherham, for example, decide to do. They increased all adult season tickets by £25 and added £10 to all juniors ahead of this season…
Saturday’s win in Birmingham was a pleasant start for Tom Cleverley, who has made it clear that he hopes to use the games between now and the end of the season to send everyone into the summer feeling excited about the 24/25 -season.
He has just four chances to show the home fans enough to fill them with optimism in May – the first of which is against Leeds, followed by Preston (currently ninth in the table), Hull City (7th) and Sunderland (12th).
None of these goals are open, not least because they are all above the Hornets in the table.
The four remaining away trips to West Brom (5th), Ipswich (3rd), Southampton (4th) and Middlesbrough (10th) are even less attractive.
However, Watford’s obstacle in convincing fans to renew season tickets this time around will be that they have enjoyed only a small portion of the fun over the past three seasons at Vicarage Road, accompanied by a large amount of rubbish.
The 68 home league games played since the start of the 2021/22 season have produced just 18 wins – around one win in four.
There have been 29 defeats at Vicarage Road in that same time, and although 15 of these came in the Premier League relegation campaign, home form has not been great in the Championship.
In the 42 league games at Vicarage Road since the start of last season, Watford have won just 16 times – a 38% success rate on home ground in the second tier will not warm the hearts of the home faithful.
The Hornets have also lost one in three of their last 42 home games.
Watford have averaged 1.3 goals per home game since the start of the 21/22 season (81 in total), but let in 98 – again skewed by the 49 they flew in on their way to Premier League relegation.
Nevertheless, in 42 Championship games since the start of last season, Watford fans have still yet to see/hear celebrations from the corner of the Vicarage Road end 49 times.
It hasn’t been a fun three seasons at Vicarage Road, and that’s purely about the results and before you get to the head coaching carousel and everything else behind the scenes.
Season ticket revenue is crucial as it helps keep the club running between May and August, when there are no matches at the stadium and revenues drop.
Furthermore, the club will no doubt have budgeted for a certain extension amount, and then run that amount through the rest of the 24/25 plans.
With no more parachute payments and a weekly loss of £500,000 in the latest accounts, it’s hard to imagine the club won’t try to cut costs and scrutinize all spending.
And that’s if the season ticket renewal figures turn out to be what the club had budgeted for.
If they are lower, the budget spreadsheet may need to be put through the wringer a few more times.
A year ago, when all hopes of reaching the play-offs vanished and everyone knew players like Joao Pedro and Ismaila Sarr would be leaving, season ticket renewals were still going strong.
Now, 12 months and just five home league wins later, the coming weeks will be telling – both off and on the pitch.