DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Middle East will host its second consecutive U.N. climate conference in the next two weeks, with countries hoping to agree on new ways to prevent the planet from overheating by the end of the century. warms up. There are many distractions, especially the war between Israel and Hamas.
Dubai in the United Arab Emirates will welcome thousands of visitors from Thursday to December 12 for the 28th ‘Conference of the Parties’ of the UN climate conference, amid lingering doubts over how far the oil-rich country will go to end to a climate crisis. crisis largely caused by the use of fossil fuels.
Here’s a look at the background, stakes and challenges that await us at COP28.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST
The world has become hotter since last year’s conference in Egypt. Some experts say 2023 is already the hottest year on record. The Northern Hemisphere saw record highs this summer, and Brazil – where it is not yet summer – saw unprecedented heat and humidity this month.
“Almost the entire world is experiencing heat waves,” Petteri Taalas, head of the UN weather agency, said earlier this month.
There are increasing signs that the world – especially developing countries – is increasingly unprepared: this year’s monsoon season in India caused almost $1.5 billion in property damage. Tropical Storm Daniel caused deadly flooding in Libya in September. Last month, Hurricane Otis hit Mexico, raising fears that the government would spend more money on rebuilding than helping the people.
Even if periods of extreme cold return – as they currently do in Northern Europe – the general trend lines point to rising average global temperatures.
WHAT ARE THE SETTINGS OF THIS COP
Few experts and policymakers expect a major breakthrough this year.
The burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon into the atmosphere, remains the leading cause of global warming, and production continues to grow. Climate activists say efforts to develop wind, solar and other alternative energies are not moving fast enough.
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set a goal of limiting the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since the start of the industrial age – and the world is falling far short so far.
Many experts say that to reach that goal, carbon production in the atmosphere must peak next year and fall by nearly half by 2030.
Western countries are among those promoting ambitions to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by that year. Advocacy groups say this pushes the boundaries and avoids the main problem: reducing the burning of coal, oil and gas.
One debate will be about ‘down’ or ‘out’: whether countries agree to phase out fossil fuel use, as some wish, or eliminate them completely – a lofty goal of climate activists that is unlikely to be seriously considered are taken in the Gulf country.
Global warming has enormous consequences: it can upend local economies, worsen weather patterns, push people to migrate, and cause devastation for indigenous peoples who want to preserve their traditional cultures, among many other consequences.
Another challenge in Dubai will be raising funds for poorer countries to prepare for, respond to and cope with climate-related catastrophes. Last year, the creation of a ‘loss and damage fund’ was a major achievement, but it was difficult to figure out how to fill this fund.
WHO’S COMING
King Charles will join Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US climate czar John Kerry and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at what organizers say is the biggest COP ever. Pope Francis had planned to attend but canceled on doctor’s orders as he recovers from breathing problems.
Sultan al-Jaber, the head of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company and chairman of COP28, will come under scrutiny for his country’s apparent interest in oil and his call for a transition to sustainable energy. Many want to know whether the oil-rich Gulf states will commit more money to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition to greener technologies.
Governments from developing countries want help in combating the consequences of warming, which is hitting them particularly hard and which has occurred with little or no fault of their own.
Rich world countries will try to score political points in the global community in an increasingly polarized world, by providing handouts or sharing knowledge of their economic engines to needy countries – without forgetting their supporters at home.
Climate activists want to hold rich countries’ decision-makers to account for all the lofty but unfulfilled past promises they have made – and push for greater ambitions to change the way we live, from Tokyo to Tegucigalpa and Timbuktu.
WHAT CHALLENGES AWAIT
The hope at every COP becomes reality.
Just as last year, when Russia’s war in Ukraine weighed heavily in the backdrop of efforts to combat climate change, this year many eyes are focused elsewhere in the Middle East – on Israel’s military campaign in Gaza following the devastating attack on Hamas in Israel last month.
One challenge will be to revive attention to climate issues, which often fades after heat waves subside.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres traveled to Antarctica in recent days to highlight concerns about melting ice. Many companies support COP28: for example, US agricultural company Cargill this week announced an “accelerated commitment” to end deforestation – critics said it had not done enough – in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.
Developing countries want to take advantage of the luxuries that the rich world has long enjoyed – often by producing enormous amounts of carbon. Purchases of gas-guzzling SUVs and larger cars are growing around the world, even as electric vehicles continue to gain traction.
Inflationary pressures that have driven up the cost of living in recent months have made purchasing cleaner – often more expensive – technologies less attractive, and many consumers have demanded lower gasoline prices. Many countries continue to subsidize fuel costs to limit the pressure on their wallets.
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