Who’s under pressure in the NFL?

Photo: Julio Cortez/AP

Should Prescott’s chair feel warm to the touch? No. Is that right? Absolute. It flew under the radar, but Prescott has been the NFL’s best quarterback since week six. He leads the league in QBR and EPA/play since the debacle that was the 42-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in week five. And if you extrapolate that performance over the full season, he would still be in second place.

Still, Prescott can’t shake the narrative that he only beats up bad teams.

There is some truth in that. After Kellen Moore left for the LA Chargers, Mike McCarthy took control of the offense, removed the easy buttons and turned Dallas’ system into a precision-based, high-difficulty offense, just the kind Prescott likes. It requires perfection.

And in the early stages of the season, signs of trouble were buried under the rubble. The Cowboys couldn’t come up with any open explosive plays, instead relying on Prescott to march the offense down the field step by step. If you can’t make big offensive gains, a good defense can take advantage. It takes a lot from a quarterback to be perfect on 10- to 14-play drives against the Niners or Philadelphia Eagles.

But there was noise in those numbers. Now that Dallas has played a softer schedule, the numbers have evened out. They are now back to their perennial top five ranking in explosive plays with Prescott at the helm.

The story continues

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Adding more spice to the offense is the Cowboys’ best hope of competing with the best in the NFC: running a few 20-plus yard plays in a game, and relying on their all-around defense to get the ball to the to remove the other side. side. That was the plan against the Niners – and the result was a mess. But it remains the best formula for this team to make a run in the postseason.

Prescott will headline any postseason failure. But talk of him leaving at the end of the season is foolish, even if they suffer another disappointing loss in the play-offs. He’s playing as well as he has at any point in his career; he should be closer to MVP talk then exit rumors. If Dallas listens to daytime carnival barkers, there will be suitors all over the league willing to take Prescott off their hands, and the Cowboys would enter a period of self-imposed quarterback purgatory.

Pressure class: 2/10. Prescott isn’t going anywhere, nor should he.

AFC-NFC divide

The league has a lopsided conference problem. In the NFC you have the Eagles, Cowboys and Niners, which are in their own tier. Next up are the Detroit Lions…and not much else.

In the AFC, you can make a compelling case for the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs or Miami Dolphins to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. If you squeeze hard enough, you can talk yourself into the Jacksonville Jaguars, or maybe, just maybe, the Buffalo Bills – if they turn things around and make the playoffs.

So at the high end, things are relatively even between the AFC and NFC. But the AFC has a much stronger middle class: the Cleveland Browns have the best defense in the NFL; the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow keep winning games; the Indianapolis Colts are 6-5 despite missing part of the season by Anthony Richardson; the Cincinnati Bengals would be in the top tier if Joe Burrow was healthy; the New York Jets have one of the best defenses in the league, even if their offense looks like they’re trying to throw games. And you may have missed this, but the Denver Broncos defense is second in the league in EPA/play over the past five weeks after giving up 70 points to the Dolphins earlier this year. There has been a lot of bad football – and a lot of bad quarterback play – but up and down the board the AFC is competitive.

That is not the case on the other side of the aisle. Sloppy quarterback play, miserable coaching, Kirk Cousins’ injury and lackluster roster construction have pushed the conference past its core four. Five of the current six worst records in the league belong to the NFC. As things stand now, the winner of the NFC South will make the playoffs with a losing record (as the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers did last season).

And this isn’t just a problem this season. In a quarterback-driven league, almost all of the top signal callers are in the AFC and many of them are young, meaning it will remain that way for a while. The AFC has Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud. Richardson could very well be on that list next season and Deshaun Watson could be too if he ever returns to his form from a few years ago – and the Patriots could be added to the list if they end up with a top pick . In the NFC? There’s Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and Brocky Purdy. You could mention guys like Jared Goff, Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray, but they’re either old or unreliable.

It might be time to get the owners together and have a discussion about this whole conference thing. In about a decade it could be the NFC with the best players. Would a playoff system not separated by conferences be a fairer way to decide things?

Pressure class: 3/10. The NFL is unlikely to shake up decades of tradition. And an NFC Super Bowl champion will quiet the conversation.

Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

Are you a Billieber? The data dorks (hands up) have been saying for weeks that the bills are not as bad as their record. Their offense was fine, if not world famous. They’ve struggled defensively of late, but the raw talent and schematic stardust are there. They’ve lost close games.

These are all valid points. But our eyes and ears tell a different story. Small losses can be related to luck. But as they move up, it usually comes down to coaching.

All six of the Bills’ losses this season have come in one-score games, and McDermott has no one else to blame. He has jettisoned two coordinators in the past 12 months in an attempt to stir things up something of his team. The thinking going into this season was that he would retake control of the defense and effectively hand the offense over to Josh Allen to do with as he pleased.

It hasn’t worked. The Bills could be flying into the postseason. They still have the second-best point differential in the AFC despite their 6-6 record. The underlying statisticsremain strong across the board (outside the red zone). Since Allen can enter Superman mode at any time, they could even win a game or two in the playoffs if they make it. But this year it wasn’t about getting close to January. It was about righting the wrongs of consecutive, grim playoff losses. Anything short of a championship would have left McDermott’s seat nice and warm. As it is, he probably spends his afternoons surfing Zillow for good deals in Charlotte.

Pressure class: 9/10. It’s Super Bowl or bust. And a Super Bowl doesn’t seem likely.

Robert Kraft, New England Patriots

There isn’t much precedent for what Kraft is currently experiencing. Teams rarely fall from dynasty to dormancy in such a sudden manner. And if the descent is rapid, it is because the architects have left or retired.

Kraft is staring at the prospect of firing Bill Belichick, the most successful head coach in modern NFL history, or sanctioning a trade to recoup some value. It’s not like Kraft saw this coming, either, despite the Patriots’ floundering at quarterback since Tom Brady brought his talents to Tampa: the New England owner signed Belichick to a lucrative contract extension last offseason.

Kraft never owned the team when it was a national laughing stock. What is he doing? Does he really want to walk away from the best to ever do this? Does he eat Belichick’s contract? Does he hire a general manager and force it on Belichick, making him just a coach again? Will he accept a trade to another team? What if Belichick finds success elsewhere? Who would he hire to replace him? Who would like to be the man after The Guy? What if the follow-up hire falls flat on its face? What if the team is lining up to draft one of the top quarterback prospects? In which direction would that tip the balance? Does he trust Belichick with developing that quarterback after seeing what happened with Mac Jones? In case you haven’t noticed, that’s a lot of questions for a busy billionaire.

Pressure class: 6/10. Kraft faces the biggest decision in his 30 years as owner.

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

At this point, Staley’s seat isn’t so much hot as it is in an inferno. He’s the dog in the “this is fine” meme, staring blankly into space as the redundancy package rises around him.

The Chargers squandered one of the great assets in professional sports: a superstar quarterback on a rookie contract. Staley shouldn’t take all the blame for wasting Justin Herbert’s gifts, but there’s plenty on his desk. The close losses. The mind-boggling decisions in the game. The stubbornness. The defense – his calling card – that has been allergic to stopping anyone for three seasons.

Staley can still come up with some masterful one-and-done game plans as a defensive play-caller. But he’s a singles act these days, and head coaches have albums to deliver.

Pressure class: 10/10. Does anyone know a reasonably priced moving company?